APRIL-2021 BULLETIN H I GHL I GHT OF THE FORE I G N P O L I CY OF REPUBL I C OF AZERBA I JAN Table of contents I. The West should support a new post-war configuration in the South Caucasus 2 II. The Iskander-M debacle looms large over Russia-Azerbaijan relations 3 III. Azerbaijan continues the construction of strategic Nakhchivan railway despite Armenian provocations 5 IV. Suez Canal blockage highlights the importance of the Middle Corridor for the global shipping 8 V. Economic implications of the Second Karabakh War for Armenia 10 VI. Building Pax Caucasia: opportunities and challenges 12 2 I. The West should support a new which played a critical and positive role in the post-war configuration in the region in the post-conflict period, adding that South Caucasus the US President`s statement was met with concern by Azerbaijan’s leadership and the On April 28, US Secretary of State Antony public. Blinken and President Ilham Aliyev had a phone conversation. According to the With the Second Karabakh War, the balance of presidential press service, the US Secretary of power in the region has sharply shifted in favor State spoke about the importance of further of Azerbaijan. As an artificial Soviet creation of strengthening of bilateral relations, 1923, the term “Nagorno-Karabakh” has also cooperation in the energy and regional lost its relevance after the Second Karabakh security spheres, the successful War. President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly implementation of the Southern Gas Corridor underscored the fact that “there is presently project, and hailed Azerbaijan's participation no administrative unit named Nagorno- in the peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan. He Karabakh. Azerbaijan has resolved this issue, also said that the waiver of Section 907 of the achieved a historic victory and started Freedom Support Act was extended for restoration work in the destroyed areas”. Azerbaijan for 2021. Mentioning the Karabakh with its flat and mountainous parts is cooperation in the field of regional security, an integral part of Azerbaijan. The U.S. and President Ilham Aliyev stressed the other western powers can help in solidifying significance of Azerbaijan's participation in the peace in the region after the Second Karabakh peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan since the War. However, this largely depends on the initial stage. During the conversation, the sides willingness of the western powers to take a exchanged views on the situation after the more unwavering position towards both Armenia-Azerbaijan war. President Ilham revanchist and separatist aspirations, making Aliyev affirmed Azerbaijan's position on this sure that there is no room for ambiguity, while issue, noting that restoration works are pushing Armenian to fulfill its obligations underway in the country`s territories under the November 10th ceasefire destroyed by Armenians. President Ilham agreement. The lack of consistency in the West Aliyev also noted the significance of opening toward this issue is not only detrimental to the communications in the region and stressed West’s capacity to present a coherent policy Azerbaijan's position on ensuring long-term towards the region, but also undermines the peace. President Ilham Aliyev and the US fragile post-war security situation in the South Secretary of State also discussed the future Caucasus. The revanchists see the activities of the OSCE Minsk Group. During the inconsistency in the West’s position as a phone conversation, the sides stressed the validation of their destructive aspirations, development of democratic processes, the which emboldens them to take drastic steps in importance of ensuring human rights, order to undermine the fragile peace in the preservation and providing of political region. The West should avoid creating the pluralism in Azerbaijan. At the same time, perception that it may be willing to prop up referring to the US President`s recent revanchists and separatists. Instead, efforts statement on the so-called Armenian should be made to explain to revanchists and genocide, the President of Azerbaijan said wannabe separatists why their unilateral Turkey was Azerbaijan`s close friend and ally, destructive actions and attempts at revisions Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected] 3 cannot and will not be accepted. The West how the Iskander-M missiles which Armenia should learn to act responsibly and be more could not import were fired against the aware of the unintended consequences of its Azerbaijanis. This issue was discussed by actions. Consistency is a virtue. A clear and President Ilham Aliyev and President Vladimir unwavering stance on the territorial integrity Putin during a telephone conversation on of Azerbaijan would protect the West from April, 1, 2021, and Azerbaijan’s Defense accusations of hypocrisy and double Ministry sent a request with video and photo standards, while preventing would-be materials confirming the use