CORE Metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk Provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2012-03 Smallpox as a Bioweapon Should We Be Concerned Musson, Gail C. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/6839 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS SMALLPOX AS A BIOWEAPON: SHOULD WE BE CONCERNED? by Gail C. Musson March 2012 Thesis Advisor: Anne Clunan Second Reader: Jeffrey Knopf Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED March 2012 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Smallpox as a Bioweapon: Should We Be Concerned? 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Gail C. Musson 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ______N/A______. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) There is debate in the weapons of mass destruction and bioterrorism literature over whether the threat from smallpox is exaggerated or realistic; however, there has been insufficient evaluation of the factors that indicate whether the threat is valid or overblown. Insufficient weight has been given to whether there are groups or individuals who are capable or have demonstrated the intent to use smallpox as a weapon, which should be key factors in evaluating the level of threat posed by the virus. To address the issue of the gap in the specific risk assessment of a smallpox attack, the following issues will be considered: (1) capability––whether smallpox is a realistic agent for terrorists to use; (2) motivation––what types of terrorists might pursue smallpox as a bioweapon; and (3) deterrence––whether current U.S. and international policies are likely to impact this decision. I conclude that the threat the United States faces from a smallpox attack is more remote than is implied by the amount of concern it generates in reports and preparedness exercises. Terrorists are unlikely to be able to master the acquisition, production, weaponization and dissemination of the virus, and would likely pursue other types of weapons. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Smallpox, Variola virus, Variola major, Bioterrorism, Biowarfare 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 145 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited SMALLPOX AS A BIOWEAPON: SHOULD WE BE CONCERNED? Gail C. Musson Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., University of Rochester, 2004 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (HOMELAND SECURITY AND DEFENSE) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL March 2012 Author: Gail C. Musson Approved by: Anne Clunan Thesis Advisor Jeffrey Knopf Second Reader Daniel J. Moran Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT There is debate in the weapons of mass destruction and bioterrorism literature over whether the threat from smallpox is exaggerated or realistic; however, there has been insufficient evaluation of the factors that indicate whether the threat is valid or overblown. Insufficient weight has been given to whether there are groups or individuals who are capable or have demonstrated the intent to use smallpox as a weapon, which should be key factors in evaluating the level of threat posed by the virus. To address the issue of the gap in the specific risk assessment of a smallpox attack, the following issues will be considered: (1) capability––whether smallpox is a realistic agent for terrorists to use; (2) motivation––what types of terrorists might pursue smallpox as a bioweapon; and (3) deterrence––whether current U.S. and international policies are likely to impact this decision. I conclude that the threat the United States faces from a smallpox attack is more remote than is implied by the amount of concern it generates in reports and preparedness exercises. Terrorists are unlikely to be able to master the acquisition, production, weaponization and dissemination of the virus, and would likely pursue other types of weapons. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. SMALLPOX AS A THREAT .........................................................................1 1. Smallpox Has Been Eradicated; Is It Still a Concern? .....................2 2. Background of the Disease ..................................................................6 3. Virus Characteristics ...........................................................................8 4. Disease Characteristics ......................................................................10 5. Transmission ......................................................................................13 B. VACCINATION AND ITS IMPACT ON THREAT PERCEPTION ......15 1. National Smallpox Vaccination Campaign ......................................18 2. Public Opinion and Vaccination .......................................................20 C. MISPERCEPTIONS AND EXAGGERATIONS IN GOVERNMENT PREPAREDNESS EXERCISES ..................................................................23 1. Dark Winter .......................................................................................23 2. Atlantic Storm ....................................................................................25 D. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................27 II. IS SMALLPOX REALISTIC FOR TERRORISTS TO USE? .............................29 A. ACQUIRING SMALLPOX ..........................................................................29 B. SYNTHETIC ENGINEERING OF THE SMALLPOX VIRUS ...............30 1. Is it Possible? ......................................................................................30 2. Is it Realistic to Think that Terrorists are Capable of This? .........32 C. WEAPONIZING SMALLPOX ....................................................................35 1. Laboratory and Scientific Requirements.........................................36 2. Characteristics of the Virus that Make It Suitable for Weaponization ....................................................................................39 3. Technological Difficulties and Barriers to Dissemination ..............40 a. An Infected Terrorist ..............................................................45 b. Liquid Smallpox in Bomblets or Sprayers .............................45 c. Dried Smallpox Spread through the Air ................................48 4. Weaponization Success in the Soviet Union ....................................49 5. Reliability of Sources Providing Claims of Success ........................53 6. “Brain Drain” from the Former Soviet Union? ..............................56 D. EVIDENCE OF INTENT OR CLAIM TO USE SMALLPOX AS A BIOWEAPON OUTSIDE THE SOVIET UNION .....................................59 1. Al Qaeda .............................................................................................59 a. Al Qaeda’s Claims and Reasoning .........................................59 b. Assessments about al Qaeda ...................................................61 2. Iraq ......................................................................................................65 3. Iran ......................................................................................................68 4. North Korea ........................................................................................69 E. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................71 vii III. WHAT KINDS OF TERRORISTS MIGHT PURSUE SMALLPOX AS A BIOWEAPON ............................................................................................................73 A. DOES THIS TYPE OF ATTACK MATCH A PARTICULAR