Deliverable C.4: Report on the heat related impact and adaptation assessment July 2017 DELIVERABLE C.4: REPORT ON THE HEAT RELATED IMPACT AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT DELIVERABLE C.4: REPORT ON THE HEAT RELATED IMPACT AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT Acknowledgements This report was produced under co-finance of the EC LIFE programme for the Environment and Climate Action, in the framework of Action C4 “Heat-related impact and adaptation assessment” of the project LIFE UrbanProof (LIFE15 CCA/CY/000086) “Climate Proofing Urban Municipalities”. The project is being implemented by the following partners: Coordinator Beneficiary Department of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment (Cyprus) Associated beneficiaries National Technical University of Athens (Greece) National Observatory of Athens (Greece) University of Venezia (Italy) Municipality of Reggio Emilia (Italy) Municipality of Strovolos (Cyprus) Municipality of Lakatamia (Cyprus) Municipality of Peristeri (Greece) 1 DELIVERABLE C.4: REPORT ON THE HEAT RELATED IMPACT AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT Contents List of Figures....................................................................................................................................5 Executive Summary...........................................................................................................................7 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................9 1 Impact Assessment Methodology ............................................................................................11 1.1 Social Vulnerability Assessment Methodology .................................................................12 1.1.1 Age ..............................................................................................................................13 1.1.2 Illiteracy .......................................................................................................................13 1.1.3 Low-income.................................................................................................................14 1.1.4 Chronic diseases ..........................................................................................................14 1.1.5 Hospital beds ...............................................................................................................14 2 Heatwaves and health..............................................................................................................16 2.1 Impact assessment...........................................................................................................16 2.1.1 Hazard indicators.........................................................................................................16 2.1.2 Exposure indicators......................................................................................................17 2.1.3 Social sensitivity indicators ..........................................................................................17 2.1.4 Indicator’s scoring........................................................................................................18 2.1.4.1 Municipalities of Lakatamia and Strovolos............................................................19 2.1.4.2 Municipality of Peristeri ........................................................................................20 2.1.4.3 Municipality of Reggio Emilia................................................................................21 2.2 Impact maps for each municipality ...................................................................................23 2.2.1 Municipalities of Lakatamia and Strovolos...................................................................23 2.2.2 Municipality of Peristeri ...............................................................................................27 2.2.3 Municipality of Reggio Emilia.......................................................................................30 2.3 Proposed adaptation measures ........................................................................................33 3 High temperatures and energy demand...................................................................................34 3.1 Impact assessment...........................................................................................................34 3.1.1 Hazard indicators.........................................................................................................34 3.1.2 Exposure indicators......................................................................................................35 3.1.3 Social Sensitivity indicators..........................................................................................35 3.1.4 Indicator’s scoring........................................................................................................36 2 DELIVERABLE C.4: REPORT ON THE HEAT RELATED IMPACT AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT 3.1.4.1 Municipalities of Lakatamia and Strovolos............................................................36 3.1.4.2 Municipality of Peristeri ........................................................................................38 3.1.4.3 Municipality of Reggio Emilia................................................................................39 3.2 Impact maps for each municipality...................................................................................40 3.2.1 Municipalities of Lakatamia and Strovolos...................................................................41 3.2.2 Municipality of Peristeri...............................................................................................44 3.2.3 Municipality of Reggio Emilia.......................................................................................47 3.3 Proposed adaptation measures........................................................................................50 4 Ozone exceedances .................................................................................................................51 4.1 Impact assessment...........................................................................................................51 4.1.1 Hazard indicators.........................................................................................................51 4.1.2 Exposure indicators .....................................................................................................54 4.1.3 Social sensitivity indicators ..........................................................................................54 4.1.4 Indicator’s scoring........................................................................................................55 4.1.4.1 Municipalities of Lakatamia and Strovolos ............................................................55 4.1.4.2 Municipality of Peristeri ........................................................................................57 4.1.4.3 Municipality of Reggio Emilia................................................................................58 4.2 Impact maps for each municipality...................................................................................59 4.2.1 Municipalities of Lakatamia and Strovolos...................................................................60 4.2.2 Municipality of Peristeri...............................................................................................64 4.2.3 Municipality of Reggio Emilia.......................................................................................67 4.3 Proposed adaptation measures ........................................................................................70 5 Peri-urban fires ........................................................................................................................72 5.1 Impact assessment...........................................................................................................72 5.1.1 Hazard indicators.........................................................................................................72 5.1.2 Exposure indicators......................................................................................................74 5.1.3 Indicator’s scoring ........................................................................................................75 5.1.3.1 Municipalities of Lakatamia and Strovolos ............................................................75 5.1.3.2 Municipality of Peristeri ........................................................................................76 5.1.3.3 All municipalities...................................................................................................76 5.2 Impact maps for each municipality ...................................................................................78 5.2.1 Municipalities of Lakatamia and Strovolos ...................................................................78 3 DELIVERABLE C.4: REPORT ON THE HEAT RELATED IMPACT AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT 5.2.2 Municipality of Peristeri...............................................................................................80 5.3 Proposed adaptation measures........................................................................................82 References ......................................................................................................................................85 ANNEX A POTENTIAL ADAPTATION MEASURES