of Iskander-M to revanchists from setting up unrealistic the Russian side. Azerbaijan has not received expectations and destroying the nascent adequate explanation from Russia. According peace in the region. to Russian President’s Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov – “Iskander missiles were not used in Nagorno-Karabakh in the fall of 2020”. II. The Iskander-M debacle looms Russia’s dismissal of the news about the large over Russia-Azerbaijan deployment of Iskander-M by Armenia in the relations course of the Karabakh war raises eyebrows in On April 2, the Mine Action Agency of the Baku and, for President Ilham Aliyev, this begs Republic of Azerbaijan (ANAMA) reported the the question of whether Russia controls finding of the remnants of the Iskander military warehouses in Armenia. “Pashinyan is missiles, also known as SS-26 Stone in NATO the Prime Minister of Armenia. He says we reporting name, in Shusha, a town in the [Armenia] used this missile. A Russian Defense Karabakh region liberated by the armed forces Ministry official said they did not use it. What of Azerbaijan during the war of last autumn. It does it mean? Does this mean that the Russian should be especially highlighted that the Defense Ministry controls the Armenian detected remains of missiles under the 9M723 Defense Ministry?” President Ilham Aliyev index code belong to Iskander-M type. asked at an international conference in Baku. Iskander-M with a maximum range of 500 km It could be speculated that Russia has sold is exclusive for Russian military use, while the Iskander-M missiles to Armenia instead of Iskander-E (9M720) with maximum range of Iskander-E, and Armenian armed forces used 280 km aimed for export. Armenia was the first those missiles against Azerbaijan. In this case, buyer of this complex. The Iskander-E missiles official Moscow violates the Wassenaar were obtained and shown by Armenia at the Arrangement on Export Controls for military parade in September 2016. This Conventional Arms and Dual-Use Goods and finding, however, due to the facts that Technologies. In addition, Russian officials Iskander-M with a maximum range of 500 km always claim that Iskander-M is a serious is considered solely for the Russian army, offensive weapon, and naturally, the complex prohibited for exports under the international will not be exported to other states. Second agreements and only the export version of assumption might be that Armenia through these missiles called Iskander-E is listed in diaspora bought illegally Iskander-M missile Armenia’s arsenal, caused a massive outcry in systems, smuggled it through Russian customs Azerbaijan. Commenting on the findings on and used them against Azerbaijan. In such April 12, President Ilham Aliyev addressed the situation, serious investigations must be Russian leadership asking for an explanation launched in the Russian army to find out Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected] 4 responsible persons. Illegal acquisition of such regretted that only ten percent of the missiles a strategic weapon is a serious threat not only exploded. His derogatory remarks about to regional security but also to the whole Russia’s well-known military product outraged world. Therefore, the official Kremlin should the Armenian army leaders and Russia’s start its investigation into the remains of political and expert community. Facing the Iskander-M missiles in Karabakh as soon as threat of a military coup and Russia’s possible. However, experts are sceptic with objections, Pashinyan’s office later recanted regard to a possibility to smuggle such weapon his statement saying Prime Minister had been from Russia. And the third assumption as some misinformed, adding that “there is no doubt experts claim Russia could use Iskander-M that Russian weapons are one of the best in missiles against Azerbaijan in order to stop the world”. successful military operations of the The precarious balance Azerbaijan has Azerbaijani army. It is worth remembering maintained with its northern neighbor is that military operations were stopped after challenged by Russia’s continuous military the Russian intervention of November 10, support to Armenia and Russia-supported 2020. Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed modernization of the Armenian army as well. the Trilateral Agreement, and the official Many Armenian military experts have Kremlin became a key guarantor for the highlighted the importance of acquiring ceasefire and peace. According to the Iskander-E missile systems for Armenian agreement, 1,960 armed troops, 90 armored military forces, which had tried to change the vehicles, and 380 motor vehicles and special balance in favor of Armenia. However, official equipment units have been deployed to the Baku acquired the Belarusian-made Polonez Karabakh region. By this, Russia got military multiple-launch rocket system as well as presence in all three South Caucasian Israeli-made LORA operational-tactical missile countries.