Climate Change, Food Security, and Socioeconomic Livelihood in Pacific Islands This report assesses the impact of climate change on agriculture and fisheries in three Pacific Island countries, including the impacts on agricultural production, economic returns for major crops, and food security. Alternative adaption policies are examined in order to provide policy options that reduce the impact of climate change on food security. The overall intention is to provide a clear message for development practitioners and policymakers about how to cope with the threats, as well as understand the opportunities, surrounding ongoing climate change. Project countries include Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands. About the Asian Development Bank ADB’s vision is an Asia and Pacific region free of poverty. Its mission is to help its developing member countries reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their people. Despite the region’s many successes, it remains home to the majority of the world’s poor. ADB is committed to reducing poverty through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Based in Manila, ADB is owned by 67 members, including 48 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. About the International Food Policy Research Institute The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), established in 1975, provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. The Institute conducts research, communicates results, optimizes partnerships, and builds capacity to ensure sustainable food production, promote healthy food systems, improve markets and trade, transform agriculture, build resilience, and strengthen institutions and governance. Gender is considered in all of the Institute’s work. IFPRI collaborates with partners around the world, including development implementers, public institutions, the private sector, and farmers’ organizations. IFPRI is a member of the CGIAR Consortium. CLIMATE CHANGE, FOOD SECURITY, AND SOCIOECONOMIC LIVELIHOOD IN PACIFIC ISLANDS ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA Tel.: +1.202.862.5600 • Skype: ifprihomeoffice Fax: +1.202.467.4439 • Email: [email protected] www.ifpri.org CLIMATE CHANGE, FOOD SECURITY, AND SOCIOECONOMIC LIVELIHOOD IN PACIFIC ISLANDS M.W. Rosegrant R. Valmonte-Santos T. Thomas L. You C. Chiang Reminder: This is the copyright and disclaimer page to be used in new ADB publications as of January 2015. This page now reflects ADB’s move to Open Access and use of a Creative Commons (CC) IGO license. 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If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADBPlease and contact IFPRI [email protected] cannot be held liable or for [email protected] any claims arising asif youa result have of questions your use or of comments the material. with respect to content, or if you wish to obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, Attributionor for permission—In toacknowledging use the ADB logo.ADB and IFPRI as the source, please be sure to include all of the following information: Author. Year of publication. Title of the material. © Asian Development Bank and IFPRI [and/or Publisher]. Note: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. https://openaccess.adb.org. Available under a CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO license. PleasePrinted contact on [email protected] paper or [email protected] if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish to obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use the ADB logo. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. ADB recognizes “Fiji Islands” as Fiji. Contents Figures and Tables v Acknowledgments xiv Abbreviations xv Weights and Measures xviii Foreword xix Executive Summary xx I. Introduction 1 Overview 1 Analytical Framework 3 Vulnerability of Pacific Island Countries to Climate Change 7 Limitations of the Study 11 II. Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Security: Key Trends and Current Status 15 General Environment and Development Conditions in the Study Countries 15 Current Agriculture and Food Security Context 18 III. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Security: Models Used and Analysis of Results 27 Overview of Models Used by the Study 27 DSSAT Model: Application and Analysis