The Timeline and Events of the February 2021 Texas Electric Grid Blackouts July 2021 [Type here] The Timeline and Events of the February 2021 Texas Electric Grid Blackouts A report by a committee of faculty and staff at The University of Texas at Austin July 2021 COMMITTEE CHAIRS Carey W. King, Research Scientist, Assistant Director, Energy Institute Josh D. Rhodes, Research Associate, Department of Mechanical Engineering Jay Zarnikau, Research Fellow, Department of Economics COMMITTEE MEMBERS Contributing Authors Ning Lin, Chief Economist, Bureau of Economic Geology Additional Members Erhan Kutanoglu, Associate Professor, Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering Benjamin Leibowicz, Assistant Professor, Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering Dev Niyogi, Professor, Department of Geological Sciences; Professor, Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering Varun Rai, Professor, LBJ School of Public Affairs; Director, Energy Institute Surya Santoso, Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering David Spence, Baker Botts Chair in Law, School of Law; Professor, Department of Business, Government, and Society Stathis Tompaidis, Professor, Department of Information, Risk and Operations Management, and by courtesy, Department of Finance Hao Zhu, Assistant Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering OTHER CONTRIBUTORS Erik Funkhouser, Director for Research Coordination and Partnerships, Energy Institute Brent Austgen, Graduate Research Assistant, Operations Research and Industrial Engineering Program, Department of Mechanical Engineering 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary .......................................................................................... 7 1. Introduction ............................................................................................. 12 1.1 Objective ................................................................................................................ 12 1.2. Energy in Texas ..................................................................................................... 13 2. Timeline of Events Related to February 2021 ERCOT Blackouts . 15 2.1. ERCOT’s Winter 2020/2021 SARA report ............................................................. 15 2.2. The Week Before Winter Storm Uri ...................................................................... 18 2.2.1. Weather and Load Forecasts and Alerts ................................................... 18 2.2.2. Recall of Power Plant Outages for Maintenance ...................................... 24 2.3. The Week of Winter Storm Uri (February 13-20, 2021) ....................................... 25 2.4. Generation Outages (Timeline) ............................................................................ 28 2.4.1. Generator Temperature Ratings Relative to Experienced Temperatures . 34 2.5. Load Curtailment, Requested and Achieved ........................................................ 36 2.5.1. Involuntary Load Shed .............................................................................. 36 2.5.2. Response to High Prices ........................................................................... 37 2.5.3. Deployment of Load Resources ................................................................ 38 2.5.4. ERS Program ............................................................................................. 38 2.5.5. Automated Load Shedding via Under-frequency Relays .......................... 39 2.5.6. Deployment of Various Demand Response (DR) Programs by Load- Serving Entities ................................................................................................... 40 2.5.7. Aggregate Levels of Demand Response ................................................... 41 2.6. Natural Gas and Operations during February 2021 .............................................. 41 2.6.1. Natural Gas Production ............................................................................ 41 2.6.2. Storage ...................................................................................................... 45 2.6.3. Natural Gas Demand ................................................................................ 48 2.6.4. Exports By Pipeline and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) ............................... 52 2.6.5. Texas Pipeline Exports .............................................................................. 53 2.6.6. Texas LNG exports ..................................................................................... 55 2.6.7. Natural Gas Infrastructure Participation in Load Curtailment .................. 56 3. Electricity and Natural Gas Financial Flows and Prices ................. 57 3.1. Energy Prices ......................................................................................................... 57 3.2. Ancillary Service Prices.......................................................................................... 59 3.3. PUCT Orders During February Blackout ................................................................ 59 3.3.1. Electricity Market Price Changes/Corrections During the Event .............. 60 3.4. Financial Fallout .................................................................................................... 64 2 4. A Comparison to Winter Events in 2011 and 1989 ......................... 70 4.1. December 1989 Winter Event .............................................................................. 70 4.2. February 2011 Winter Event ................................................................................. 71 4.3. Comparison of the Three Events .......................................................................... 73 5. Summary ................................................................................................. 76 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................ 77 Conflict of Interest Statements .................................................................. 78 References ....................................................................................................... 79 Appendix A. Short History of Texas Electric Grid and ERCOT: From the Beginning to 2021 .......................................................................................... 82 A.1. Why Does Texas Have Its Own Grid? .................................................................... 82 A.2. Wholesale Market Restructuring (Deregulation) and Adjustment Timeline ....... 84 A.3. Why isn’t ERCOT Connected to Other Grids? ....................................................... 87 A.4. Today’s ERCOT Wholesale Market ....................................................................... 88 A.5. Characteristics of the ERCOT Retail market ......................................................... 88 A.6. Summary: ERCOT History and Current Status ...................................................... 90 Appendix B. Internal ERCOT Meteorological Discussions Before the Storm ................................................................................................................ 92 Appendix C. Generator Outages Relative to Time Reaching Freezing Temperature .................................................................................................... 94 Appendix D. Texas Natural Gas Balance .................................................... 97 Appendix E. Other (non-energy) Infrastructures Impacted from Storm: Water and Housing ....................................................................................... 100 3 List of Figures Chapter One Figure 1.a ................................................................................................................................................ 13 Chapter Two Figure 2.a ................................................................................................................................................ 16 Figure 2.b ................................................................................................................................................ 17 Figure 2.c ................................................................................................................................................ 18 Figure 2.d ............................................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 2.e. .............................................................................................................................................. 22 Figure 2.f ................................................................................................................................................ 22 Figure 2.g ............................................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 2.h ............................................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 2.i ................................................................................................................................................. 25 Figure 2.j.. ............................................................................................................................................... 27 Figure 2.k...............................................................................................................................................