V23, N32 Thursday, April 12, 2018 Braun has big media ad buy advantage Jasper businessman has $1 million ad edge over Rokita, Messer; FEC reports coming By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – Mike Braun has outspent Luke Messer and Todd Rokita by $1 million in TV and radio advertising thus far in the race for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination. In a buying time competitive report, Braun has spent or reserved air time to the tune quarter FEC reports. The advertising schedule suggests of $3,030,920, compared to that Messer might have outraised Rokita. While Messer $1,497,755 for Messer and just has reserved time from today through May 7, Braun has $551,389 for Rokita. not purchased time for the weeks of April 24 and May 1. To date, Messer has spent Rokita’s air time purchases end after this week as of this or reserved 9,162 gross rating reporting. He typically makes his buys on Tuesdays. Braun points, compared to 1,149 for is almost certainly awaiting the Messer and Rokita FEC Rokita and 18,653 for Braun. The three campaigns have reports before he makes ad-buy decisions for the final two spent $5,080,064 at this writing. This is a critical juncture in the GOP primary. This analysis comes as the campaigns are preparing the first Continued on page 3 Trump for U.S. Senate By MARK SOUDER FORT WAYNE – I’m not sure if it has leaked out yet, but Todd Rokita has officially changed his name on the Indiana primary ballot to Donald T. R. Trump. Not to be outdone, Mike Braun switched his to Donald Brawny “Speaker Ryan has worked tire- Trump. Luke Messer may soon follow, possibly switching to lessly in Congress for almost two Luke Usually Trump. He will decide before the final week of decades fighting for conserva- the primary. tive values. He has provided the In Indiana, the Republican Senate candidates are clearly leadership needed to successfully wagering that Republicans will transform those conservative rally around the President for at least another 30 days. They ideas into achievements.” will worry about swing voters after the primary. - U.S. Rep. Larry Bucshon At this point, only the reacting to Ryan’s retirement Page 2 video war matters unless it is very ad may designed to deceive voters close. If it depends upon the ground about Messer’s actual record, Messer war in a very close race, it is likely has been the most reserved in his Rokita will win. If the vote is extreme- Trumpism. ly low, Rokita will likely win. Almost As traditional media of all universally, the small sample polls types continue to decline in circula- show Rokita closely battling undecided tion, listenership and viewership, local for the lead, with Braun his closest news reporting continues to shrink Howey Politics Indiana threat. Both factors may still be just at a rapid pace. The candidates, “name identification” results, which is thus, are more or less on their own WWHowey Media, LLC 405 the major reason the race is so fluid. to reach voters across the state, past Massachusetts Ave., Suite The other reason is a great fear that the declining core of party faithful and 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 the “undecided” is actually an “I don’t political activists. Political coverage is www.howeypolitics.com care” polling result. However, if Rokita all Trump, all the time. The best way cannot keep up in advertising dollars to reach Republican voters is to tie with Braun or even Messer, this race yourself to the President. Brian A. Howey, Publisher could shift dramatically, and rapidly. Messer’s basketball ad is in- Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Given that each candidate teresting on multiple levels. He starts Cameron Carter, Editor claims to support the same general out talking about Hoosier basketball, Joel Weyrauch, Editor conservative principles, it has come though the ad presumably shows Mary Lou Howey, Editor down to personalities and who is most Virginia basketball since his son and like, most loyal to, and the most ador- his son’s team live there. Was the ad Mark Curry, Daily Wire, photo ing acolyte of President Trump. The filmed in a Northern Virginia gym? If Jack E. Howey, Editor latest wave of ads reflects the jockey- it was filmed in Indiana, did the team Emeritus ing for the “I’m more Trumpian than of Virginia players all come to visit you” pole position. Indiana? Or were they not actually the 1.) Rokita’s ad calling Messer real players? Furthermore, did his ad Subscriptions a NeverTrumper: The fact is that all team not remember the many failed HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 three candidates HPI Weekly, $350 have expressed HPI Mobile, $5.95 monthly some doubts about Ray Volpe, Account Manager Trump’s behavior at different times. 