Final Report Oklahoma City Retail Plan Prepared for: City of Oklahoma City Prepared by: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. March 26, 2014 EPS #21863 “The work that provided the basis for this publication was supported by funding under an award with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The substance and findings of the work are dedicated to the public. The author and publisher are solely responsible for the accuracy of the statements and interpretations contained in this publication. Such interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government." Table of Contents 1. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS .......................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................. 1 Detailed Summary .................................................................................................... 4 2. RETAIL CONDITIONS ............................................................................................ 13 National Retail Conditions ........................................................................................ 13 Regional Retail Conditions ........................................................................................ 16 Survey Results ....................................................................................................... 24 City Retail Conditions .............................................................................................. 27 Subarea Retail Conditions ........................................................................................ 32 3. RETAIL CENTERS ................................................................................................ 39 Definitions ............................................................................................................. 39 Center Performance ................................................................................................ 39 4. RETAIL NODES AND CORRIDORS .............................................................................. 50 Regional Nodes ....................................................................................................... 51 Highway Corridors .................................................................................................. 52 Arterial Corridors .................................................................................................... 53 Community Nodes ................................................................................................... 54 Nodes and Corridors Performance ............................................................................. 55 Commercial Revitalization Districts (CRDs) ................................................................. 58 5. RETAIL POLICY FRAMEWORK ................................................................................... 59 Nodes and Corridors Evaluation ................................................................................ 59 Policy Framework .................................................................................................... 60 6. RETAIL NODES AND CORRIDORS RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................... 62 Regional Nodes ....................................................................................................... 62 Highway Corridors .................................................................................................. 68 Arterial Corridors .................................................................................................... 73 Community Nodes ................................................................................................... 78 Commercial Revitalization Districts (CRDs) ................................................................. 83 7. RETAIL OPPORTUNITIES AND IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................. 88 Retail Tenant Opportunities ...................................................................................... 88 Retail Development Opportunities ............................................................................. 95 Retail Incentive Policies and Tools ............................................................................. 97 8. RETAIL GOALS AND POLICIES ................................................................................ 100 Key Retail Goals ................................................................................................... 100 Nodes and Corridors Policies .................................................................................. 101 9. FUTURE RETAIL DEMAND ...................................................................................... 105 Future Housing Growth .......................................................................................... 105 Regional Retail Demand ......................................................................................... 107 Subarea Retail Demand ......................................................................................... 112 List of Tables Table 1 E-commerce and Total Retail Sales, 2001-2010 ................................................. 14 Table 2 Regional Retail Center Inventory ...................................................................... 18 Table 3 Retail Survey - Where Retail Purchases are Made? ............................................. 24 Table 4 Retail Survey - Where are Most Major Retail Purchases Made? ............................. 25 Table 5 Retail Survey - Where are Grocery Purchases are Made? ..................................... 26 Table 6 Oklahoma City TPI, 2010 ................................................................................ 28 Table 7 Oklahoma City Retail Expenditure Potential, 2010 .............................................. 28 Table 8 Oklahoma City Household Expenditure by Location, 2010 .................................... 29 Table 9 Oklahoma City Retail Store Sales by Origin, 2010 .............................................. 30 Table 10 Oklahoma City Central Subarea Net Sales Flow, 2010 ......................................... 34 Table 11 Oklahoma City Northeast Subarea Net Sales Flow, 2010 ..................................... 35 Table 12 Oklahoma City Southeast Subarea Net Sales Flow, 2010 ..................................... 36 Table 13 Oklahoma City Southwest Subarea Net Sales Flow, 2010 .................................... 37 Table 14 Oklahoma City Northwest Subarea Net Sales Flow, 2010 ..................................... 38 Table 15 Regional Shopping Centers Performance ........................................................... 41 Table 16 Power and Community Shopping Centers Performance ....................................... 43 Table 17 Neighborhood Centers Performance .................................................................. 45 Table 18 Strip Centers Performance (Top) ...................................................................... 46 Table 18 (cont.) Strip Centers Performance (Middle) ........................................................ 47 Table 18 (cont.) Strip Centers Performance (Bottom) ....................................................... 48 Table 19 Retail Nodes and Corridors Performance ........................................................... 57 Table 20 Penn Square Policy Recommendations .............................................................. 66 Table 21 Northwest Expressway Policy Matrix ................................................................. 71 Table 22 SW 59th Policy Matrix ...................................................................................... 76 Table 23 44th and Western Policy Matrix ......................................................................... 81 Table 24 Uptown 23rd Policy Matrix ................................................................................ 86 Table 25 Typical Lifestyle Center Tenants ....................................................................... 91 Table 26 National Mass Merchandisers ........................................................................... 92 Table 27 Retail Goals and Polices ................................................................................ 104 Table 28 New Housing Unit Demand by Subarea, 2010 to 2030 ...................................... 105 Table 29 Oklahoma City New Retail Expenditure Potential, 2010 to 2030 ......................... 108 List of Tables (continued) Table 30 Oklahoma City Supportable New Retail Square Feet by Type, 2010 to 2030 ........ 109 Table 31 Oklahoma City New Regional Node Demand, 2010 to 2030 ............................... 111 Table 32 Central Subarea Retail Node Demand, 2010 to 2030 ........................................ 113 Table 33 Northeast Subarea Retail Node Demand, 2010 to 2030 ..................................... 115 Table 34 Northwest Subarea Retail Node Demand, 2010 to 2030 .................................... 117 Table 35 Southeast Subarea Retail Node Demand, 2010 to 2030 .................................... 118 Table 36 Southwest Subarea Retail Node Demand, 2010 to 2030 .................................... 120 List of Figures Figure 1 Oklahoma City Retail Centers by Year Built ........................................................ 19 Figure 2 Oklahoma City Regional Retail Shopping Centers ............................................... 20 Figure 3 Regional Total Taxable Sales ($B), 2005-2011 ..................................................