Stellenbosch Municipality 2019 STELLENBOSCH: AT A GLANCE 1. DEMOGRAPHICS 1 2. EDUCATION 5 3. HEALTH 10 4. POVERTY 15 5. BASIC SERVICE DELIVERY 18 6. SAFETY AND SECURITY 22 7. THE ECONOMY 26 8. PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND 32 SOURCES 34 Stellenbosch: At a Glance Population Estimates, 2019; Actual households, 2016 186 274 52 374 2018 2018 Matric Pass Rate 85.2% Gini Coefficient 0.609 Retention Rate 72.5% Learner-Teacher Ratio 24.9 Human Development Index 0.71 2018/19 13 59.2% 62 13.6 Actual number of reported cases in 2018/19 1 140 191 2 146 57 182 Percentage of households with access to basic services, 2016 98.5% 71.0% 98.1% 90.9% 65.1% 2018 2018 Unemployment Rate Increased demand for basic services (narrow definition) Worsening income inequality 37 9.9% Deteriorating education outcomes Contribution to GDP, 2017 Finance, insurance, real estate & Wholesale & retail trade, catering Manufacturing business services & accommodation 21.5% 20.3% 16.8% DEMOGRAPHICS Accurate and reliable population data lies at the heart of the municipal budget and planning process as it is the primary variable informing the demand for basic services and the subsequent allocation of resources. Changes in population figures can mostly be attributed to three broad demographic processes namely, fertility, mortality and migration rates. This chapter provides a concise yet meaningful overview of key demographic variables that will assist with municipal planning and budgeting, namely estimates of population size, a sex ratio analysis, the distribution of population projections within age cohorts, dependency ratios, the number of households and household size compositions as well as an overview of population density per local municipal area. The demographic data provided in this Chapter was sourced from the Department of Social Development who used Stats SA’s 2018 Mid-Year Population Estimates (2002 - 2030) to project population growth for the period 2019 to 2025. Data source: Department of Social Development, 2019 1 2019 Socio-economic Profile: Stellenbosch Municipality POPULATION 350 000 300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 Witzenberg Drakenstein Stellenbosch Breede Valley Langeberg 2019 142 466 284 475 186 274 186 796 117 450 2020 145 812 289 123 190 251 188 948 119 813 2021 149 189 293 846 194 292 191 048 122 204 2022 152 498 298 683 198 268 193 150 124 685 2023 153 987 301 349 200 157 194 104 126 018 With a population of 186 274 in 2019, Stellenbosch is the third most populated municipal area in the Cape Winelands District (CWD) and is expected to growth to 200 157 by 2023, equating to an average annual growth rate of 1.8 per cent. The estimated population growth rate of Stellenbosch is slightly higher than that of the CWD at 1.6 per cent and on par with the Western Cape average annual growth rate of 1.8 per cent over the same period. All Districts: Sex Ratio (SR), 2019 – 2023 Municipality 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Drakenstein 97.7 97.6 97.6 97.5 97.5 Stellenbosch 97.2 97.2 97.2 97.2 97.6 Breede Valley 92.3 91.9 91.5 91.1 91.4 Langeberg 97.2 97.2 97.2 97.2 97.7 Cape Winelands District 97.7 97.6 97.6 97.5 97.7 Western Cape 97.3 97.4 97.4 97.5 97.5 The overall sex ratio (SR) depicts the number of males per 100 females in the population (Moultrie et al., 2013: 9). As per above table, there are more males than females in the Stellenbosch municipal area. The SR for Stellenbosch fluctuates slightly towards 2023 which can be attributed to a wide range of factors such as an increase in female mortality rates and the potential inflow of working males to the municipal area. There are in general less males than females across the various municipal areas of the CWD. 2 2019 Socio-economic Profile: Stellenbosch Municipality Stellenbosch: Age Cohorts, 2019 – 2025 Children Working Age Aged Dependency Year 0 – 14 Years 16 – 65 Years 65+ Ratio 2019 45 105 131 887 9 282 41.2 2022 47 544 140 077 10 647 41.5 2025 49 749 145 910 11 806 42.2 Growth 1.6% 1.7% 4.1% - The above table depicts Stellenbosch’s population composition per age cohorts. These groupings are also expressed as a dependency ratio which in turn indicates who are part of the workforce (Age 15 - 64) and those, who are depending on them (children and senior citizens). A higher dependency ratio implies greater pressure on social systems and the delivery of basic services. Between 2019 and 2025, the largest population growth was recorded in the 65+ aged cohort which grew at an annual average rate of 4.1 per cent. This predicted growth rate increases the dependency ratio towards 2025. HOUSEHOLD SIZES Stellenbosch: Household size, 2019 – 