Sea Level Rise in the City of Vancouver: Mapping Coastal Flood Risk Sarah North, GISP Northwest Hydraulic Consultants Ltd. INNER HARBOUR – PORT, CONVENTION CENTRE SKYTRAIN, WEST COAST EXPRESS, FREIGHT TRAINS Photos: Port Metro Vancouver; City of Vancouver STANLEY PARK SEAWALL STANLEY PARK SEAWALL – KING TIDE DEC 2012 KITS BEACH AND POOL KITS BEACH AND POOL – Photos: City of Vancouver, LiveSmart BC KING TIDE DEC 2012 POINT GREY ROAD LOCARNO Photos: City of Vancouver PROPOSED HOSPITAL 2010 OLYMPIC VILLAGE FALSE CREEK GRANVILLE ISLAND Images: City of Vancouver, NHC EAST FRASERLANDS SOUTHLANDS AND DEERING ISLAND ARTHUR LAING BRIDGE, VANCOUVER TRANSIT CENTRE Photos: City of Vancouver Coastal Flood Risk Assessment Study Numerical Results and Recommendations Modelling Assessment • Coastal • Flood mapping • Mitigation and - SWAN adaptation • FCLs • Flood - Telemac • Vulnerability - Mike11 assessment • Stormwater • Consequence - SWMM assessment - Hazus Model Development: Sea Level, Joint Probability • Model Sea Level - Deterministic component: Tide - Probabilistic components: Storm Surge, Wave Setup, Wind Setup, Wave Runup - Modelled using Joint Probabilistic approach - Several different scenarios – different return periods, for different years (2013, 2100, 2200) • Add predicted Sea Level Rise caused by climate change - 0.6 to 2.0 m, depending on time horizon Model Development: Sea Level Rise Figure: British Columbia. (2013). Sea Level Rise Adaptation Primer. Ministry of Environment. Victoria. Model Development: Multiple Scenarios Scenario Year SLR Return Period 1 2013 none 1:500 year 2 2100 0.6 m 1:500 year 3 2100 1.0 m 1:500 year 4 2100 1.0 m 1:10,000 year 5 2200 2.0 m 1:10,000 year • Scenario 3 was used by City for planning. Model Development: Data inputs - DEM BC Place Stadium Rogers Arena Georgia Viaduct Pacific Blvd False Creek 250 m (800 ft) Model Development: Data inputs - DEM Bare Earth – removal of BC Place Stadium Planned removal of viaduct and reconfiguration of roads Model Development: Data inputs - Mesh Model Development: Data inputs - Mesh Multiple buildings generalized to one polygon Model Development: Validation King tide – 17 December 2012 Peak Water Level = 2.66 m GD Photos: City of Vancouver, LiveSmart BC Map Model Results Map Model Results Map Model Results Vulnerability Assessment Based on: Supply Chain Emergency Community Transportation Sewer Buildings Challenges Management Map: Arlington Group Consequence Assessment – Hazus Flood Depth- Damage & Asset Hazard Damage Loss Inventory (Depth) Curves Estimates For flooding, HAZUS estimates: • Displaced households • Shelter seekers • Buildings damaged • Building type damaged • Building losses % % Damageto Building • Debris generated Water Height above First Floor (ft) • Business interruption costs Graph: FEMA Hazus Flood Model Technical Manual Consequence Assessment – Hazus Hot spot map of total dollar losses Map and Graph: Ebbwater Consulting Recommendations • Re-examine emergency evacuation plans • Adapt flood plans based on changing SLR predictions • Account for research-supported increases in storminess • Plan for bare earth DEM development with future Lidar • Examine flooding of below-ground infrastructure • Gather data during future high water events • Increase stormwater pumping capacity • Identify and develop other mitigation and adaptation options • Implement measures to reduce risk along Fraser River Next Steps • Phase 2 work - Evaluating preferred mitigation options for key flood risk areas • Interest from others - Expanding assessment to other Burrard Inlet municipalities and Port facilities • Hazus modelling - Wider application of Canadian Hazus Flood Model to Lower Mainland municipalities as part of a regional flood vulnerability study currently under way Project Team • City of Vancouver • Port Metro Vancouver • Northwest Hydraulic Consultants Ltd - Bruce Walsh P.Eng., Charlene Menezes P.Geo, Vanessa O’Connor P.Eng., Sarah North GISP • Cascadia Coastal Research Ltd - Clayton Hiles P.Eng. • Arlington Group - Graham Farstad R.P.P., Amanda Grochowich • Ebbwater Consulting - Tamsin Lyle M.R.M., P.Eng. • Technical Advisory Committee THANK YOU! Sarah North, GISP GIS Analyst Northwest Hydraulic Consultants Ltd. email. [email protected].