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Guidelines and Metrics for Assessing Space System Cost Estimates Bernard Fox, Kevin Brancato, Brien Alkire Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Fox, Bernard, 1951- Guidelines and metrics for assessing space system cost estimates / Bernard Fox, Kevin Brancato, Brien Alkire. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4023-7 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Astronautics—Costs. 2. Astronautics—United States—Costs. I. Brancato, Kevin. II. Alkire, Brien. III. Title. TL872.F69 2007 629.4068'1—dc22 2007037870 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2008 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2008 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This report responds to the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency’s (AFCAA’s) need for a single reference document for reviewing cost estimates for space acquisition programs. The AFCAA reviews estimates developed by program offices and field activities for completeness, consis- tency, and reasonableness in support of Secretary of the Air Force acquisition and budget deci- sions. Since a single analyst (or, at best, a small team) must do these reviews relatively quickly, a single reference containing the following types of information was needed: • relevant background information on space system components and their cost drivers • guidance for conducting reviews • historical cost ranges for various components • brief discussion of common issues encountered in estimating space programs • summary descriptions of estimating resources available within the AFCAA. This handbook is intended to be a dynamic reference that will be expanded and updated as additional data become available. It can also serve as a guide for anyone charged with reviewing estimates of space programs. The majority of the research for this handbook was completed as of December 2005. This project was sponsored by the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency under a project enti- tled “Cost, Risk, and Technical Assistance to the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency.” It was conducted within the Resource Management Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. This report should be of interest to government cost analysts who are developing or reviewing esti- mates of space acquisition programs. It should be particularly useful to junior cost analysts with limited space systems experience. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF pro- vides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Train- ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. iii iv Guidelines and Metrics for Assessing Space System Cost Estimates Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site at http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures ........................................................................................................... ix Tables ............................................................................................................ xi Summary .......................................................................................................xiii Acknowledgments .............................................................................................xv Abbreviations ................................................................................................. xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 Estimating the Cost of Space Systems Poses Special Problems ............................................ 1 What This Handbook Contains, Who Should Use It, and How .......................................... 2 CHAPTER TWO Space System Fundamentals .................................................................................. 3 Missions ........................................................................................................... 3 Space System Elements .......................................................................................... 5 Space Vehicle ................................................................................................... 8 Integration, Assembly, and Test .............................................................................21 Ground Segment ............................................................................................. 26 Launch Services ...............................................................................................29 Launch and Orbital Operations Support ................................................................. 30 Other Costs ...................................................................................................32 CHAPTER THREE Reviewing a Cost Estimate...................................................................................33 Setting a Review Schedule .....................................................................................33 Assembling Program Information ........................................................................... 34 Reviewing the Estimate ........................................................................................35 Documenting Findings........................................................................................ 38 v vi Guidelines and Metrics for Assessing Space System Cost Estimates CHAPTER FOUR Space Vehicle Cost Crosschecks.............................................................................41 Crosscheck Development ......................................................................................41 Crosschecks ......................................................................................................47 Spacecraft ........................................................................................................52 Subsystem......................................................................................................52 Attitude Determination and Control Subsystem .........................................................58 Communication Subsystem .................................................................................61