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 Household size refers to the number of people per household. Although the number of households in the Stellenbosch area are increasing, the actual size of households is generally on a downward trend from 2019 and will remain steady from 2020 to 2023. Contributing factors to a stagnation in household size growth include, but are not limited to, lower fertility rates, occurrences of divorce, ageing population, etc. 3 2019 Socio-economic Profile: Stellenbosch Municipality POPULATION DENSITY Colour Code Population per km² 0 - 10 11 - 20 21 -30 31 - 40 41 - 50 50+ Amidst rapid urbanisation across the Western Cape, population density figures Witzenberg will aid public sector decision makers to mitigate environmental, individual health and service delivery risks. In 2019, the population density of the Breede Valley Cape Winelands District (CWD) was 43 Stellenbosch persons per square kilometre. In order of Langeberg highest to lowest, the various local municipal areas in the CWD compare as Drakenstein follows: Stellenbosch 224 people/km2 Drakenstein 185 people/km2 Breede Valley 49 people/km2 Langeberg 26 people/km2 Witzenberg 13 people/km2 4 2019 Socio-economic Profile: Stellenbosch Municipality EDUCATION The quality of education is closely correlated with economic development and social cohesion. Dramatically improving our education outcomes is an imperative not just to achieve the economic growth rates that South Africa needs to end poverty and increase inclusion, but also to tackle social ills such as crime and substance abuse. Data source: Western Cape Education Department, 2019 5 2019 Socio-economic Profile: Stellenbosch Municipality LEARNER ENROLMENT Breede Valley Drakenstein Langeberg Stellenbosch Witzenberg 2016 32 558 47 601 17 838 26 085 18 048 2017 32 860 48 208 18 213 26 544 18 070 2018 33 389 49 268 18 374 27 087 18 377 The average annual growth in learner enrolment for the Western Cape across the period 2016 to 2018 is expected to be 2.3 per cent. The highest growth in learners is expected to occur in the Stellenbosch municipal area (1.9 per cent) whilst the lowest growth is estimated to be in the Witzenberg (0.9 per cent). LEARNER-TEACHER RATIO It is commonly assumed that children receive less personalised attention in larger class environments and that high learner-teacher ratios are detrimental to improved educational outcomes. Factors influencing the learner-teacher ratio is the ability of schools to employ more educators when needed and the ability to collect fees. Breede Valley Drakenstein Langeberg Stellenbosch Witzenberg 2016 27.1 27.0 26.3 24.7 26.5 2017 26.8 27.2 27.4 25.1 26.3 2018 26.6 27.0 26.5 24.9 26.6 In 2018, the learner-teacher ratio in Stellenbosch was 24.9, the lowest in the District. The lowest ratio is observed in the Drakenstein area at 24.9, whilst the Western Cape average is 28.8 learners per teacher in 2018. 6 2019 Socio-economic Profile: Stellenbosch Municipality LEARNER RETENTION The learner retention rate refers to the number of students that start Grade 12 as a percentage of the number of students that enrolled in Grade 10 two year prior. The inverse of the learner- retention rate is commonly referred to as the drop-out rate. Learner-retention rates are influenced by multiple social, economic and psychological factors. Breede Valley Drakenstein Langeberg Stellenbosch Witzenberg 2016 67.3 74.0 53.2 77.0 64.5 2017 69.9 71.2 59.5 74.4 63.4 2018 64.7 72.6 56.3 72.5 62.5 The learner retention rate for Stellenbosch has been regressing since 2016, from 77.0 per cent to 72.5 per cent. The retention rate for the Western Cape was 66.8 per cent in 2018. EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES The increased availability of adequate education facilities such as schools, Further Education and Training (FET) colleges and schools equipped with libraries/media centres could positively affect academic outcomes. Breede Valley Drakenstein Langeberg Stellenbosch Witzenberg 2016 56 68 55 39 53 2017 58 68 55 39 54 2018 58 67 54 39 53 The number of schools across the CWD remain mostly unchanged in recent years, the exception being the closure of one school in the Witzenberg and Drakenstein municipal areas between 2017 and 2018. The closure of these schools could have a negative impact on education outcomes given the gradual increase in learner enrolment. 7 2019 Socio-economic Profile: Stellenbosch Municipality NO-FEE SCHOOLS Breede Valley Drakenstein Langeberg Stellenbosch Witzenberg 2016 80.4 67.7 87.3 64.1 84.9 2017 79.3 67.7 87.3 64.1 83.3 2018 79.3 67.2 87.0 64.1 83.0 The proportion of no-fee schools in the Stellenbosch municipal area remained the same at 64.1 from 2016 to 2018.