GeSI Mobile Carbon Impact How mobile communications technology is enabling carbon emissions reduction Table of Contents Acknowledgements 3 Key findings 5 Foreword from GeSI 7 Foreword from the Carbon Trust 8 Executive summary 9 Background 13 About the research 15 Findings from research 19 Connected Agriculture 22 Connected Buildings 26 Connected Cities 31 Connected Energy 35 Connected Health 39 Connected Industry 43 Connected Living 47 Connected Transportation 55 Connected Working 63 Physical-to-Digital 68 Conclusion and discussion 74 Appendix 1: Methodology for assessing carbon abatement 77 Overview of methodology 77 Scope 77 M2M connections data 81 Sources and references 82 Review process 82 Considerations and limitations to methodology 83 Applying the methodology at a company level 87 Appendix 2: Table of carbon abatement factors 88 Appendix 3: Data sources and assumptions 91 Appendix 4: References for data sources and assumptions 116 Appendix 5: Findings from consumer research 123 Appendix 6: Rebound effects 137 Glossary 138 Mobile Carbon Impact 3 Acknowledgements Lead authors: Andie Stephens, Marta Iglesias, Jamie Plotnek The Carbon Trust team: Martin Barrow, Jamie Clark, Andrea Dahlén, Daisy Goaman, Hugh Jones, Ainslie Macleod, Ana Muñoz, Simon Pickstone, Susan Poupard, Dheeya Rizmie, David Sanders, Aleyn Smith-Gillespie, Paul Swift, Veronika Thieme, Joseph Thornton The Carbon Trust would like to thank the many individuals and organisations that have contributed to the development of this report by sharing their expert knowledge and guidance, including: Anders Andrae, Huawei; Dustin Benton, Green Alliance; Pernilla Bergmark, Ericsson; Emily Bosland, Verizon; Craig Donovan, Ericsson; Simon Driver, Future Thinking; Jens Malmodin, Ericsson; Emma Fryer, techUK; Gabrielle Ginér, BT; Solène Hanquier, Bell Canada; Louise Harry, EE; Saul Jamieson, Telefónica UK; Jonathan Koomey, Stanford University; Jan Kristensen, Telenor; Chris Lloyd, Verizon; John Ponter, EE; Pascal Salina, Swisscom; Mark Shackleton, BT; Markus Terho; Chiara Venturini, GeSI; Dominic Vergine, ARM; Nicki Woodhead, Vodafone This report was funded by: Special thanks goes to Machina Research for providing access to M2M data and supporting analysis. Mobile Carbon Impact 4 About GeSI The Global e-Sustainability Initiative (GeSI) is a strategic partnership of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) companies and organizations committed to creating and promoting technologies and practices to foster economic, environmental and social sustainability. Formed in 2001, GeSI’s vision is a sustainable world through responsible, ICT-enabled transformation. GeSI fosters global and open cooperation, informs the public of its members’ activities to improve their sustainability performance, and promotes innovative technologies for sustainable development. GeSI’s membership includes over 30 of the world’s leading ICT companies; the organization also collaborates with a range of international stakeholders committed to ICT sustainability objectives. These partnerships include the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). Such collaborations help shape GeSI’s global vision on evolution of the ICT sector, and how it can best meet the challenges of sustainable development. For more information see www.gesi.org. About the Carbon Trust The Carbon Trust’s mission is to accelerate the move to a sustainable, low carbon economy. We are an independent, expert partner of leading organisations around the world, helping them contribute to and benefit from a more sustainable future. • We advise businesses, governments and the public sector on their opportunities in a sustainable, low carbon world. • We measure and certify the environmental footprint of organisations, supply chains and products. • We develop and deploy low carbon technologies and solutions, from energy efficiency to renewable power. We have approximately 180 staff with 30 different nationalities, based in the UK, China, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa and the USA. The Carbon Trust’s experts come from a diverse range of professional backgrounds, including engineering, policy, academia, and business. Mobile Carbon Impact 5 Key findings • The carbon emissions abatement enabled by mobile communications technology today is approximately five times greater than the carbon emissions from mobile networks. • Use of mobile communications technology is currently enabling a total reduction of 180 million tonnes of CO2e a year across the USA and Europe. This amount is greater than the annual carbon emissions from the Netherlands and equivalent to 1.5 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions from the USA and Europe. • 70 percent of current abatement comes from the use of machine-to-machine (M2M) technologies in the buildings, transport and energy sectors, where devices are able to communicate automatically with each other without requiring human intervention. • 20 percent of current abatement comes from use of smartphones to enable behavioural changes in lifestyles and working patterns. • Significant future opportunities exist to reduce emissions from cities, healthcare and agriculture through the use of mobile communications technology, although the impact of these areas today is relatively small. • The total carbon emissions abatement from mobile communications technology is expected to grow at least three times larger over the next five years (to about 500 million tonnes of carbon emissions abatement per year across the USA and Europe), given current projections of the increase in deployment of M2M technologies. • International consumer research shows high levels of willingness for smartphone users to adopt behaviours that will result in reduced personal carbon emissions, enabled by functions or apps on their mobile devices. The greatest impact today is through connecting with family and friends using voice or video calls, replacing physical journeys. Mobile Carbon Impact 6 mobile devices to enable behavioural changes in lifestyle and working patterns. million tonnes CO2 e per year Mobile Carbon Impact 7 Foreword from GeSI A decade ago a number of leading organisations from across the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector came together to create the Global e-Sustainability Initiative (GeSI). Our purpose is to work collaboratively to find solutions to the environmental and social challenges faced by the world. We do this by harnessing our industry’s capacity for innovation and technology deployment to promote low carbon growth and shared prosperity in the developing and developed world. In the decade since GeSI was founded, mobile communications has gone through a period of rapid technological advancement and tremendous growth. As governments, businesses and individuals have realised the potential uses for this technology, it has increasingly become an important building block to help create a better society and grow the economy. This report details, for the first time, the actual impact that mobile communications technology is having today on reducing carbon emissions. In the USA and Europe this is approximately five times greater than the total direct emissions associated with mobile, creating a net positive effect. Currently the greenhouse gas emissions from these regions are being reduced by around 1.5 percent thanks to mobile, an amount greater than the entire annual national emissions from the Netherlands. This is impressive, but it is also only a fraction of the full potential for the technology. These findings are timely because 2015 is an important year for global agreements on climate change, with political leaders gathering in Paris to decide how to avoid dangerous climate change at the same time as we continue to grow national economies and improve prosperity. It is commonly believed that any agreement that is reached will require difficult trade-offs. But the fact that the deployment of mobile communications technology is enabling carbon emissions reduction at the same time as improving economic and social progress indicates that there are plenty of win-win situations. We believe that a global ICT transformation, with mobile as a key element, will put the world in a better position to meet the challenges of climate change and sustainable development. If businesses, policymakers and citizens actively support this transformation then over the next decade the impact can be magnified and multiplied many times over. We encourage you to join us in making this transformation a reality. I hope you will find this report interesting and informative. Luis Neves Chairman GeSI Mobile Carbon Impact 8 Foreword from the Carbon Trust Amongst global businesses, ICT and telecommunications companies have been some of the most progressive and collaborative when it comes to sustainability. This goes beyond being merely responsible. These businesses recognise the fact that their core products and services have a major role to play in enabling a sustainable, low carbon future. There is a real business case for accelerating the transition. Innovation has been key to the success of the sector, because successful innovation brings tangible rewards. This is especially true when it comes to low carbon innovation, where economic benefits are accompanied by reduced environmental impacts. And thanks to continued investment into developing and advancing