317.602.3620 But to call Messer a email: [email protected] “NeverTrumper” is just absurd. Messer has voted with the Contact HPI Trump position in [email protected] Congress 92.8% of Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 the time, while Rok- Washington: 202.256.5822 ita has followed suit Business Office: 317.602.3620 on 90.0% of votes. This metric obviously has a built-in flaw, © 2018, Howey Politics because it assumes Indiana. All rights reserved. that what the President supports is ac- basketball ads over the last 30 years, Photocopying, Internet forward- tually what he favors (e.g. the budget including a 2016 Evan Bayh ad playing ing, faxing or reproducing in agreement), but to say Messer is a basketball with his two sons in Wash- NeverTrumper is demonstrably false. ington, much to the delight of Hoosier any form, whole or part, is a 2.) Messer’s basketball ad Republicans? violation of federal law without claiming to be on Trump’s team: After Trump did steamroll his pri- permission from the publisher. stating in classic Messer terms that mary opponents in the critical Indiana if Trump got North Korea to give up primary by storming the state with its nuclear program he deserved the Bobby Knight, Gene Keady, and Digger Nobel peace prize, this is Messer’s Phelps (I don’t think his endorsement second attempt to portray himself as from Mike Tyson added much.) While the leading Trumpite. While Rokita’s most boys today are playing many Page 3 sports, and fan attendance is whom he wants to remake the sporadic for basketball events, Republican Party. Are you with him Bobby Knight remains legend- on that or not? This is especially ary. But is his appeal tied to tricky ground since Trump himself basketball, or a memory of contributed to Hillary and has, good times lost? Knight re- at various times, called himself a minds people of a time when Democrat. So, even the argument Indiana and America “kicked that being a crossover Democrat butt,” as the old expression voter is different than seeking a goes. If Rokita unveils a spot nomination doesn’t work for a featuring Bobby Knight, he Trump enthusiast because that is will likely win the nomination. precisely what Trump did. The Messer basketball spot is On the other hand, not as strong. Rokita’s “horrors of the results of Braun pursued the Trump mantle aggressively liberalism” ad is classically Trumpian. It checks off most from the beginning, first by framing himself as a business- of the Trump basics with the scary film opening. It isn’t man and similar to the voters who moved to Trump. They identified as a Rokita ad until much of its time is wasted. were often blue-collar Democrats from Southern Indiana Then he’s on a sofa with his family and suddenly emerges who switched over to the Trump-led Republican Party. firing a gun, presumably to drive away liberal threats to Braun’s brilliant “cardboard twins” ad defined his oppo- his family. There is a cut-in somewhere in there, where nents as the typical Washingtonian establishment hated by a somewhat red-faced Rokita delivers a conservative the loudest Trump enthusiasts. Then, this past week, he message, and it concludes with him putting on a “Make inexplicably aired a rather milquetoast, forgettable new ad. America Great Again” hat. Though unfocused, not unlike a The most recent Rokita ads deserve the “Most Trump speech, once you realize it is a Rokita ad, you real- Trumpian” award. Rokita also earned the Trump raspberry ize that this man likes President Trump. A lot. He’s almost award for another. a mini-me (though he hasn’t colored his hair). First, the raspberry. Even granting that this is a Voting has now started. Unless someone has Republican primary and not a general election, why would a Mourdock moment, ads will bury the debates. The war you assault the integrity of voters who voted in past Dem- is in the ads. No candidate is likely to hold any chips back. ocrat primaries before switching for Trump? He’s attacking They are all in or they are out, potentially forever. v Braun specifically, but he’s actually attacking all of them. This type of ad has not generally worked in other states Souder is a former Republican member of Congress for that very reason. Trump touts them as his base, with from Indiana. approval with 81% disapproving. The Economist/YouGov INSen TV, from page 1 Poll had the national right/wrong track at a torpid 35/56%. weeks. These are rabidly bad numbers for any incumbent working In addition to the FEC filings, the other thing to in “the swamp.” watch for is what former congressman and HPI analyst In broadcast TV, Braun has spent $332,125 in the Mark Souder calls the “major bomb” ads.