ASSEMBLY ELECTION 2019 EXIT POLL - REPORT MAHARASHTRA 288 ACs INDIA TODAY GROUP Date: October 21, 2019 MAHARASHTRA Methodology & Sample Profile Face to Face interview with the questionnaire in 288 Assembly Constituencies Representative sampling across Demography & Geography Sample Size - 60,609 GEOGRAPHIC / भौगोलिक : Figures in % Rural / ग्रामीण 66 Urban / शहरी 34 Caste / जाति : Figures in % ST 10 NT/VJ 3 SC 11 OBC 20 Maratha / मराठा 23 Brahmin 3 General / जनरि 6 Muslim / मुस्लिम 8 Agri 1 Kunbi 5 Mali 1 Others 9 AGE / उम्र : Figures in % 18-25 15 26-35 28 36-50 35 51-60 13 61 & Above 9 % ग : Figures inﴂGENDER / लि Male / पु셁ष 67 Female / महहिा 33 Note: Difficult to get female respondents, but ratio has been extrapolated to 50/50. MAHARASHTRA - EXIT POLL - OCTOBER 21, 2019 1 Sample Profile FAMILY MONTHLY EXPENSES / पररवार का मालिक घरेिू खर्च : Figures in % BPL/Below 5,000 28 6-10,000 43 11-20,000 20 21-30,000 6 31,000 & Above 3 OCCUPATION / : व्यविाय Figures in % Unemployed 5 Housewife 10 Student 3 Labour 12 Farm Labour 21 Cobbler 1 Bicycle Rickshaw 1 Farmer 13 Skilled Professional / 8 कु शि पेशेवर कायच करने वािा * Small Shop / छोटी दकु ान ** 6 Service Pvt. / नौकरी Pvt. 5 Service Govt. / नौकरी Govt. 3 Professional / प्रोफेिनि *** 3 का व्यविाय 6 ﴂ Self Occupation / लवय Retired / ररटायर्च 3 * Skilled Professional: Electrician / Plumber / Guide / Pandit / Technician / Carpenter / Auto Driver / Driver डर्ि / िकनीलशयन / बढ़ई / ऑटो ड्राइवर / ड्राइवरﴂकु शि पेशेवर कायच करने वािा: इिेक्ट्रीलशयन / प्ि륍बर / गाइर् / प ** Small Shop: Tea Stall / Pan Shop / Saloon / Dhaba / Roadside / Howkers / Vegetable Seller / Fruit Seller छोटी दकु ान: र्ाय / पान / नाई / ढाबे / रोर्िाइर् / ठेिा / ि녍जी वािे / फि वािे *** Professional: Doctor / Advocate / Engineer / CA जीनयर / CAﴂप्रोफेिनि: र्ॉक्ट्टर / वकीि / इ MAHARASHTRA - EXIT POLL - OCTOBER 21, 2019 2 Sample Profile EDUCATION / : लशक्षण Figures in % Illiterate / अलशक्षक्षि 10 8th Pass / 8th पाि 21 10th Pass / 10th पाि 27 12th Pass / 12th पाि 22 Graduate / ग्रेजुएट * 16 Post-Graduate / पोलट - ग्रेजुएट ** 3 Professional Education / प्रोफेशनि डर्ग्री *** 1 Illiterate: Who can not read and write. आिा है। ﴂअलशक्षक्षि: स्जिे लिखना व पढ़ना नही * Graduate / ग्रेजुएट: B.A., B. Sc., B. Com ** Post-graduate / पोलट - ग्रेजुएट: M.A., M.Sc., M.Com., M. Phil., Phd *** Professional Degree / प्रोफेशनि डर्ग्री: B.E., M.B.B.S., B.Tech., M.E., M. Tech, MBA MAHARASHTRA - EXIT POLL - OCTOBER 21, 2019 3 EXIT POLL - MAHARASHTRA Seats Likely to Win Result Result Seats Exit Poll Exit Poll AE 2014 Alliance Party GE 2019 Contested Party Alliance (Converted to VS Seats) 164 BJP 109 - 124 122 122 BJP + 166 - 194 126 SHIVSENA 57 - 70 105 63 147 CONG 32 - 40 22 42 CONG + 72 - 90 121 NCP 40 - 50 23 41 VBA 237 VBA 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - OTHERS - OTHERS 22 - 32 22 - 32 16 20 BJP & Shivsena - Friendly fight on 2 Seats - AC No. 258-Man & 268-Kankavli CONG & NCP - Friendly fight on 4 Seats, AC No. 69 - Aheri, 123 - Nashik East, 140 - Ambernath & 252 - Pandharpur. CONG & NCP - Supporting Others Candidate in 24 Seats. Party Wise Vote Share (%) Figures in % Result Result Exit Poll Exit Poll AE 