RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDARWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA Public Disclosure Authorized RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA RWANDA Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized FY2014-2018 COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY FOR RWANDA Public Disclosure Authorized Country Partnership Strategy for Rwanda FY2014-2018 Accelerating Economic Growth June 2014 Abbreviations and Acronyms CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective April 1, 2014) Currency Unit = Rwanda Francs (Rwf) US$1.00 = 677.660 Rwf FISCAL YEAR July 1-June 30 AAA Analytical Advisory Activities MDG Millennium Development Goal AfDB African Development Bank MFI Micro Finance Institutions BNR National Bank of Rwanda MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency CAS Country Assistance Strategy MINAGRI Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources CPI Consumer Price Index MINECOFIN Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment MINICOM Ministry of Commerce and Industry CPS Country Partnership Strategy MININFRA Ministry of Infrastructure DFID United Kingdom Department for International MOU Memorandum of understanding Development MSME Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise DHS Demographic and Health Survey MTEF Medium Term Expenditure Framework DIME Development Impact Evaluation Initiative MW Megawatt DOL Division of Labor NCD Non-Communicable Diseases DPO Development Policy Operation NISR National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda DSA Debt Sustainability Assessment NPL Non-Performing Loan EAC East African Community NURC National Unity and Reconciliation Commission EDPRS Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy ODA Official Development Assistance EICV Integrated Household Living Condition Survey PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability FARG Genocide Survivors Support Fund PFM Public Financial Management FDLR Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda PforR Program for Results FIRST Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative PPP Public Private Partnership FONERWA National Climate and Environment Fund PRGFs Poverty Reduction and Growth Facilities FSC Financial Stability Committee PSCF Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework FSDP Financial Sector Development Plan PSI Policy Support Instrument GAFSP Global Agriculture and Food Security Program RDB Rwanda Development Board GDP Growth Domestic Product RHA Rwanda Housing Authority GEF Global Environment Facility RRA Rwanda Revenue Authority GNI Gross National Income RURA Rwanda Utility Regulatory Authority GPSA Global Partnership for Social Accountability RWF Rwanda Francs ICT Information and Communications Technology SME Small and Medium-size Enterprise IDA International Development Association SNEL Société Nationale d’Electricité IFC International Finance Corporation SPP Standard Power Purchasing IMF International Monetary Fund TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training INT Institutional Integrity UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime kWh Kilowatt hour VUP Vision 2020 Umurenge Program LAFREC Landscape Approach to Forest Restoration WBG World Bank Group and Conservation WDI World Development Indicators LWH Land Husbandry, Water Harvesting and Hillside Irrigation FY2014-2018 • country partnership strategy FOR RWANDA Contents Foreword ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ i Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... ii Executive summary ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... iii I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 II. Rwanda’s progress and prospects ......................................................................................................................................... 4 A. Economic developments and challenges ........................................................................................................... 4 B. Macroeconomic outlook and debt sustainability .......................................................................................... 6 C. Poverty reduction and social development ....................................................................................................... 7 D. Governance and institutions .................................................................................................................................... 11 E. Sustainability ................................................................................................................................................................... 13 III. Government’s vision and aspirations ............................................................................................................................ 15 IV. Development challenges ....................................................................................................................................................... 20 A. From public-led to private-led growth ................................................................................................................ 20 B. Sharing prosperity ......................................................................................................................................................... 21 C. Financing the development effort ........................................................................................................................ 22 D. Ensuring institutions and capacity keep pace with growth ....................................................................... 22 V. Strategic options for the CPS: leveraging WBG assets ...................................................................................... 23 A. Theme 1: Accelerating economic growth that is private-sector driven and job creating .............. 25 B. Theme 2: Improving the productivity and incomes of the poor through rural .................................. 31 development and social protection C. Theme 3: Supporting accountable governance through public financial .......................................... 35 management and decentralization D. Across the three themes .............................................................................................................................................. 36 VI. Implementation for results ...................................................................................................................................................... 39 A. Lessons learned ............................................................................................................................................................... 39 B. WBG portfolio .................................................................................................................................................................. 40 C. Proposed lending and knowledge work .............................................................................................................. 41 VII. Managing risks ................................................................................................................................................................................... 45 VIII. Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 46 Accelerating Economic Growth LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Consumption by the non-poor outpaced that of the poor in early 2000s ....................................... 9 Figure 2: While consumption of the poor grew outpaced that of the non-poor in late 2000s ................ 9 Figure 3: Agriculture accounted for the bulk of national poverty reduction ........................................................ 10 Figure 4: The poor have moved closer to the poverty line between 2001 and 2011 ....................................... 11 Figure 5: Effective government, but low on voice and accountability ..................................................................... 12 Figure 6: Inequality reduction will be key in attaining the EDPRS2 poverty targets ......................................... 17 Figure 7: International goals for poverty reduction also demand shared prosperity ....................................... 18 Figure 8: Borrowers from commercial banks (per 1,000 adults) ..................................................................................... 29 Figure 9: Agricultural production index (2000=100) ............................................................................................................. 32 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Key macroeconomic indicators ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Table 2: WBG’s potential role in addressing core development