The weekly briefing | 1 September 2014 Political and security risk updates Africa: Escalation in conflict highlights rising cross-border threat from Nigerian militants. Americas: Marina Silva’s ‘third way’ gains momentum ahead of Brazil’s presidential election. Asia and Pacific: Calls for Pakistani prime minister to resign as violent clashes continue and army consolidates its position. Europe: West warns Russia of heightened economic sanctions following incursion of Russian armed forces into eastern Ukraine. Middle East: Al-Nusra Front holds Fijian peacekeepers hostage in Syrian side of Golan Heights. Polar regions: Canadian foreign minister visits Norway and Denmark to promote Arctic cooperation. Africa Escalation in conflict highlights rising cross-border threat from Nigerian militants In recent weeks, the Nigerian Islamist militant group Boko Haram augmented its offensive from northeast Nigeria into the far north of Cameroon, forcing the Cameroonian government to further increase its deployment of soldiers to the area. On 25 August, militants carried out a house-to-house raid of the twin towns of Gamboru and Ngala, seizing control of the military base and police station and ultimately the whole town. The offensive forced thousands of residents and Nigerian military personnel to flee across the border into Cameroon. The militants then set up operations and occupied dwellings abandoned by the towns’ inhabitants. On 25-26 August, as Boko Haram advanced into the north of Cameroon near Fotokol in pursuit of the fleeing residents and Nigerian military personnel, Cameroonian security forces engaged the militants, killing 27. On 27 August, Boko Haram suffered heavy casualties as Cameroon’s military increased its operational capacity, deploying tanks to Fotokol and shelling the militants’ camp in Gamboru-Ngala from across the border. Although a significant number of Boko Haram fighters were killed, intelligence suggests that the militants still remain in control of the town. Boko Haram now appears to control at least three districts in Nigeria’s Borno State and a minimum of one in both Yobe and Adamawa states. Open Briefing | 1 International pressure and the palpable advance of Boko Haram into the north of the country has led the Cameroonian government to adopt a more forceful approach by deploying the Rapid Intervention Battalion (BIR) elite army units to the north to support the military and the Gendarmerie National already stationed in that part of the country. However, it is widely alleged that the latter two entities are corrupt and have been ineffectual in halting the advancing militants. It is unlikely that the Cameroonian government’s limited military intervention will have a tangible impact upon the situation in northeast Nigeria, further than containing Boko Haram’s advance into Cameroon along the A3 highway. Should the militant group continue to attempt to cross into Cameroon, it is highly likely it will be met with significant force, particularly around Fotokol, with a corresponding bolstering of Cameroonian forces at key locations in the Extreme North Region, such as Limani. Other developments Militants have attacked a high security prison within the national intelligence headquarters in the Bondhere district of the Somali capital, Mogadishu. On 31 August, suicide bombers detonated a vehicle loaded with explosives at the entrance of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) headquarters, which houses Godka Jilicow prison, before shooting their way into the building. Rebels exchanged gunfire with Somali National Army soldiers in an attempt to free jailed militants from the prison facility, though they failed to reach the cells in which the suspected militants were being held. Three soldiers and a civilian were killed in the battle along with seven rebels. Islamist extremist group al- Shabaab has claimed responsibility for the assault. The prime minister of Lesotho, Thomas Thabane, has fled from his official residence after receiving intelligence that he was the target of an assassination attempt amid an apparent military coup on 30 August. The leader of The All Basotho Convention (ABC), who, along with his family, fled to neighbouring South Africa, has accused the military of ousting him. The army denied the accusation; however, the military surrounded the prime minister's residence, disarmed police units and took control of a number of government buildings in the capital, Maseru, at approximately 04:00 (local time) on Saturday. Thabane has indicated that he will return to Lethoso. Deputy Prime Minister Mothetjoa Metsing, leader of the coalition party Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD), is now running the government, though sports minister and leader of the Basotho National Party (BNP) Thesele Maseribane has accused Metsing of being involved in the coup. Radio stations within the country have stopped broadcasting. At least 55 protesters were wounded during two days of clashes with security forces in N'zerekore, Guinea. Residents of the country’s second largest city staged riots on 28 and 29 August after Guinean Red