2014 Alliance Party GE 2019 Party Alliance (Converted to VS Seats) BJP 27 28 28 BJP + 45 SHS 18 23 19 CONG 19 16 18 CONG + 35 NCP 16 16 17 VBA + VBA 6 6 7 - OTHERS Others 14 14 10 18 MAHARASHTRA - EXIT POLL - OCTOBER 21, 2019 4 MAHARASHTRA EXIT POLL 2019 HIGHLIGHTS UNPARALLELED POWERPLAY OF REBELS Maharashtra has never witnessed such an Exceptional & Unparalleled Powerplay of rebels ever in any Election. • BJP: 40, SHS: 27 - Total 67 BJP+SHS • CONG: 09, NCP: 08 - Total 17 CONG+NCP Many rebel and other candidates likely to win 22 to 32 seats. Many of them are BJP rebels contesting against Shivsena. It would be interesting to see the outcome of the rebels powerplay. This Assembly election of Maharashtra will be remembered for such mass exodus in all the political parties. Devendra Fadnavis is the first chief minister to complete full term in 47 years after Vasantrao Naik in the third Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha (assembly) during 1967-72. CM is credited for maintaining harmony in a Coalition Government besides succeeding in getting stalwarts from the Opposition Parties to join BJP and inroads among Maratha community despite Maratha and Farmer protests and avoid anti-incumbency. Regional stalwarts of CONG (Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil, Harshvardhan Patil, Abdul Sattar, Nirmala Gaveet, Narayan Rane) & NCP (Ganesh Naik, Padam Singh Patil, Udayanraje Bhosale) pave the way for BJP which otherwise would have been a different story. BJP riding on land slide victory of GE 2019 and Abrogation of Article 370 clubbing National Security. It’s one sided in five regions - Vidarbha, Konkan, North Maharashtra and Mumbai, Marathwada for BJP/SS combined. Congress-NCP giving good fight in Western Maharashtra Strong Hold of Sharad Pawar. If CONGRESS - NCP alliance had declared Mr. Sharad Pawar as the CM candidate, it would have been a different situation. MAHARASHTRA - EXIT POLL - OCTOBER 21, 2019 5 Region-wise Vote Share Figures in % REGIONS BJP + CONG + VBA OTHERS North Maharashtra 45 37 4 14 Vidarbha 45 34 6 15 Marathwada 41 38 10 11 Konkan & Thane 52 27 4 17 Mumbai 51 29 5 15 Western - 38 43 6 13 Maharashtra Region-wise Seat Share (288 Seats) REGIONS (Seats) BJP + CONG + OTHERS North Maharashtra 32 12 3 (47) Vidarbha (62) 38 16 8 Marathwada (46) 29 15 2 Konkan & Thane 29 6 4 (39) Mumbai (36) 30 3 3 Western - 22 29 7 Maharashtra (58) MAHARASHTRA - EXIT POLL - OCTOBER 21, 2019 6 Region-wise Districts REGIONS (Seats) DISTRICTS North Maharashtra Ahmednagar, Dhule, Jalgaon, Nandurabar, (47) Nashik Akola, Amravati, Bhandara, Buldhana, Vidarbha (62) Chandrapur, Gadchiroli, Gondiya, Nagpur, Wardha, Washim, Yavatmal Aurangabad, Beed, Hingoli, Jalna, Latur, Marathwada (46) Nanded, Osmanabad, Parbhani Konkan & Thane Palghar, Raigad, Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, (39) Thane Mumbai (36) Mumbai City, Mumbai Suburban Western - Kolhapur, Pune, Sangli, Satara, Solapur Maharashtra (58) MAHARASHTRA - EXIT POLL - OCTOBER 21, 2019 7 Caste-wise Vote Share Figures in % Party ST NT/VJ SC OBC Maratha Brahmin BJP + 48 51 30 51 50 57 CONG + 35 33 37 28 37 26 VBA 2 3 21 7 2 2 OTHERS 