Ta sk 2: Existing Conditions Analysis Report CC eennttrraall aanndd SSoouutthheerrnn MMaarriinn Tr ansit Study T ransit Study De cember 19, 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2: EXISTING TRANSIT SERVICES ............................................................................... 3 2.1 Public Transit Overview ........................................................................................................................ 3 2.2 Transit Service Coverage by Corridor ............................................................................................. 4 2.3 Golden Gate Transit Service Performance by Route ............................................................... 13 2.3.1 GGT Revenue Hours and Ridership by Route .................................................................... 13 2.3.2 GGT Bus Productivity and Farebox Recovery ................................................................... 14 2.4 Proposed Near Term GGT Service Changes ................................................................................ 16 2.5 Marin Transit Service Performance by Route ........................................................................... 16 2.5.1 Marin Transit Revenue Hours and Ridership by Route ................................................ 16 2.5.2 Marin Transit Bus Productivity and Farebox Recovery ............................................... 17 2.6 Proposed Near Term Marin Transit Service Changes ............................................................ 17 2.7 GGT and Marin Transit Performance Standards ...................................................................... 18 2.7.1 GGT Performance Standards .................................................................................................... 18 2.7.2 Marin Transit Performance Standards................................................................................. 19 CHAPTER 3: TRANSIT HUB AND CORRIDOR FACILITIES ................................................... 20 3.1 Transit Hub and Corridor Facilities ............................................................................................... 20 CHAPTER 4: CORRIDOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS ...................................................................... 25 4.1 Current Operating Environment on the Highway 101 Corridor ....................................... 28 4.2 Current Operating Environment at Highway 101 Interchanges ....................................... 33 4.3 Profiles of Current Operating Environment on Arterial Transit Corridors .................. 33 CHAPTER 5: TRAVEL FORECASTS AND TRANSIT DEMAND PROJECTIONS ................... 56 5.1 Background and Assumptions .......................................................................................................... 56 5.2 Trip Patterns ............................................................................................................................................ 57 5.3 Estimated Transit Trip Patterns and Mode Shares ................................................................. 77 CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF TRANSIT RIDER PROFILES ....................................................... 79 6.1 Survey Results ......................................................................................................................................... 79 6.2 Marin County Transit Survey ............................................................................................................ 79 Central and Southern Marin Transit Study A1-i Task 2: Existing Conditions Analysis Report 12/19/08 6.3 Golden Gate Bus Transit Rider Survey .......................................................................................... 81 CHAPTER 7: KEY EXISTING CONDITIONS FINDINGS ........................................................... 83 7.1 Existing Transit Services ..................................................................................................................... 83 7.2 Transit Hub and Corridor Facilities ............................................................................................... 84 7.3 Travel Forecasts and Transit Demand Projections ................................................................. 84 7.4 Corridor Profiles ..................................................................................................................................... 85 APPENDIX A: EXHIBITS AND TABLES ...................................................................................... A­1 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 GGT and Marin Transit Routes Serving the Highway 101 Trunk Corridor ............. 6 Table 2.2 GGT and Marin Transit Routes Serving the San Rafael to San Anselmo ................... 