Distribution Annual Planning Report 2019 – 2023 Issue number 6.1 Status Approved Approver Tom Langstaff Date of approval 30 April 2019 AusNet Services Distribution Annual Planning Report 2019 – 2023 ISSUE/AMENDMENT STATUS Issue Date Description Author Approved by Number 1 20/12/2013 2014-2018 Issue (First Issue) M Wickramasuriya D Postlethwaite S Lees M Cavanagh 2 19/12/2014 2015-2019 Issue S Lees J Bridge M Cavanagh 3 24/12/2015 2016-2020 Issue M Wickramasuriya J Bridge S Lees M Cavanagh 4 23/12/2016 2017-2021 Issue M Wickramasuriya J Bridge S Sao M Cavanagh 5 22/12/2017 2018-2022 Issue M Wickramasuriya J Bridge T Langstaff 6 27/12/2018 2019-2023 Issue M Wickramasuriya T Langstaff J Pollock 6.1 30/04/2019 Revision to 2019-2023 Issue to include M Wickramasuriya T Langstaff geographic areas subject to a REFCL J Pollock condition, as per Electricity Distribution Code V.9A (amended August 2018). 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Tom Langstaff AusNet Services Level 30, 2 Southbank Boulevard Melbourne Victoria 3006 Ph: (03) 9695 6859 ISSUE 6.1 30/04/2019 2 / 137 UNCONTROLLED WHEN PRINTED AusNet Services Distribution Annual Planning Report 2019 – 2023 Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Summary of Sub-Transmission Limitations ............................................................................................... 6 1.2 Summary of Zone Substation Limitations .................................................................................................. 7 1.3 Summary of Feeder Limitations ................................................................................................................. 9 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 10 2.1 Purpose ..................................................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 AusNet Electricity Services Pty Ltd .......................................................................................................... 10 3 Electricity Distribution Network ............................................................................................... 11 3.1 Network Location ...................................................................................................................................... 11 3.2 High Voltage Sub-Transmission Network ................................................................................................ 12 3.3 Protection ................................................................................................................................................... 13 3.4 Medium Voltage Distribution Network ...................................................................................................... 13 3.5 Low Voltage Distribution Network ............................................................................................................ 16 3.6 Communications Network ........................................................................................................................ 17 3.7 Distribution Asset Summary ..................................................................................................................... 18 3.8 Methodologies used in preparing the Distribution Annual Planning Report .......................................... 19 3.9 Significant changes in aspects of forecasts and information provided .................................................. 28 4 Forecast for the Forward Planning Period .............................................................................. 31 4.1 Forecasting methodology, data sources, and assumptions ................................................................... 31 4.2 Load Forecasts.......................................................................................................................................... 38 4.3 Forecasts of future transmission-distribution connection points, sub-transmission lines and zone substations ................................................................................................................................................ 48 4.4 Forecasts of the DNSP performance against STPIS reliability targets .................................................. 49 4.5 Factors that may have material impact on distribution network ............................................................. 50 5 Network Asset Retirements and De-ratings ............................................................................ 54 6 System Limitations for Sub-Transmission Lines and Zone Substations ............................ 55 6.1 Sub-transmission line limitations .............................................................................................................. 55 6.2 Zone substation limitations ....................................................................................................................... 62 7 Overloaded Primary Distribution Feeders ............................................................................... 71 7.1 The location of the overloaded primary distribution feeder ..................................................................... 71 7.2 Load exceedance of feeder rating (100%) – Summer or Winter periods .............................................. 71 7.3 Potential Solutions .................................................................................................................................... 72 7.4 Demand reduction required to defer overload by 12 months ................................................................. 73 8 Regulatory Investment Tests .................................................................................................... 74 8.1 RIT-D projects recently completed or in progress ................................................................................... 74 8.2 Future RIT – D projects............................................................................................................................. 74 9 Committed and Planned Asset Retirement, Replacement and Refurbishment Projects ... 75 9.1 Bairnsdale Zone Substation rebuild and REFCL installation .................................................................. 75 9.2 Barnawartha Zone Substation REFCL installation .................................................................................. 76 ISSUE 6.1 30/04/2019 3 / 137 UNCONTROLLED WHEN PRINTED AusNet Services Distribution Annual Planning Report 2019 – 2023 9.3 Bayswater Zone Substation rebuild ......................................................................................................... 76 9.4 Belgrave Zone Substation REFCL installation ........................................................................................ 77 9.5 Benalla Zone Substation rebuild and REFCL installation ....................................................................... 77 9.6 Eltham Zone Substation REFCL installation ........................................................................................... 78 9.7 Ferntree Gully Zone Substation REFCL installation ............................................................................... 78 9.8 Kilmore South Zone Substation REFCL installation ............................................................................... 79 9.9 Kinglake Zone Substation REFCL installation......................................................................................... 79 9.10 Leongatha Zone Substation rebuild ......................................................................................................... 79 9.11 Lilydale Zone Substation REFCL installation .......................................................................................... 80 9.12 Maffra Zone Substation rebuild ................................................................................................................ 80 9.13 Moe Zone Substation rebuild and REFCL installation ...........................................................................