Gateshead & Newcastle upon Tyne Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2017 Report of Findings August 2017 Opinion Research Services | The Strand • Swansea • SA1 1AF | 01792 535300 | www.ors.org.uk | [email protected] Opinion Research Services | Gateshead & Newcastle upon Tyne Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2017 August 2017 Opinion Research Services | The Strand, Swansea SA1 1AF Jonathan Lee | Nigel Moore | Karen Lee | Trevor Baker | Scott Lawrence enquiries: 01792 535300 · [email protected] · www.ors.org.uk © Copyright August 2017 2 Opinion Research Services | Gateshead & Newcastle upon Tyne Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2017 August 2017 Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................ 7 Summary of Key Findings and Conclusions 7 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 7 Calculating Objectively Assessed Needs ..................................................................................................... 8 Household Projections ................................................................................................................................ 9 Affordable Housing Need .......................................................................................................................... 11 Need for Older Person Housing ................................................................................................................. 12 Market Signals ........................................................................................................................................... 14 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................ 15 Nationally Described Space Standards ...................................................................................................... 17 1. Introducing the Study .................................................................................. 19 Background to the project and wider policy context 19 Government Policy .................................................................................................................................... 19 Duty to Co-operate .................................................................................................................................... 21 Gateshead and Newcastle upon Tyne Joint Core Strategy 2010-2030 ............................................... 21 Housing White Paper .......................................................................................................................... 22 2. Defining the Housing Market Area .............................................................. 23 An evidence base to identify functional housing markets 23 Functional Housing Market Areas ............................................................................................................. 23 Planning Practice Guidance ................................................................................................................. 23 Geography of Housing Market Areas (NHPAU/CURDS) ...................................................................... 24 ONS Travel to Work Areas ................................................................................................................... 25 House Prices ........................................................................................................................................ 26 Valuation Office Agency Broad Rental Market Areas ......................................................................... 27 Administrative Boundaries and Housing Market Areas ............................................................................ 28 Key Statistics for Gateshead and Newcastle upon Tyne HMA .................................................................. 31 Migration within the UK to and from Gateshead and Newcastle upon Tyne ..................................... 31 Travel to Work Patterns ...................................................................................................................... 33 Containment within the Combined Area ............................................................................................ 34 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................ 34 3. Demographic Projections ............................................................................ 38 The starting point for Objectively Assessed Need 38 Process for Establishing Objectively Assessed Need ................................................................................. 38 Gateshead and Newcastle upon Tyne Joint Core Strategy 2010-30 ................................................... 39 Official Population and Household Projections .................................................................................. 39 Official Population Projections ............................................................................................................ 40 3 Opinion Research Services | Gateshead & Newcastle upon Tyne Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2017 August 2017 Population and Household Projections based on Local Circumstances ............................................. 42 Reviewing the Official Population Estimates - Gateshead ........................................................................ 44 Components of Population Change .................................................................................................... 45 Estimating Population Change with Other Data ................................................................................. 48 Reviewing the Official Population Estimates – Newcastle upon Tyne ...................................................... 49 Components of Population Change .................................................................................................... 50 Estimating Population Change with Other Data ................................................................................. 53 Student Housing and the OAN .................................................................................................................. 54 Summary of Population Projection Adjustments ...................................................................................... 56 Establishing Population Projections .................................................................................................... 56 Economic Activity Projections ................................................................................................................... 59 Labour Market Participation Projections ............................................................................................ 61 Older People ........................................................................................................................................ 61 Female Participation ........................................................................................................................... 63 Young People ....................................................................................................................................... 64 Projecting Future Economic Activity for Gateshead ........................................................................... 65 Projecting Future Economic Activity for Newcastle upon Tyne .......................................................... 66 Household Population and Institutional Population ........................................................................... 67 Household Representative Rates ........................................................................................................ 69 Household Projections ........................................................................................................................ 71 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................ 72 4. Affordable Housing Need ............................................................................ 73 Identifying households who cannot afford market housing 73 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 73 Planning Practice Guidance for Affordable Housing Needs ...................................................................... 74 Assessing Affordable Housing Needs ........................................................................................................ 75 Modelling Affordable Needs ..................................................................................................................... 76 Backlog of Affordable Housing Needs for Gateshead and Newcastle upon Tyne .................................... 78 Past Trends and Current Estimates of the Need for Affordable Housing ................................................. 79 Local Authority Data: Homeless Households and Temporary Accommodation ................................. 79 Census Data: Concealed Households and Overcrowding ................................................................... 80 English Housing Survey Data ..............................................................................................................