Cross medical workers were instructed to spray a chemical sanitizer at a local market area as a preventative measure against the spread of Ebola virus disease (EVD). Market traders claim they were not given prior notice of the intention to sanitise the market, and rumours spread that the medical workers had in fact intended to transmit Ebola to the locals by way of the disinfectant spray. The medical workers were attacked, and protesters erected barricades around the city. A group of protesters, some armed, descended upon N'zerekore's hospital, and the police and military used tear gas to disperse the crowds. A 24-hour curfew was subsequently enforced within the city on 29 August. Although order was restored to the city at the weekend, further violence is possible as tensions remain high over the government’s alleged handling of the spread of Ebola. Government efforts are further hampered by the view among some Guineans that the Ebola threat is a scam, while others suggest that the virus has been imported. Open Briefing | 2 On the radar ° Protests possible in Mali on Independence Day on 22 September. ° Increased risk of terrorist attack by al-Shabaab surrounding the anniversary of the Westgate Mall attack, 21-24 September. ° Peaceful protests have been authorised in Lethoso over the coming days. Such protests are likely to turn violent if security personnel attempt to disperse demonstrators. ° Nigeria celebrates Independence Day on 1 October, which may present potential targets for Boko Haram militants. Americas Marina Silva’s ‘third way’ gains momentum ahead of Brazil’s presidential election Brazilian presidential candidate Marina Silva has widened her lead over President Dilma Rousseff according to the latest poll ahead of the country’s election in October. Silva took the helm of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) less than two weeks ago, after the party's original candidate, Eduardo Campos, died in a plane crash earlier this month. Since then, she has received a remarkable surge in support, while Rousseff’s reputation has been tarnished by the publication of weak economic figures. The most recent poll forecasts a tie between Rousseff and Silva in the first round of voting, with a victory for Silva in an eventual second round. Silva, who served as environment minister between 2003 and 2008, contested the 2010 election on the Green Party ticket, and earned nearly 20% of the vote. In 2013, she launched her own party, the Sustainability Network, which merged with Campos’ PSB less than a year ago. The rise of Silva’s ‘third way’ represents a fundamental shift in the country’s political spectrum, which is currently dominated by the ruling left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) and the centre-right Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB) party. Many have turned to Silva as a protest vote in the aftermath of the summer 2010 riots, in which millions of Brazilians took to the streets to demonstrate against government corruption, poor public services and overspending on the World Cup and the Olympics. Silva is seen as more business friendly than Rousseff, except in the area of agribusiness where she pushes for more regulations to better protect the environment. On 29 August, Silva presented her electoral programme centred on the theme of ‘direct democracy’. Among its major proposals, the manifesto argues for a more autonomous central bank, free public transport for students, and an increase in the share of public funds dedicated to health. In spite of Silva’s outstanding recent performance, it remains uncertain if she will be able to maintain her position as the frontrunner in the upcoming presidential election. Her party, the PSB, remains small in relation to the ruling PT and opposition PSDB in terms of both the size of its electoral support base and its financial capacity. In addition, many question the coherence of the merger between the Sustainability Network and the PSB, which diverge widely on their political and economic views. But regardless of her long-term performance, Silva’s candidacy will certainly weaken the support base of the PSDB candidate, Aécio Neves. Open Briefing | 3 Other developments A general strike on 28 August blocked most of Argentina’s transport network. The strike called by the country’s major unions was particularly widespread in the capital, Buenos Aires, and impacted maritime, air and road traffic. The Argentine government of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has until now refused to yield to the demands of the opposition unions. This is the third general strike faced by Fernández since she took office in 2007, and is the second so far this year. The Venezuelan opposition, Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD), staged a march on 28 August to protest against the implementation of a new biometric identification system. In a struggle to curb the development of black markets for the purchase of basic goods, the administration of President Nicolás Maduro revealed plans to instate a biometric identification system in the country’s major grocery stores.