CLIMATE VARIABILITY, DROUGHT, AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT IN Public Disclosure Authorized TUNISIA’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized DORTE VERNER, DAVID TRÉGUER, JOHN REDWOOD, JENS CHRISTENSEN, Public Disclosure Authorized RACHAEL MCDONNELL, CHRISTINE ELBERT, AND YASUO KONISHI This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The colors, boundaries, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this report do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS Exchange Rate 1 US$ = 2.50 TD = 0.85 EURO 1 TD = 0.40 US$ = 0.352 EURO ABARES Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences APIA Agricultural Investment Promotion Agency BNA Banque Nationale Agricole (National Agricultural Bank) AR5 Assessment Report 5 (IPCC) CDAS Climate Data Assimilation System CHIRPS Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations CHJ Jucar Hydrographic Confederation (Spain) CLIVAR Climate variability and predictability CMIP3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 CONAGUA National Water Commission (Mexico) CORDEX Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment COSEM Seed Cooperative CRDA Regional Offices of Agricultural Development CRU Climatic Research Unit CTMA Caisse Tunisienne d’Assurances Mutuelles Agricoles (Tunisian Fund for Mutual Agricultural Insurance) CTV District Offices of Agricultural Development DGRE General Directorate of Water Resources (MoAWRF) DMI Danish Meteorology Institute DSS Decision support system ECMWF European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ENSO El Niño Southern oscillation E-OBS Data set for precipitation, temperature, and sea level pressure in Europe EU European Union FAO United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization i FAOSTAT Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics FAS Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA FMD Farm Management Deposit (Australia) GDA Groupements de Developpement Agricole (Agricultural development groups— cooperative societies for farmers within the PPI) GDP Gross domestic product GHG Greenhouse gas GISS Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA) GISTEMP Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis GNI Gross national income GMST Global mean surface air temperature GWP Global Water Partnership HadCRUT4 Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set 4 HMNDP High-level Meeting on National Drought Policy ICBA International Center for Biosaline Agriculture IDM Integrated drought management IDMP Integrated drought management program IDMS Integrated drought management strategy IMTA Mexican Institute of Water Technology INGC National Institute for Field Crops, Ministry of Agriculture INM National Meteorology Institute IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change MENA Middle East and North Africa MARH Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources (now MoAWRF) MO Mediterranean oscillation MoAWRF Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources, and Fisheries MOI Mediterranean Oscillation index MT Metric Ton NAO North Atlantic oscillation NAOI North Atlantic Oscillation index NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction NDMC National Drought Mitigation Center (UNL) NDP National drought policy NDS National drought strategy NDVI Normalized difference vegetation index NGO Nongovernmental organization NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration OEP Office of Livestock and Pastures ONAGRI National Agricultural Observatory ONI Oceanic Niño Index OSS Sahara and Sahel Observatory PPI Public irrigation perimeters ii CLIMATE VARIABILITY, DROUGHT, AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT IN TUNISIA’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR PPIC Public Policy Institute of California PRONACOSE National Program against the Drought (Mexico) RCP Representative concentration pathway (of greenhouse gas emissions) RDMS Regional drought management system RFCS Rural Financial Counselling Service (Australia) RPCA Rotated principal component analysis RVCA Rapid value chain assessment SINEAU Unified National Water Resources Information System SMAS Maghreb drought early warning system SODMI Standardized Operative Drought Monitoring Indicators SONEDE Société Nationale d’Exploitation et de Distribution des Eaux SPI Standardized precipitation index SRES IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios UKMO United Kingdom Meteorological Organization UN United Nations UNC University of North Carolina UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification UNDESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs UNL University of Nebraska Lincoln USAID United States Agency for International Development USDA United