United States State-Level United States Population Estimates: Department of Agriculture Colonization to 1999 Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station David P. Coulson General Technical Linda Joyce Report RMRS-GTR- 111WWW August 2003 Coulson, David P.; Joyce, Linda. 2003. United States state-level population estimates: Colonization to 1999. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-111WWW. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. De- partment of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 55 p. Abstract: The U.S. landscape has undergone substantial changes since Europeans first arrived. Many land use changes are attributable to human activity. Historical data concern- ing these changes are frequently limited and often difficult to develop. Modeling historical land use changes may be neccessary. We develop annual population series from first Eu- ropean settlement to 1999 for all 50 states and Washington D.C. for use in modeling land use trends. Extensive research went into developing the historical data. Linear interpola- tion was used to complete the series after critically evaluating the appropriateness of linear interpolation versus exponential interpolation. Authors David Coulson, MATCOM, Fort Collins, CO. Linda Joyce, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO. Acknowledgments RPA, Forest Service, United States Department of Agriculture funded this work. You may order additional copies of this publication by sending your mailing information in label form through one of the following media. Please specify the publication title and series number. Fort Collins Service Center Telephone (970) 498-1392 FAX (970) 498-1396 E-mail [email protected] Web site http://www.fs.fed.us/rm Mailing Address Publications Distribution Rocky Mountain Research Station 240 West Prospect Road Fort Collins, CO 80526 Rocky Mountain Research Station Natural Resources Research Center 2150 Centre Avenue, Building A Fort Collins, CO 80526 Contents Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 Background ................................................................................................................... 1 Availability of historical information on United States populations............................... 1 Objective .......................................................................................................................2 Methodology .................................................................................................................... 3 Series development ...................................................................................................... 3 Data sources ................................................................................................................. 3 Historical data series .................................................................................................... 4 Evaluation of interpolation methodologies ................................................................... 6 Test 1 - State and national level census data, 1790 to 1990 .................................. 7 Test 2 - Census annual estimates interpolation between 1900 and 1990 .............. 7 Test 3 - Census annual estimates interpolation between censuses ....................... 8 When might exponential interpolation be better? .................................................... 8 Results ............................................................................................................................ 12 Interpolation ................................................................................................................ 12 The data ...................................................................................................................... 12 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 17 References ..................................................................................................................... 18 Book ............................................................................................................................18 Government documents ............................................................................................. 19 Journal articles ........................................................................................................... 19 Electronic media ......................................................................................................... 20 Census ................................................................................................................... 20 General................................................................................................................... 21 States ..................................................................................................................... 21 Appendices A Development of difference measure between exponential and linear interpolation ............................................................................................... 24 B Proof linear interpolation is always greater than or equal to exponential interpolation under strictly increasing conditions ................................................ 28 C State level series development .............................................................................. 30 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 30 Alabama ................................................................................................................. 31 Alaska..................................................................................................................... 31 Arizona ................................................................................................................... 32 Arkansas ................................................................................................................ 33 California ................................................................................................................ 33 Colorado ................................................................................................................. 34 Connecticut ............................................................................................................ 35 Delaware ................................................................................................................ 35 Florida .................................................................................................................... 35 Georgia................................................................................................................... 36 Hawaii ..................................................................................................................... 36 Idaho ...................................................................................................................... 36 Illinois ..................................................................................................................... 37 Indiana.................................................................................................................... 37 Iowa ........................................................................................................................ 37 Kansas ................................................................................................................... 37 Kentucky ................................................................................................................. 37 Louisiana ................................................................................................................ 38 Maine...................................................................................................................... 38 Maryland ................................................................................................................ 38 Massachusetts ....................................................................................................... 38 Michigan ................................................................................................................. 38 Minnesota ............................................................................................................... 39 Mississippi .............................................................................................................. 39 Missouri .................................................................................................................. 39 Montana ................................................................................................................. 40 Nebraska ................................................................................................................ 40 Nevada ................................................................................................................... 40 New Hampshire...................................................................................................... 41 New Jersey............................................................................................................. 41 New Mexico ............................................................................................................ 41 New York................................................................................................................