The Global Climate System Review 2003 SI m* mmmnrm World Meteorological Organization Weather • Climate • Water WMO-No. 984 socio-economic development - environmental protection - water resources management The Global Climate System Review 2003 Bfâ World Meteorological Organization Weather • Climate • Water WMO-No. 984 Front cover: Europe experienced a historic heat wave during the summer of 2003. Compared to the long-term climatological mean, temperatures in July 2003 were sizzling. The image shows the differences in daytime land surface temperatures of 2003 to the ones collected in 2000. 2001. 2002 and 2004 by the moderate imaging spectroradiomeier (MODISj on NASA's Terra satellite. (NASA image courtesy of Reto Stôckli and Robert Simmon, NASA Earth Observatory) Reference: Thus publication was adapted, with permission, from the "State of the Climate for 2003 "• published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Volume 85. Number 6. J'une 2004, S1-S72. WMO-No. 984 © 2005, World Meteorological Organization ISBN 92-63-10984-2 NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Contents Page Authors 5 Foreword Chapter 1: Executive Summary 1.1 Major climate anomalies and episodic events 1.2 Chapter 2: Global climate 9 1.3 Chapter 3: Trends in trace gases 9 1.4 Chapter 4: The tropics 10 1.5 Chapter 5: Polar climate 10 1.6 Chapter 6: Regional climate 11 Chapter 2: Global climate 12 2.1 Global surface temperatures .... 12 2.2 Upper-air temperature 13 2.2.1 Lower troposphere 13 2.2.2 Mid-troposphere 14 2.2.3 Lower troposphere 14 2.3 Global precipitation 14 2.4 Northern hemisphere snow cover 16 Chapter 3: Trends in trace gases 18 3.1 Carbon dioxide (CO?) 18 3.2 Methane (CH4) . 19 33 Carbon monoxide (CO) 20 3.4 Decreases in ozone-depleting gases in the troposphere 20 Chapter 4: The tropics 22 4.1 ENSO and the tropical Pacific 22 4.1.1 Overview 22 4.1.2 Equatorial Pacific Ocean sea-surface and sub-surface temperature evolution 22 4.1.3 Atmospheric circulation 1^ 4.2 Tropical storms 24 4.2.1 Atlantic hurricane season 24 4.2.2 Pacific tropical storms 25 4.2.3 South-west Indian Ocean tropical storms 28 Chapter 5: Polar climate 30 5.1 Antarctic 30 5.1.1 Surface climate 30 5.1.2 Antarctic stratospheric ozone 31 5.2 The Arctic 32 Chapter 6: Regional climate 3H 6.1 North America . 34 6.1.1 Canada 34 Page 6.1.2 United States 35 6.1.3 Mexico 37 6.2 Central America 38 6.3 South America 39 6.4 Europe 40 6.4.1 Overview 40 6.4.2 Summer heat wave 41 6.5 Africa 43 6.5.1 North Africa 43 6.5.2 West Africa 44 6.5.3 Eastern Africa/the Greater Horn 45 6.5.4 Southern Africa 47 6.6 Asia 48 6.6.1 China 48 6.6.2 South-west Asia 48 6.6.3 Russia (including European Russia) 49 6.6.4 Monsoon 50 6.6.5 East Asian monsoon 51 6.7 Australasia and the South-West Pacific 52 6.7.1 Australia 52 6.7.2 South-West Pacific 54 6.7.3 New Zealand 54 Chapter 7: Seasonal summaries 56 References 60 Authors Lisa V. Alexander, David E. Parker and Tara and David Levinson (NOAA/NESDIS Ansell (Hadley Centre for Climate National Climatic Data Center, North Prediction and Research, Met Office, Carolina, USA) Bracknell, Berkshire, UK) Brad Garanganga (Drought Monitoring Peter Ambenje (IGAD Climate Predictions Centre. Harare. Zimbabwe) and Applications Centre, Nairobi. Stanley Goldenberg and Christopher Kenya) Landsea (NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane Tercio Ambrizzi (University of Sao Paulo. Research Division, Florida, USA) Brazil) James Hansen (NASA Goddard Institute for Omar Baddour (National Meteorology Space Studies, Columbia University, Direction. Rabat, Morocco) New York. USA) Gennady Belchansky (Institute of Ecology. Malcolm Haylock (Climatic Research Unit, Moscow, Russia) University of East Anglia, UK) Gerald D. Bell. Muthuvel Chelliah. Timothy Rupa Kumar Kolli (Indian Institute foi- Eichler, Michael S. Halpert, Kingtse Mo, Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India) and Wassila M. Thiaw Charlotte Mcbride (South African Weather (NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Service, Pretoria. South Africa) Center. Washington D.C.. USA) Simon Mcgree (Fiji Meteorological Service. Michael A. Bell. Suzana J. Camargo and Fiji) Emily K. Grover-Kopec (International David Phillips (Environment Canada, Research Institute for Climate Ottawa. Ontario. Canada) Prediction. New York. USA) David A. Robinson (Rutgers University, Eric Blake and Richard Pasch (NOAA/NWS New Jersey, USA) National Hurricane Center, Miami, Fatimeh Rahimzadeh (Islamic Republic of Florida. USA) Iran Meteorological Organization. Olga N. Bulygina (All-Russian Research Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran) Institute of Hydrometeorological Jim Salinger (National Institute of Water and Information, Obninsk, Russia) Atmospheric Research. Newmarket, Philippe Caroff (Tropical Cyclone Warning Auckland. New Zealand) Centre. RSMC La Réunion. Météo- Russell C. Schnell and Robert S. Stone France) (NOAA/ERL Climate Monitoring and John C. Christy (University of Alabama, Diagnostics Laboratory, Boulder, Huntsville. Alabama. USA) Colorado, USA) Miguel Cortez Vazquez (Servicio Andrew Watkins (Australian Bureau of Meteorolôgico Nacional, Mexico City, Meteorology, National Climate Centre, Mexico) Melbourne. Australia) Arthur Douglas (Creighton University. Panmao Zhai (China Meteorological Omaha, Nebraska. USA) Administration. Beijing. China) David C. Douglas (USGS Alaska Science Center, Juneau, Alaska, USA) Sheldon Drobot (The National Academies, Washington. D.C. USA) Karin L. Gleason, Jay II. Lawrimore. David II. Levinson, Matthew Menne, Anne M. Waple (STG, Inc.). Connie Woodhouse Contributors Scott Stephens, Candace Tankersley, Trevor Wallis, Richard Heim and Stuart Hinson (National Climatic Data Center, USA), Nick Rayner (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK), Gareth Marshall (British Antarctic Survey, UK), Bill Chapman (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA), CD. Keeling, K. Thoning, S.A. Montzka, J.H. Butler, T. Thompson, D. Mondeel, J. Elkins, P.C. Novelli and E.J. Dlugokencky (NOAA/Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory/OAR, USA), Thomas Estilow (Rutgers University, USA) Acknowledgements &* Support was provided through a grant from the NOAA Office of Global Programs/Climate Change Data and Detection Program and the WMO/ICSU/IOC World Climate Research Programme. Foreword Since 1993, the World Meteorological of western Africa and enhanced Organization (WMO), in cooperation with precipitation over Afghanistan and its Members and through its World Climate neighbouring countries. Programme Department and the One of the major challenges for the Commission for Climatology, has issued meteorological and hydrological annual Statements on the Status of the communities is the need to contribute to Global Climate. The 2003 Statement improved protection of life and property. described extreme weather events and Enhanced weather, climate and hydrological provided a historical perspective on some services are being implemented to of the variability and trends that had contribute to reducing adverse human, occurred during that year. The 2003 edition social and economic impacts of natural of the Global Climate System Review disasters and of extreme weather and provides a wider geographical perspective climate events. Among others, this is done and complements the Statement. Both of through increased awareness and these publications provide input to the preparedness of people and societies to periodic assessments made by the face such events. WMO/United Nations Environment Through its Programmes, WMO Programme (UNEP) Intergovernmental contributes actively to the timely provision Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). of authoritative climate statements, reviews, The information contained in this assessments and descriptions which make Review enhances the scientific important contributions to sustainable understanding of the changes in climate development and to the implementation of and the associated impacts that have the United Nations Millennium occurred in the past, making it possible to Development Goals. improve on our projections for the future. This Review is produced under the Through continuing research and the auspices of the Climate System Monitoring collection of consistent and complete Project of the World Climate Data and observations by WMO and its Members, Monitoring Programme (WCDMP), initiated progress towards an even better in 1984 following a recommendation of the understanding of the Earth's climate system Ninth World Meteorological Congress is possible. (1983). Some of the influence of weather and Special appreciation is extended to Dr climate on human well-being and on the Andrew Watkins (Australia) for his excellent environment are highlighted in the Review. work as coordinator of this edition of the Tropical cyclones in various parts of the Revieiv. world resulted in loss of life and destruction of property. Droughts affected the livelihood of many people, and heat waves caused thousands of deaths in Europe and South-West Asia. On the other hand, climate variability also produced benefits to society—from abundance of enriching sunlight for vegetable and orchard crops in western Europe to above (M. Jarraud) normal rainfall across the Sahelian region Secretary-General Chapter 1 Executive Summary 1.1 Major climate