2018 Overseas Citizen Population Analysis Report July 2020 FORS MARSH GROUP | 2018 Overseas Citizen Population Analysis 0 . INTRODUCTION The Overseas Citizen Population Analysis (OCPA) is an effort sponsored by the Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP) to learn more about the U.S. overseas citizen population and the ways in which they navigate the voting process.1 FVAP is statutorily mandated to report on the registration and voting activities of the populations it serves—including U.S. citizens living overseas—after each general election. A four-step process is used to better understand this population: 1. estimate the participation rate of the Overseas Citizen Voting Age Population (OCVAP) in the 2018 General Election; 2. compare the level of participation to that of the voting age population living in the United States; 3. determine to what degree that estimated difference in participation between the two populations is due to voting obstacles unique to the OCVAP; and 4. assess the extent to which policies designed to mitigate these obstacles are successful. Overseas Citizen Citizens of the United States who are living or located in another country. Overseas Citizen Voting Age Population (OCVAP) The subset of overseas citizens who are at least 18 years of age. This constitutes the voting-eligible population for the purposes of this study. Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) The corresponding population of voting age individuals living within the United States. This group serves as a comparison point for the OCVAP. Participation Rate The fraction of the voting age population that submitted a ballot and had a vote recorded within state vote history records. Estimating the voting participation rate of the OCVAP is difficult because the nature of living abroad makesVolume it hard to know 1: Populationhow many overseas citizensand Participationthere are, where they are Estimates located, and the numberand that Features are eligible to vote. of EstimatesOverseas produced Ballot by host countryRequesters statistical agenciesOverseas for the total number of U.S. born or U.S. citizen population are available from some countries for some years, but comprehensiveCitizen Citizens estimates of the forUnited any givenStates election who are year living are or generally located in unavailable another country. and information on the more relevant subpopulation of U.S. citizens who are voting age is even harder to obtain. The OCPAOverseas addresses Citizen this problem Voting Ageby using Population a statistical (OCVAP) model The averaging subset methodologyof overseas ci totizens estimate who both the arenumber at least of OCVAP 18 years individuals of age. This as well constitutes as their thedistribution voting-eligible across population countries. for the purposes of this study. Using this method results in a 2018 estimate of approximately 2.9 million voting age citizens living abroadCitizen. At the Voting same Age time Population there were (CVAP) an estimated The corresponding 135,507 votes population attributed of to voting individuals age with non- U.S.individuals addresses livingidentified within in thestate United and lStates.ocal government This group a servesbsentee as ballot a comparison records. Thispoint yields for the an OCVAP. 1 TheParticipation OCPA was first conducted Rate for The the fraction2014 General of theElection voting and was age released population in February that 2016. submitted The report cana ballot be found and here: https://www.fvap.gov/uploads/FVAP/Reports/FVAPhad a vote recorded within state vote-OCPA_201609_final.pdf history records. The report for the 2016 General Election, released September 2018, can be found at: https://www.fvap.gov/uploads/FVAP/Reports/FVAP-2016-OCPA-FINAL-Report.pdf FORS MARSH GROUP | 2018 Overseas Citizen Population Analysis 1 Volume 1: Population and Participation . Estimates and Features of Overseas Ballot estimated 2018 OCVAP voting rate of 4.7%, as compared to a 2018 General Election voting rate of approximately 65% for the CVAP—implying a substantial difference in participation between the overseas and CVAPs. To what degree is this voting gap due to systemic obstacles to voting unique to the OCVAP as opposed to individual factors such as differences in motivation? The answer lies, in part, in country- specific population estimates and vote totals derived from state and local absentee ballot request and voter files. In particular, by comparing the OCVAP voting rates between countries with different levels of international mailing-related obstacles to voting, the relationship between these obstacles and voting rates were estimated at the country level. These estimated relationships were used to generate a prediction for what the voting rate would have been without the OCVAP-specific obstacles for each country. These estimates are combined to create a predicted, obstacle-free OCVAP estimated participation rate of approximately 31.7%. The difference between the estimated predicted participation rate and the estimated actual OCVAP participation rate (27.0%) implies that over half of the estimated 60 percentage point voting gap between overseas and CVAP is due to obstacles to voting specific to OCVAP. The OCPA also relies heavily on data from the Overseas Citizen Population Survey (OCPS) to gain insight into how overseas citizens mitigate these obstacles—and thus how policy changes might help this group. The OCPS is conducted as a part of FVAP’s analysis of the overseas citizen population and is distributed to overseas citizens who requested an absentee ballot for the 2018 General Election. The OCPS asks respondents to share the means by which they requested and returned their absentee ballots. Data from the OCPS is analyzed in conjunction with overseas population estimations to reveal geographic patterns in obstacles to voting and to help better understand how various policies can affect voting from around the world. Survey results are discussed below, and full cross-tabulations can be found in Volume 2. Analysis of the OCPS data reveals that absentee ballot requesters located in countries where mail or geography make receiving a physical ballot a challenge are more likely to receive and return their absentee ballot electronically. These findings suggest that policies permitting electronic ballot receipt and return are able to overcome issues of international mailing reliability. And yet, this does not reflect the majority of overseas voters’ experiences; many absentee ballot requesters did not receive their ballot electronically, and only a minority of voters with the option to return their ballot electronically actually did so. This suggests that knowledge about electronic modes of absentee voting may be imperfect, and points to a potentially significant role that FVAP can play in reducing the voting gap. FORS MARSH GROUP | 2018 Overseas Citizen Population Analysis 2 . Volume 1: Population and Participation Estimates and Features of Overseas Ballot Requesters FORS MARSH GROUP | 2018 Overseas Citizen Population Analysis 3 . Volume 1: Population and Participation Estimates and TABLE OF CONTENTS OVERSEAS CITIZEN POPULATION ESTIMATES ......................................................................................................... 5 The Total Overseas Citizen Population ..................................................................................................... 5 The OCVAP ................................................................................................................................................ 8 2018 OVERSEAS CITIZEN BALLOT REQUEST AND VOTING RATES .......................................................................... 11 EXAMINING THE CVAP–OCVAP VOTING GAP ....................................................................................................... 14 Defining the CVAP–OCVAP Voting Gap ................................................................................................... 15 The Obstacles Gap .................................................................................................................................. 17 Impact of Voting Obstacles in 2018 ........................................................................................................ 17 IMPACT OF CHANGES IN BALLOT DELIVERY AND RETURN MODES ....................................................................... 23 CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS ....................................................................................................................... 27 Next Steps ............................................................................................................................................... 27 FEATURES OF OVERSEAS BALLOT REQUESTERS: EVIDENCE FROM THE OVERSEAS CITIZEN POPULATION SURVEY 27 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 29 Who are Overseas Ballot Requestors?.................................................................................................... 30 Participation in the 2018 General Election ............................................................................................. 32 FVAP Resources ....................................................................................................................................... 35 Sources of Voting Information ...............................................................................................................