7 Table 2.3 GGT and Marin Transit Routes Serving the San Anselmo to Larkspur………………8 Table 2.4 GGT and Marin Transit Routes Serving the Ross Valley to Corte Madera………….9 Table 2.5 GGT and Marin Transit Routes Serving the Mill Valley to Sausalito Corridor (Miller Avenue, Almonte Boulevard, Highway 101, & Caledonia Street) ................................... 10 Table 2.6 GGT and Marin Transit Routes Serving the Blithedale & Bay Vista Drive………..12 Table 2.7 GGT Bus service: Annual Ridership for Selected Basic and Commute Routes Serving Central and Southern Marin (2004 – 2008)……………………………………………………..14 Table 2.8 GGT Bus Service Productivity and Farebox Recovery .................................................... 14 Table 2.9 Productivity and Farebox Recovery for GGT Basic and Commute Routes Serving Central and Southern Marin (FY 2007)………………………………………………………………………..15 Table 2.10 Annual Revenue Hours and Ridership for Marin Transit Local Routes Serving Central and Southern Marin (FY 2007/08)............................................................................................. 17 Table 2.11 Productivity and Farebox Recovery for Marin Transit Local Routes Serving Central and Southern Marin (FYs 2006/07 and 2007/08) .............................................................. 17 Table 3.1 Park & Ride / Bus Pad Facilities Summary……………………………………………………23 Table 4.1 Park & Ride Facilities and Demand Summary……………………………………………….32 Table 4.2 Typical Corridor Densities Supporting Fixed Route Transit Services……………..34 Table 4.3 Central and Southern Marin Transit Study Bus Stop Conditions…………………….36 Table 4.4 Corte Madera—San Anselmo/Fairfax Corridor Bus Stop Conditions……………..39 Table 4.5 San Rafael—San Anselmo/Fairfax Corridor Bus Stop Conditions…………………..42 Central and Southern Marin Transit Study A1-ii Task 2: Existing Conditions Analysis Report 12/19/08 Table 4.6 Mill Valley‐Sausalito Corridor Bus Stop Conditions……………………………………….45 Table 4.7 Larkspur—San Anselmo/ Fairfax Corridor Bus Stop Conditions……………………49 Table 4.8 Tiburon—E. Blithedale—Mill Valley Corridor Bus Stop Conditions………………..53 Table 4.9 Overview of Corridor Population Density and Change 2008‐2018…………………54 Table 5.1 Work Trip Patterns of Richardson Bay Communities .................................................. A‐3 Table 5.2 Aggregate Trip Patterns of Richardson Bay Communities ......................................... A‐4 Table 5.3 Work Trip Patterns of Lower Ross Valley ......................................................................... A‐5 Table 5.4 Aggregate Trip Patterns of Lower Ross Valley ................................................................ A‐6 Table 5.5 Work Trip Patterns of Upper Ross Valley .......................................................................... A‐7 Table 5.6 Aggregate Trip Patterns of Upper Ross Valley……………………………………………..A‐8 Table 5.7 Work Trip Patterns of San Rafael Basin……………………………………………………….A‐9 Table 5.8 Aggregate Trip Patterns of San Rafael Basin………………………………………………A‐10 Table 5.9 Means of Transportation to Work for Workers 16 Years and Over……………...…78 Table 6.1 Marin Transit District Rider Survey…………………………………………………………..….80 Table 6.2 Golden Gate Transit District Rider Survey……………………………………………….……82 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 GGT and Marin Transit Route Map for Central and Southern Marin Study Area 5 Figure 4.1 Forecast of Total Population Growth…………………………………………………………..26 Figure 4.2 Total Employment Growth…………………………………………………………………….……27 Figure 4.3 Corte Madera‐San Anselmo/Fairfax Transit Corridor: 2018 Population…….....40 Figure 4.4 San Rafael‐San Anselmo/Fairfax Transit Corridor: 2018 Population………….....43 Figure 4.5 Mill Valley‐Sausalito Transit Corridor: 2018 Population………………………………47 Figure 4.6 Larkspur‐San Anselm/Fairfax Transit Corridor: 2018 Population………………..51 Figure 4.7 Tiburon—E. Blithedale—Mill Valley Transit Corridor: 2018 Population….…...55 Figure 4.8 East‐West Transit Corridors Population Density (2018)………………………………54 Figure 5.1 Richardson Bay Residents, 2008…………………………………………………………………58 Figure 5.2 Richardson Bay Residents, 2018…………………………………………………………………59 Figure 5.3 Richardson Bay Workers, 2008…………………………………………………………………..60 Figure 5.4 Richardson Bay Workers, 2018…………………………………………………………………..61 Central and Southern Marin Transit Study A1-iii Task 2: Existing Conditions Analysis Report 12/19/08 Figure 5.5 Lower Ross Valley Residents, 2008……………………………………………………………..63 Figure 5.6 Lower Ross Valley Residents, 2018……………………………………………………………..64 Figure 5.7 Lower Ross Valley Workers, 2008………………………………………………………………65 Figure 5.8 Lower Ross Valley Workers, 2018………………………………………………………………66 Figure 5.9 Upper Ross Valley Residents, 2008……………………………………………………………..68 Figure 5.10 Upper Ross