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Arun Local Development Framework Transport Study of 2009 West Sussex County Transport Model Arun District Local Development Framework: Core Strategy Revised Options Final Report Report for Arun District Council April 2009 Document Control Distribution Project Title: Arun Local Development Framework Issue Date Distribution Comments Transport Study 1 13/02/09 Arun DC, WSCC Draft MVA Project Number: C3784800 2 18/02/09 Arun DC, WSCC Revised Draft Document Type: Final Report 3 24/02/09 Arun DC, WSCC Revised Draft Directory & File Name: J:\C37848 Arun District LDF Further Scenarios\Reports\Report V13.Doc 4 06/03/09 Arun DC, WSCC Final Report 5 20/03/09 Arun DC, WSCC Revised Final Report 6 30/04/09 Arun DC, WSCC Revised Final Report Document Approval Primary Author: Ian Wilkinson Other Author(s): Leon Shrewsbury Ann Fenwick Kayleigh Uthayakumar Reviewer(s): Ian Burden Formatted by: LS Contents 4 Tabulated Results 4.1 1 Introduction 1.1 4.1 General 4.1 1.1 Background 1.1 4.2 Additional traffic 4.1 1.2 2026 Demand Forecast 1.1 4.3 Road Capacity 4.1 1.3 Testing the LDF Scenarios for 2026 1.2 4.4 Option Specific Infrastructure 4.2 4.5 Public Transport and Modal Shift from Car 4.2 2 West Sussex County Transport Model 2.1 2.1 Suitability for Purpose 2.1 5 Graphical Results 5.1 2.2 Model History 2.1 5.1 Flow Diagrams 5.1 5.2 Congestion (Figures 5.11 to 5.19) 5.1 3 Methodology 3.1 3.1 Overview 3.1 6 Conclusions 6.1 3.2 TEMPRO Production and Attraction Trip Ends 3.1 6.1 Highway Conclusions 6.1 3.3 Car Ownership growth 3.1 3.4 Specification of Options 3.4 3.5 Locations of Developments and Infrastructure 3.9 7 Appendix 1 7.1 7.1 County Model Assumptions and Limitations 7.1 1 Contents Tables Table 3.1 TEMPRO Car Ownership and Household totals for Arun 3.2 Table 3.2 2006 Trip Ends from TEMPRO 5.1 3.3 Table 3.3 2026 Trip Ends from TEMPRO 5.1 3.3 Table 3.4 2006-2026 Trip End Growth from TEMPRO 5.1 3.3 Table 3.5 2026 Development Option Specification 3.6 Table 3.6 2026 Development Productions for the Transport Model (Based on Assumed Trip Rates by Mode) 3.7 Table 3.7 2026 Development Attractions for the Transport Model (Based on Assumed Trip Rates by Mode) 3.7 Table 4.1 Public Transport Total Boardings from the Transport Model 4.3 Table 4.2 Public Transport Development Site Boardings from the Transport Model 4.4 Table 4.3 Summary of Impacts on the study area road network 4.5 Table 4.4 Roads experiencing capacity problems due to development 4.6 Table 4.5 Summary of Flow on Option Specific Roads 4.7 Table 6.1 Summary results and preference (in terms of traffic impact) ranking 6.6 2 1 Introduction 1.1 Background 1.2 2026 Demand Forecast 1.1.1 MVA Consultancy was appointed by Arun District Council to 1.2.1 The first stage of this study was to create the 2026 highway assess their Local Development Framework Scenarios (LDF) and public transport matrices for the 2026 Baseline and each using the West Sussex County Model. Option, taking into account the committed developments and the option specific developments. 1.1.2 The study has two main objectives that were stated in the brief: 1.2.2 For the zones with new developments in Arun, the method was as follows: to establish the absolute and relative impacts of potential strategic development locations on the road and rail calculate new productions and attractions created by the networks in Arun District and beyond; and proposed developments for each zone of the model; to confirm where transport infrastructure improvements add these new productions and attractions to the 2006 are likely to be required, firstly to enable individual AM peak trip ends and incorporate growth in car developments to go ahead without incurring an ownership to calculate the forecast 2026 trip ends; and unacceptable impact on the highway and secondly to ensure that the sites in question are as accessible as distribute the 2026 trip ends to calculate the 2026 AM possible by rail transport. peak trip matrices for the 2026 Baseline and the Options. 1.1.3 This strategic transport study was divided into two main tasks: 1.2.3 For the rest of West Sussex (outside Arun), trip ends growth factors were taken from TEMPRO for the six districts: Adur, prepare the transport model inputs for the options Chichester, Crawley, Horsham, Mid Sussex and Worthing. (Chapter 3); and 1.2.4 The 2006 trip ends were directly extracted from the West test the options and report the outcomes (Chapters 4, 5 Sussex County Model. Arun District Council provided the extra and 6). housing numbers due to the proposed development for the period 2006-2026. The resulting trip ends were compared against the TEMPRO forecasts. 