15 13 12 14 11 15 Figures in % Party General Muslim Agri Kunbi Mali Other BJP + 60 14 59 52 54 46 CONG + 25 55 16 33 31 33 VBA 1 10 1 2 2 3 OTHERS 14 21 24 13 13 18 MAHARASHTRA - EXIT POLL - OCTOBER 21, 2019 8 Family Monthly Expense - wise Vote Share Figures in % BPL / 6,000 - 11,000 - 21,000 - 31,000 Party Below 10,000 20,000 30,000 & above 5000 BJP + 47 44 46 40 42 CONG + 32 35 35 39 39 VBA 7 7 6 6 5 OTHERS 14 14 13 15 14 Education - wise Vote Share Figures in % Up to Up to Up to Post - Professional Party Illiterate Graduate* 8th 10th 12th Graduate** Degree*** BJP + 45 47 46 44 43 44 43 CONG + 35 35 33 35 36 37 35 VBA 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 OTHERS 13 11 14 15 15 13 17 Illiterate: Who can not read and write. * Graduate: B.A., B. Sc., B. Com ** Post-graduate: M.A., M.Sc., M.Com., M. Phil., Phd *** Professional Degree: B.E., M.B.B.S., B.Tech., M.E., M. Tech, MBA MAHARASHTRA - EXIT POLL - OCTOBER 21, 2019 9 Age-wise Vote Share Figures in % 61 & Party 18-25 26-35 36-50 51-60 above BJP + 42 43 46 49 47 CONG + 36 34 35 33 35 VBA 8 7 6 6 5 OTHERS 14 16 13 12 13 MAHARASHTRA - EXIT POLL - OCTOBER 21, 2019 10 Occupation-wise Vote Share Figures in % Un- House Farm Party Student Labour employed wife Labour BJP + 42 50 42 45 45 CONG + 35 33 34 35 36 VBA 8 7 9 7 6 OTHERS 15 10 15 13 13 Figures in % Bicycle Skilled Small Party Cobbler Farmer Rickshaw Professional * Shop ** BJP + 46 42 45 45 47 CONG + 33 34 38 34 34 VBA 7 7 5 7 5 OTHERS 14 17 12 14 14 Figures in % Service Service Self Party Professional *** Retired Pvt. Govt. Occupation BJP + 46 44 44 39 44 CONG + 31 36 36 35 34 VBA 7 7 7 8 5 OTHERS 16 13 13 18 17 * Skilled Professional: Electrician / Plumber / Guide / Pandit / Technician / Carpenter / Auto Driver / Driver ** Small Shop: Tea Stall / Pan Shop / Saloon / Dhaba / Roadside / Howkers / Vegetable Seller / Fruit Seller *** Professional: Doctor / Advocate / Engineer / CA MAHARASHTRA - EXIT POLL - OCTOBER 21, 2019 11 Geographic-wise Vote Share Figures in % Party Rural Urban BJP + 44 46 CONG + 37 33 VBA 6 7 OTHERS 13 14 Gender-wise Vote Share Figures in % Party Male Female BJP + 42 48 CONG + 36 34 VBA 6 6 OTHERS 16 12 MAHARASHTRA - EXIT POLL - OCTOBER 21, 2019 12 What was the most important issue for you while voting in this election ? इि र्ुनाव मᴂ मिदान करिे िमय आपके लिए िबिे महत्वपणू च मुा क्ट्या था ? Issues % Development / ववकाि 44 गाई 11ﴂPrice rise / मह Unemployment / बेरोजगारी 10 Local candidate / लथानीय उ륍मीदवार 8 Political Party / राजनीतिक दि 6 4 ﴂFarmer distress / ककिानⴂ की िमलयाए Economic condition / आर्थचक स्लथति 3 ARTICLE 370 Removal from Jammu Kashmir / 2 ARTICLE 370 ज륍म ू कश्मीर िे हटाना Based on MLA candidate / 2 ववधायक पद के उ륍मीदवार के आधार पर Others / अन्य 10 MAHARASHTRA - EXIT POLL - OCTOBER 21, 2019 13 Whom would you like to be the next Chief Minister? ? त्री ककिे होना र्ाहहयेﴂआपके अनुिार अगिा मुख्यम Options % देवᴂद्र फर्णवीि 38 शरद पवार 12 अशोक र्ौहान 8 अस्जि पवार 8 पथ्ृ वीराज र्ौहान 5 बेर्कर 5ﴂप्रकाश आ उव ठाकरे 4 आहदत्य ठाकरे 4 तनतिन गर्करी 3 राज ठाकरे 2 नारायण राणे 1 ि पाटीि 1ﴂद्रकाﴂर् अन्य 9 MAHARASHTRA - EXIT POLL - OCTOBER 21, 2019 14 Why do you prefer BJP+ Govt.