THE ORANGE REVOLUTION: A CASE STUDY OF DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION IN UKRAINE Anastasiya Salnykova BA, National University "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy", 2004 THESIS SUBMITED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ART In the Department of Political Science @ Anastasiya Salnykova 2006 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Spring 2006 All rights reserved. This work may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without permission of the author. APPROVAL I Name: Anastasiya Salnykova Degree: Master of Arts Title of Thesis: The Orange Revolution: A Case Study of Democratic Transition in Ukraine Examining Committee: Chair: Dr. Tsuyoshi Kawasaki Associate Professor of Department of Political Science Dr. Lenard J. Cohen Senior Supervisor Professor of Department of Political Science Dr. Alexander Moens Supervisor Professor of Department of Political Science Dr. Ilya Vinkovetsky External Examiner Assistant Professor of Department of History Date Defended/ Approved: April 6th, 2006 ii 2E: SIMON FRASER . &&W ~~~v~~~~nl~brary DECLARATION OF PARTIAL COPYRIGHT LICENCE The author, whose copyright is declared on the title page of this work, has granted to Simon Fraser University the right to lend this thesis, project or extended essay to users of the Simon Fraser University Library, and to make partial or single copies only for such users or in response to a request from the library of any other university, or other educational institution, on its own behalf or for one of its users. The author has further granted permission to Simon Fraser University to keep or make a digital copy for use in its circulating collection, and, without changing the content, to translate the thesislproject or extended essays, if technically possible, to any medium or format for the purpose of preservation of the digital work. The author has further agreed that permission for multiple copying of this work for scholarly purposes may be granted by either the author or the Dean of Graduate Studies. It is understood that copying or publication of this work for financial gain shall not be allowed without the author's written permission. Permission for public performance, or limited permission for private scholarly use, of any multimedia materials forming part of this work, may have been granted by the author. This information may be found on the separately catalogued multimedia material and in the signed Partial Copyright Licence. The original Partial Copyright Licence attesting to these terms, and signed by this author, may be found in the original bound copy of this work, retained in the Simon Fraser University Archive. Simon Fraser University Library Burnaby, BC, Canada ABSTRACT Thesis explores the factors contributing to the occurrence of the Orange revolution of 2004 in Ukraine, as well factors leading to its success. This study looks at numerous factors such as demographic structure change; civil society growth; awareness of corruption & excessive coercion; formation of alternative leadership & elite fragmentation; transformation of the economic system; technological advance; nationalism; affective response; and finally foreign influence. Overview of transitology literature provides a theoretical framework for the analysis and the discussion of pre-revolutionary Ukraine provides the necessary supporting socio-historical context. The analysis of contributing factors to the revolution is followed by a layout of possible implications based on the case study. The thesis estimates the relative weight of various factors of the Orange revolution. Among the primary factors are alternative leadership, civil society activism, economic structure transformation, and excessive coercion. The supportive factors involve demographic structure change, awareness of corruption, nationalism, international support, and affective response. Keywords: Orange revolution, Ukraine, democratization factors, transition. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I Having completed this thesis Iwant to thank to: Dr. Lenard J, Cohen: for forcing me to master Lexis-Nexis database, introducing me to my home region academically, being perfectionist, and once telling: 'Read nothing else. Write' ... ... as well as for teaching me to say "thank You" ... Dr. Alex Moens: for great encouragement, in particular by letting me talk in front of his class and write a paper for European Studies center website, as well as for material support for this study ... Dr. Olena Hankivsky: for selfless and instant support and advice... Anya Vorobyova: Ireally appreciate it, buddy. Huh!.. Nathan Speedie: for inspiring me to live the life outside of my office, which resulted in my writing this thesis mentally sane ... My Jesus: for the entire world around ... TABLE OF CONTENTS Approval .........................................................................................................................ii ... Abstract .........................................................................................................................111 Dedication .....................................................................................................................iv Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................v Table of Contents ..........................................................................................................vi ... List of Figures & Tables ................................................................................................... List of Abbreviations.................................................................................................... ix Chapter 1 Introduction................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2 Theoretical Background .................................................................................5 2.1 General Transitology ..................................................................................................6 2.2 Literature on Post-communist Democratization .......................... ........ .................. 10 2.3 Democracy Promotion Literature ..................... ..................................................... 18 Chapter 3 Ukraine on the Eve of Revolution ................................................................ 24 Chapter 4 Internal Factors of the Orange Revolution ..................................................32 4.1 Demographic Change ...............................................................................................32 4.2 Civil Society Development ....................... ...........................................................34 4.3 Awareness of Corruption & Excessive Coercion ..........................................................38 4.4 Alternative Leadership & Elite Fragmentation ......................................................... 40 4.5 Economic Transformation ....................................................................................... 44 4.5.1 Political-economic elite evolution ........................................................... 46 4.5.2 Middle class development ............................................................................50 4.6 Technological Innovation ........................................................................................ 58 4.7 Nationalism .............................................................................................................60 4.8 Affective Response: Music, Love and Fun ..................................................................63 Chapter 5 Foreign Factors of the Orange Revolution ...................................................74 5.1 Foreign Actors in Democracy Promotion in Ukraine ....................................................74 5.1.1 Financial support ........................................................................................74 5.1.2 Non-financial support ............... .............................................................. 76 5.1.3 Foreign counter-support to revolution ..........................................................78 5.2 The Controversy: Imposition or Assistance .............................................................. 80 Chapter 6 Lessons From the Ukrainian Case ................................................................84 Chapter 7 Conclusions ..................................................................................................93 Appendices ................................................................................................................... 96 Appendix 1: Objects Under Control or in Ownership of Ukrainian PEGS .................................96 Appendix 2: Images of Orange .......................................................................................100 Reference List .............................................................................................................103 vii I LIST OF FIGURES & TABLES . Figure 1. Income of Ukrainian PEG'S. 1990.2002. O/O per year ...............................................46 Table 1. Stages of 'oligarch economy' .................................................................................47 Table 2 . The share of the middle class in Ukraine. O/O ........................................................ 52 Table 3 . Self-identification by Ukrainians ........................................................................ 52 Table 4 . Pro-Yanukovych musical tour leaflet contents ........................................................64