JANUARY 2016 CENTRAL WEST & ORANA AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES FINAL REPORT Department of Planning and Environment rmcg.com.au This report has been prepared by: RMCG 135 Mollison Street, BENDIGO VIC 3550 PO Box 2410, BENDIGO DC VIC 3554 P: (03) 5441 4821 E: [email protected] W: www.rmcg.com.au ABN: 35 154 629 943 Offices in Bendigo, Melbourne, Torquay, Warragul and Penguin (Tasmania) Key Project Contact Shelley McGuinness M: 0408 194 993 E: [email protected] C:\Users\trimnelr.DEC\Desktop\CWO\CENTRAL WEST & ORANA.docx CENTRAL WEST & ORANA AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES | DEPARTMENT OF PLANNING AND ENVIRONMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 4 REPORT PURPOSE ............................................................................................................................................................. 4 DATA SOURCES .................................................................................................................................................................. 4 REGIONAL CONTEXT .......................................................................................................................................................... 4 2 REGIONAL AGRICULTURE 6 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................... 6 AGRICULTURAL LAND USE ................................................................................................................................................ 8 EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE ..................................................................................................................................... 11 VALUE CHAIN ..................................................................................................................................................................... 12 MAJOR TRENDS ................................................................................................................................................................ 13 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS .............................................................................................................................................. 14 3 MAJOR AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY SECTORS 15 4 BROADACRE CROPPING 16 CURRENT SITUATION ....................................................................................................................................................... 16 INDUSTRY TRENDS ........................................................................................................................................................... 18 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND PRODUCTIVITY .............................................................................................................. 21 BUSINESS SCALE TRENDS .............................................................................................................................................. 22 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS .............................................................................................................................................. 24 5 LIVESTOCK 25 CURRENT STATISTICS - MEAT ......................................................................................................................................... 25 CURRENT STATISTICS - WOOL ........................................................................................................................................ 29 INDUSTRY TRENDS ........................................................................................................................................................... 29 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND PRODUCTIVITY .............................................................................................................. 31 BUSINESS SCALE TRENDS .............................................................................................................................................. 31 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS .............................................................................................................................................. 33 6 PERENNIAL HORTICULTURE 34 INDUSTRY STATISTICS ..................................................................................................................................................... 34 INDUSTRY TRENDS ........................................................................................................................................................... 36 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND PRODUCTIVITY .............................................................................................................. 37 BUSINESS SCALE TRENDS .............................................................................................................................................. 38 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS .............................................................................................................................................. 38 7 ANNUAL HORTICULTURE - VEGETABLES 39 INDUSTRY STATISTICS ..................................................................................................................................................... 39 INDUSTRY TRENDS ........................................................................................................................................................... 39 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND PRODUCTIVITY .............................................................................................................. 40 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS .............................................................................................................................................. 41 8 REGIONAL TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE 42 REGIONAL FREIGHT TASK ............................................................................................................................................... 42 COMMODITY MOVEMENT AND SUPPLY CHAIN LOGISTICS .......................................................................................... 44 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE ..................................................................................................................................... 46 GROWTH IN FREIGHT DEMAND ....................................................................................................................................... 46 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS .............................................................................................................................................. 47 9 IRRIGATION 48 MACQUARIE VALLEY ......................................................................................................................................................... 48 LACHLAN VALLEY .............................................................................................................................................................. 49 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS .............................................................................................................................................. 50 10 CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 51 CLIMATE PROJECTIONS ................................................................................................................................................... 51 CLIMATE CHANGE AND HORTICULTURE ........................................................................................................................ 53 CLIMATE CHANGE AND BROADACRE AGRICULTURE ................................................................................................... 54 RMCG Environment | Water | Agriculture | Policy | Economics | Communities CENTRAL WEST & ORANA AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES | DEPARTMENT OF PLANNING AND ENVIRONMENT STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS .............................................................................................................................................. 55 11 MAINTAINING REGIONAL COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES 56 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS .............................................................................................................................................. 56 12 OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK 57 POLICY AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT ........................................................................................................................ 57 STAKEHOLDER VIEWS ...................................................................................................................................................... 57 Horticulture .......................................................................................................................................................................... 58 Livestock ............................................................................................................................................................................. 58 APPENDIX 1: STATISTICAL AREA BOUNDARIES 60 APPENDIX 2: LGA GVAP DATA 61 RMCG Environment | Water | Agriculture | Policy | Economics | Communities EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report examines the current status and trends relevant to the main agricultural industries within the Central West & Orana region in NSW and identifies strategic implications for policy to inform development of the Central West & Orana Regional Growth Plan. The Central West & Orana region is located in central NSW and includes the major town centres of Dubbo, Bathurst, Mudgee, Orange, Parkes and Forbes. The region covers a total area of 125,666 square kilometres or 16% of NSW (Figure 1) and comprises twenty Local Government Areas (LGA) including: Bathurst,