1.1 1 Introduction 1.3 Testing the LDF Scenarios for 2026 1.3.1 Nine options were tested, which comprised of three differing residential development scenarios, each with and without mitigating infrastructure. In addition, for each development scenario a further test was undertaken with an assumption that for new trips the car mode would constitute no more than a 50% mode share. Full details of the options are in Table 3.5. 1.3.2 Each scenario was analysed against the ‘2026 Baseline’ which assumed the following improvements from the 2001 network: Bognor Regis Relief Road; Chichester bypass improvements; Angmering bypass; Titnore lane (West Worthing) improvements; and 700 bus service headway decreased from 30 to 10 minutes. Further mitigating infrastructure is included in some options as specified in Table 3.5. 1.2 2 West Sussex County Transport Model 2.1 Suitability for Purpose 2.2 Model History 2.1.1 The West Sussex County Model was considered to be suitable for this strategic transport assessment. Following work to 2.2.1 The West Sussex County Model was developed as a tool for incorporate highway and public transport updates the model forecasting strategic highway movements on the county’s main provided a fully functional multi-modal transport modelling tool routes. The area of coverage extends into East Sussex, suitable for the work required in this project. Hampshire, Surrey and the M25 in order to more accurately model journeys of all lengths to, from and through the county. 2.1.2 The County Model assesses link capacity and therefore indicates which road sections are likely to experience delays as 2.2.2 The base year is 2001 and there is a 2026 forecast year which a result of traffic demand exceeding capacity with a has been used in LDF scenario tests. It is an AM peak hour consequent reduction in vehicle speeds. It also indicates how multi-modal model having evolved from a highway-only model. traffic diverts away from busy routes, where traffic is slowed The rail network was added during an update in 2002; the bus because of excessive demand, and adds to flows on secondary model was first added in 2003. The update to 2001 was based routes that may be less suitable. However, junction capacity is only on traffic counts using a matrix estimation process; no not modelled and the model does not represent the delays that new origin to destination data was used. would result from congestion at junctions. Additional specialised software will be required for this work. A detailed 2.2.3 The highway and public transport models use TRIPS software; explanation of the County Transport Model assumptions and the highway model is link-based with no junction modelling. limitations is included in Appendix 1. Congestion delay effects are calculated using speed flow curves. 2.1.3 The results of the County Model should be regarded as indicative of the areas where impacts are likely to take place 2.2.4 Development and network updates are ongoing as part of work and where further investigation and analysis will be necessary for some District Councils on the impact of LDF proposals. prior to any planning consents. The Model will indicate the These include highway network and bus route updates. relative scales of impacts from different patterns of Demand matrices have been uplifted from the 2001 base year development and the likely hotspots. This evidence will help to 2006 using planning data. inform decisions on the most suitable locations for strategic development in the Arun LDF. Subject to the model results, individual junction tests may need to be undertaken to support the choice of preferred locations and to help determine the scale and phasing of development in these locations. 2.1 2 West Sussex County Transport Model Figure 2.1 West Sussex County Model 2.2 3 Methodology 3.1 Overview 3.2 TEMPRO Production and Attraction Trip Ends 3.1.1 For the zones with new developments in Arun, the method was 3.2.1 TEMPRO provided trip end productions and attractions by as follows: mode, by time period and by geographical area for 2006 and 2026. TEMPRO production and attraction trip ends were calculate new productions and attractions created by the extracted for each district in West Sussex, for the AM peak proposed developments for each zone of the model; period (07:00 to 10:00) and for three modes: car (driver), add these new productions and attractions to the 2006 rail and bus. AM peak trip ends and incorporate growth in car 3.2.2 Tables 3.2 and 3.3 show the total production and attraction trip ownership to calculate the forecast 2026 trip ends; and ends for each mode (car, rail and bus) for 2006 and 2026.