European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity An Overview of System Adequacy: Winter Review and Summer Outlook Report 2009 ENTSO-E • Boulevard Saint-Michel, 15 • 1040 Brussels • Belgium • Tel +32 2 737 15 80 • Fax +32 2 741 69 49 • [email protected] • www.entsoe.eu European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity Contents 1 Executive Summary .......................................................................................................3 1.1 Winter Review 2008/09....................................................................................................3 1.2 Summer Outlook 2009 .....................................................................................................8 2 Introduction and Methodology ...................................................................................11 2.1 Scope & Objectives of the Report ..................................................................................11 2.1.1 Winter Review Report ..................................................................................................11 2.1.2 Summer Outlook Report..............................................................................................11 2.2 Sources of Information & Methodology ..........................................................................11 2.2.1 Winter Review Report ..................................................................................................11 2.2.2 Summer Outlook Report..............................................................................................12 2.3 List of Contributing Countries ........................................................................................12 3 Winter Review 2008/09 ................................................................................................15 3.1 Summary of Winter Outlook ...........................................................................................15 3.2 Winter Review by Region ..............................................................................................16 3.3 Summary of the Effects of the Russia-Ukraine Gas Dispute .........................................23 3.4 Summary of Other Factors Affecting Supply/Demand ...................................................27 4 Summer Outlook 2009.................................................................................................28 5 Lessons Learnt ..............................................................................................................35 6 Appendices ..................................................................................................................36 6.1.1 Appendix 1: Individual Country Responses to Winter Review ...................................37 6.1.2 Appendix 2: Individual Country Responses to Summer Outlook ...............................87 6.1.3 Appendix 3: Summer Outlook/Winter Review Questionnaire ...................................129 • Page 2 ENTSO-E • Boulevard Saint-Michel, 15 • 1040 Brussels • Belgium • Tel +32 2 737 15 80 • Fax +32 2 741 69 49 • [email protected] • www.entsoe.eu European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.1 Winter Review 2008/09 BALTIC STATES Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania Average temperatures were higher than forecast. There were no significant transmission grid outages in the Baltic countries during the winter season. UKTSOA/ATSOI Great Britain, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Weather conditions were in line with historic averages, and demands were slightly lower than forecast. Generation was able to meet demand at all times, and power exports/imports were supplied as required. NORDEL Denmark, Finland, (Iceland), Norway and Sweden Warm/normal weather conditions and economic recession resulted in lower demands. There were no risks to system adequacy. NORTH WESTERN UCTE Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Switzerland In general, load was lower than expected due to economic conditions (Swiss values will be available in late Summer 2009). Apart from in Austria, climatic conditions at winter peak period were on the whole unfavourable, especially with a cold spell at the beginning of January and a storm in France on 24 January. Despite this, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg report no particular stress on the system. Austria resorted to higher imports than expected, due to lower generation. 1 The regions used in this section relate to the former TSO associations in Europe (UCTE, Nordel, Baltso, UKTSOA and ATSOI). The members of these associations have now formed ENTSO-E: the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity. The former regional groupings have been used in the Winter Review for consistency, but future reports will employ the regional structure(s) designed by ENTSO-E. • Page 3 ENTSO-E • Boulevard Saint-Michel, 15 • 1040 Brussels • Belgium • Tel +32 2 737 15 80 • Fax +32 2 741 69 49 • [email protected] • www.entsoe.eu European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity In Belgium the reserve level of 1000 MW, corresponding with the assumption of autonomous national power supply, was not available for a period of two weeks. Nevertheless, compliance with security levels was met by the use of import capacity made available by Elia. Week 2 in particular saw simultaneously high demand during the cold spell and unavailability of generating units, so that a combination of measures was necessary, including imports by market players, activation of load shedding contracts, utilization of intra-TSO and other reserves and use of phase-shifters to alleviate the North to South loop-flow. In the same week, France consumption reached its maximum historical value for three consecutive days and, as forecast in the Winter Outlook Report, up to 3500MW of physical imports were recorded. No particular problem occurred in Germany; the TSOs only mentioned some periods when network- and market-related measures were necessary as a result of wind energy integration. Low voltages were measured on the Swiss grid in November, when wind generation was high in Germany. The commissioning of the second system Slavetice (CZ) -Drnrohr (AT) in October 2008 solved the congestion experienced in the past on the Czech-Austrian border. From 1st January 2009, the Swiss control areas were unified to a single control area managed by swissgrid. NORTH EASTERN UCTE Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovak Republic and Ukraine-West (Ukraine provided no contribution to this report). Load was lower than expected in every country, due to the economic situation. The temperature in Hungary was close to that of previous year. In Poland, the winter was longer and colder than the previous one. The Czech Republic and Slovakia both experienced a cold January after mild November and December. No particular stress was reported by Poland. Slovakia underlined the shutdown of the second unit of Bohunice nuclear power plant on 31st December 2008, following the commitments negotiated for becoming a Member of the European Union; the corresponding energy was covered by imports. CEPS (Czech Republic) reported significant stress on their interconnection with Germany and internal transmission grid in November, as wind generation in Germany was very high; Czech generation re-dispatch and change of network topology were necessary. Gas supply from Russia was interrupted in January in Hungary (for 3 weeks), the Czech Republic and Slovakia (for 2 weeks) as a result of the Russia/Ukraine dispute. Poland • Page 4 ENTSO-E • Boulevard Saint-Michel, 15 • 1040 Brussels • Belgium • Tel +32 2 737 15 80 • Fax +32 2 741 69 49 • [email protected] • www.entsoe.eu European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity experienced only a partial loss of supply of Russian gas because their gas system is also connected to Russia via Byelorussia. No impact on the electricity generation-demand balance was observed in the Czech Republic, the whole domestic gas demand being covered by national storage capacities and a long-term import contract with Norway allowing for quick increase of gas imports. The interruption of supply had no noticeable impact on the Polish power system either, since only 2.5% of the national generation is gas-fired and gas CHPs burn gas coming from local (Polish) deposit. Conversely, Slovakia had to rely only on their national gas storage and, according to the Gas Regulation, wholesale gas customers had to reduce their consumption down to the safety level, which resulted especially in reduced activity for the industry. The gas-fired units’ capacity was reduced by 45%, as most of the units are not able to run on alternative fuel. Nevertheless, no additional electricity import was observed because the load dropped as a result of economic conditions and reduced industrial activity following the gas consumption limitation. In Hungary, although 37% of generation capacity is gas-fired, most of the generating units switched to alternative fuel, so that the reduction in electricity generation capacity was only 380MW, which was balanced by increased imports. Gas supply was interrupted to industry, also resulting in lower electricity demand. SOUTH EASTERN UCTE Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, FYROM, Greece, Montenegro, Romania and Republic of Serbia (No information was provided by Montenegro and Republic of Serbia) In general a reduction in demand was registered in most of the countries in comparison to the previous year (Bulgaria, Greece,