Thursday, April 12, 2001 ! Volume 7, Number 32 Page 1 of 8 New CDs to change The future campaigns Howey !"#$%&'$()$*)'$+,$-.')/0$1)/"2$+&"34) By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis The 10-year political cicadas have tunneled out of the Political loam (looking, remarkably, like Ed Mahern) in the Cave of Winds, essentially recasting the Hoosier ring of hats. What we are likely to end up with is a Congressional delegation that will feature three extremely safe Republican Report havens and one for the Democrats; three potentially bloody battlegrounds; and two districts - one for each party - that The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink look nominally secure for the current party in control that Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is would be subject to swamping by future national waves. an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the As for the Indiana House, the number of competitive political process in Indiana. seats will number between 12 and 15 at the beginning of the Brian A. Howey, publisher decade, and will probably be halved by its end. The big Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer question for the Indiana Senate is how long it will take for the Republicans to seize a 34-vote quorum. Our bet is that it Jack E. Howey, editor takes place in 2002. The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 The overall trend on the Congressional level is PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-466-0993 potentially better, dual party representation for key Hoosier Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 cities. While northern Republicans moaned about the split- [email protected] ting off of most of Elkhart County from the old 3rd CD in www.howeypolitics.com the new 2nd, the fact is that the Michiana area is poised to Washington office: 202-775-3242; have three Members of Congress looking after its affairs Business Office: 317-254-0535. (including U.S. Rep. Fred Upton in Michigan’s 6th CD). The Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or City of Elkhart, home to only one state legislator, will have fax. Call 317-254-1533. two Members of Congress - potentially one from each party - helping with its affairs. Fort Wayne, Columbus and Bloom- © 2001, The Howey Political Report. All rights ington will essentially have two voices - the latter two with reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- the possibility of a Member from each party. Ind-ianapolis, if tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without you include U.S. Rep. Mike Pence representing its southeast- consent of the publisher. ern metropolitan statistical area flank, will have four. Continued on page 2 “My number one goal was not to put two Ticker: Daniels nixes ‘04 notions p. 2 incumbents in the same district ....” Bob Lang: Jet made in China p. 2 Perhap: Hurley Goodall sounds off p. 4 - State Rep. Ed Mahern, on the new Indiana Columnists: Colwell, Pulliam p. 5 House maps released last Friday. Horse Race: The earliest CD line p. 6 Covering the golden age of Hoosier politics Thursday, April 12, 2001 Page 2 of 8 DANIELS ON SIDELINES: Since the Indianapolis Star speculated on a number of names in the 2004 guberna- tiorial race (See page 5), HPR received this e-mail from OMB Director Mitch Daniels: “Don't know where the Star speculation comes from. This idea is not, as you might imagine, some- thing I've spent any time thinking about. I suppose if I mess up this job badly enough, I could get sent home...but then who wants Hill and either Steve Buyer or Brian a candidate who just got from page 1 fired? Seems to me the Redistrict, Kerns in the new Frankenstein 4th CD, party has an abundance of The new CD maps will complicate and even Mike Pence might be steering potential candidates, includ- campaigning as we enter the brink of the substantially more campaign funds into ing some not on Russ age of Tivo (the ability for TV viewers to direct mail, print, and cable TV as net- Pulliam's list. Think I'll just program out commercials). At the begin- work viewership continues to plunge and keep on at my current ning of the decade, the new 6th (Pence) advertising rates increase. At some point assignment and root for a 2nd (open) and 8th (John Hostettler) will in the next 10 years, one of these Indiana revival from here.” be split among four media markets. The CD campaigns may write the new modern book on reaching voters. CLINTON LIKES BAYH, 4th (open) and 9th (Baron Hill) will have EDWARDS AND KERRY IN five TV markets; the 5th (Dan Burton) 2004: Former