States Department of Agriculture USDM United Stares Drought Monitor UTAP Tunisian Farmers Union WDR World Development Report WeMO Western Mediterranean oscillation WMO World Meteorological Organization CLIMATE VARIABILITY, DROUGHT, AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT IN TUNISIA’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR iii CONTENTS ABSTRACT 1 OVERVIEW 3 0.1 Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Droughts in Tunisia 3 0.2 The Climate of Tunisia 3 0.3 The Role of Teleconnections 4 0.4 Drought Impacts on the Agricultural Sector 4 0.5 Impacts on the Wheat Subsector 6 0.6 Impacts on the Dairy Subsector 7 0.7 Government Response to Climate Variability and Drought in the Agricultural Sector 8 0.8 Persistent Gaps and Challenges in Tunisia’s Drought Management System 9 0.9 Policy Options 10 0.9.1 National Drought Policy 10 0.9.2 General Approach to Drought Planning and Management 11 0.9.3 Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems 11 0.9.4 Vulnerability and Impact Assessments 13 0.9.5 Drought Mitigation and Response 13 v 1 INTRODUCTION 14 CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND DROUGHT 2 IN MENA AND TUNISIA 22 2.1 Overview 22 2.2 The Climate of Tunisia 23 2.3 Droughts and their Causes in Tunisia 25 2.4 IPCC Projections for Tunisia 30 2.5 Future Drought Prospects in Tunisia 32 2.6 Implications for Agriculture 37 CLIMATE CHANGE AND DROUGHT IMPACTS 3 ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN TUNISIA 39 3.1 The Agricultural Sector: Basic Characteristics 39 3.2 Drought Impacts on the Agriculture and Livestock Sector 43 3.3 Sectoral Impacts of Spatial–Temporal Variability of Droughts in Tunisia 48 3.4 Climate and Drought Impacts on Key Agricultural Value Chains 54 3.4.1 Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production 54 3.4.2 Climate Change Impact on Dairy Production 60 3.4.3 Challenges and Recommendations for Climate Change Adaptation in the Wheat and Dairy Subsectors 67 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT IN TUNISIA 69 4 4.1 Introduction 69 4.2 Lessons from International Experience with Drought Management 70 4.3 Evolution of National Drought Policy, Planning, and Interventions in Tunisia 76 4.4 Persisting Challenges and Gaps 82 vi CLIMATE VARIABILITY, DROUGHT, AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT IN TUNISIA’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR POLICY OPTIONS 87 5 5.1 National Drought Policy 87 5.2 General Approach to Drought Risk Planning and Management 88 5.3 Drought Monitoring and Early Warning 88 5.4 Vulnerability and Impact Assessments 89 5.5 Drought Mitigation and Response 90 ANNEXES Annex 2.1 Climate Change and Variability In MENA 91 Annex 2.2 Annual Mean Temperature and Precipitation Trends For Four Meteorological Stations in Tunisia 98 A2.2.1 Temperature 98 A2.2.2 Precipitation 99 Annex 2.3 Climate-Related Events in Tunisia and Neighboring Countries, 2007–2015 100 Annex 2.4 Projected Global Changes in Temperature, Frost Days, and Tropical Nights 103 REFERENCES 107 CLIMATE VARIABILITY, DROUGHT, AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT IN TUNISIA’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR vii LIST OF BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES BOXES BOX 0.1 Development of Irrigation in Tunisia 7 BOX 0.2 The Three Steps of Tunisia’s Current Drought Management System 9 BOX 0.3 Building on Tunisia’s Current Drought Monitoring and Early Warning System 12 BOX 1.1 Alternative Definitions of Drought 16 BOX 1.2 Proposed Steps in the National Drought Policy/Strategy and Preparedness Process 19 BOX 2.1 The Mediterranean and Western Mediterranean Oscillations (MO and WeMO) 29 BOX 4.1 The Drought Monitor in the United States 71 BOX 4.2 Drought Management at the River Basin Level in Spain and Mexico 73 BOX 4.3 Selected Drought Assistance Measures for the Agricultural Sector in Australia 74 BOX 4.4 Recent Drought Management Measures in California 75 BOX 4.5 Drought Scenarios Considered for Decision Making in Tunisia 79 FIGURES FIGURE 0.1 Tunisia’s Bioclimatic Zones 4 FIGURE 0.2 Tunisia Wheat Production, 2007–16 5 FIGURE 0.3 Wheat Production Area and Quantity by Governorate 6 FIGURE 0.4 Farmer Perceptions of Factors Contributing to Monthly Variability in Milk Quality or Quantity 8 FIGURE 2.1 Bioclimatic Zones of Tunisia 24 FIGURE 2.2 Monthly Mean Precipitation (in millimeters) for Nine Quality Checked Data Series, 1961–90, Representing the Tunisian Climate 26 FIGURE 2.3 Limited Water Availability across Different Time Scales and Causes Are Defined Using Specific Terms 27 FIGURE 2.4 Correlation between Years of Climatological Drought and the Negative Phases of ONI, NAOI, MOI, and WeMOI 30 FIGURE 2.5 Correlation between Years of Climatological