President will have three; the 3rd (Mark Souder) A cicada at work Clinton has identified three will have two; and 7th (Julia Carson) will State Rep. Ed Mahern drew the favorites for the 2004 have one. new CD maps in a clockwise movement Democratic presidential HPR posed this question to Prof. that began in Northwest Indiana’s 1st CD. nomination: Sens. Evan James A. Thurber, director of American He sliced an 8,000 person notch out of Bayh, John Edwards and University’s Center for Congressional and eastern Porter County to give the new 2nd John Kerry (Boston Phoenix). But the newspa- Presidential Studies: “As the age of Tivo CD better Democratic numbers. As he per reported he thinks only dawns, where is political TV advertising worked “county-by-county” in the new Kerry could defeat Presi- going to go?” Thurber responded, “That’s 2nd CD, he came up 30,000 short and dent Bush. a good question. I don’t know.” therefore notched in about three-fifths of In 2000, Thurber - speaking at the Elkhart on the east side to give it a corre- LAKE COUNTY CHAIRS Indiana Political Science Association at sponding electrode. The 3rd CD - which SATISFIED WITH MAPS: Wabash College on March 23 - noted that may supplant Burton’s current district as Lake County’s two major $4 billion was spent electing presidential one of the most Republican in the nation - party chairs like the new and Congressional candidates. “Seventy- consumed the rest of Elkhart County, then Indiana Senate maps. "You three percent of that went into television,” east and south. “I included Allen County have to be complimented for not putting any two sen- Thurber said. as far as I could go until I hit that popula- Toward the end of the decade, it tion of one one-hundredth of a percent,” Continued on page 3 seems plausible that politicians like Baron Mahern said. The remnants, including Page 3 of 8 Thursday, April 12, 2001 areas just south of Fort Wayne, went to but represents five counties where he’ll Pence’s 6th CD. Mahern then went south have franking privileges, though his rela- to create the new 9th and 8th CDs, with tionship with a couple of party organiza- the elongated 5th, 6th and finally the tions is tepid at best. U.S. Rep. Steve spindly 4th CD stepchild coming in last. Buyer actually lives in the new Franken- That new creation voted 75 percent for stein 4th, but currently represents only Sen. Richard Lugar and 66 percent for half a county (White). We give Buyer the ators in the same district," President Bush in 2000. early edge in a political bundling process Democratic Chairman due to past media exposure, a bigger war Stephen Stiglich said. Competitive CDs chest and a potential for more due to his "Sometimes politics drives (lumping senators in the The pundits came to love the’90s. new Commerce Committee assignment. It might take six months to get a real handle same district). I believe the If House Speaker John Gregg challenges on who will emerge. whole process is fair." Hostettler next year (our money is that he Republican Chairman Roger Indiana Republican Chairman will or will have his arm desocketed by Chiabai added, "I think you Mike “Switzerland” McDaniel and the national Dems in the process), that district have done a heckuva nice Republican National Committee seeking stands to live up to its plasmic reputation. job. I'm satisfied." to defend a tiny House majority in the Expect the 2nd and 9th CDs to join in the first Bush mid-term, might try and talk blood-letting. The 2nd CD looks to be a .08 BAC BILL IN JEOPARDY Buyer into moving a couple miles east AGAIN: A week after Gov. 51-49 split favoring Republicans and with into the 2nd CD, where he’d have seven Frank O'Bannon stepped in U.S. Rep. Tim Roemer retiring is an open of his old 5th CD counties back and only to save 0.08 legislation, seat. The 9th CD looks to be about a 52 four media markets to deal with, albeit in there has been no move- percent Democratic district, but it will a competitive district where he’s likely to ment on the issue and become more competitive as Republicans Republicans and Democrats find former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thomp- continue to stream in from Cincinnati and have differing opinions on son poised for a comeback. Mahern the agreement (Niki Kelly, Louisville. Baron Hill has a couple of almost did that on his own, originally election cycles to try and instill the kind Fort Wayne Journal putting Buyer in the 2nd before he real- Gazette). The resulting con- of presence that Lee Hamilton conveyed ized where his home township was and fusion is jeopardizing the for three decades.