Photo: Lyrinda Snyderman PUBLIC MEETING 1 ISLAIS CREEK ADAPTATION STRATEGY ARMY CORPS FLOOD STUDY Thursday March 14, 2019 Bayview Opera House ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 MEETING AGENDA 1 Opening Remarks and Welcome 2 Climate Hazards & Citywide Resilience 3 Army Corps Flood Study 4 Islais Creek Adaptation Strategy 5 Workshop Exercise 6 Next Steps ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 TONIGHT’S OBJECTIVES COMMUNITY MEETING 1 INFORMATION PARTICIPATION DISCUSSION Learn about the Army Engagement exercise to Share outcomes of engagement Corps Flood Study, Islais better understand what exercise and what it means for Creek Adaptation Strategy, is important to Bayview equity, environment, economy, and related resilience community community, City and regional projects and efforts issues, priorities, and opportunities ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 FLOOD HAZARD Increasing flood risks San Francisco faces increasing from sea level rise (SLR) flood risk. Parts of the shoreline currently flood. Up to 3 feet by 2050 Up to 6–10 feet by 2100 ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 EARTHQUAKE HAZARD 72% likelihood San Andreas The likelihood of a Historically of a major & Hayward major earthquake is high quiet period earthquake by Faults are and the consequences are since 1906 significant 2043 highest risk ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 CITYWIDE RESILIENCE EFFORTS ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 PORT RESILIENCE EFFORTS ISLAIS CREEK/ PORT WIDE EMBARCADERO MISSION BAY BAYVIEW Flood Proof USACE/Port USACE/Port USACE/Port Piers Flood Study Flood Study Flood Study Portwide Islais Creek Seawall Program Southern Resilience Waterfront Adaptation Assessment Strategy Adaptive Southern RFI Framework Waterfront Assessment Utilities Projects Project Adaptations ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 PORT RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK Objective: Objective: Objective: Immediately implement highest Identify policies and projects that will Develop visions that can respond to priority disaster response and life result in a Port that is resilient to seismic remaining seismic risk and STRENGTHEN safety projects along the ADAPT and increasing flood risks and that can ENVISION increasing flood risks and have an ELEMENT Embarcadero Seawall ELEMENT respond to changing priorities. Projects ELEMENT ongoing public conversation about will be integrated into city, regional, and the trade-offs of different options. Planning and Implementation private actions, resulting in coordinated Horizon: actions to increase waterfront resilience. Planning and Implementation STRENGTEN 2018 – 2026 ADAPT TO ENVISION Horizon: THE MID- Planning and Implementation THE 2018 – 2100, Vision Element Priorities: Horizon: updated every 10 years SEAWALL Current Seismic & Flood Risk CENTURY 2018 – 2050, Plan updated every five WATERFRONT FOR PUBLIC RISKS years IN 2100 Priorities: SAFETY Geographic Focus: Seismic Risk and Future Flood Risk Embarcadero Seawall Priorities: Seismic Risk and Future Flood Risk Geographic Focus: Entire Port Jurisdiction Geographic Focus: Entire Port Jurisdiction RESILIENCE PROJECTS SCOPE AND SCALE EXAMPLE Asset: 3rd Street Bridge System: Muni Metro Hazard Reach: U.S. Army Corps Flood Study Citywide: SLR and HCR PROJECT RESILIENCE PIER 70 • Mixed use development with 3000 homes, nine acres of parks • Accommodates up to six feet of sea level rise • Generates an estimated $88 million to be used for adaptation Projects are not able to address access, utilities and surrounding assets and services ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 PROJECT RESILIENCE HERON’S HEAD LIVING SHORELINE • Stabilize the southern shoreline of the park against ongoing erosion and subsidence • Enhance biodiversity and ecological function of the site • Enable the wetlands and park to adapt to a moderate amount of sea level rise through approximately 2050 ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 PORT RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK RESILIENCE EFFORTS AT ISLAIS CREEK Army Corps Flood Southern Waterfront Islais Creek Study Assessment Adaptation Strategy Focus: Flood Risk, Protecting assets in the Federal Interest and Focus: All hazards, broad Focus: Reliable Transportation Identifying local priorities, resilience (Equity, Systems, Social Equity Potential to qualify for Federal Environment, Economy) Construction $ Implementation: Short, Medium Implementation: Short, Medium and Long-Term Implementation: Short, Medium and Long-Term and Long-Term ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 ARMY CORPS FLOOD STUDY PLANNING & ENGAGEMENT 2018 2019 2020 Winter Spring Summer Fall Winter/Spring Introduction Goals, Priorities, Evaluating the and Community Visions and Alternatives Input Tradeoffs 1 2 3 4 5 Refinement of the * Note: Each USACE/Port Flood Study Hazards and meeting to happen in both the Mission Creek and Islais Creek locations Assessing Alternatives Introduction and Analyze Risk and Evaluate and Compare Scoping Consequence Alternatives Existing Conditions Identify, Discuss and Select Preferred & Hazard Scenarios Analyze Alternatives Alternative NEPA/CEQA and Permit Scoping ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 FLOOD STUDY PUBLIC ENGAGMENT Public engagement and participation is how we get to a plan and a project. Opportunities for participation will include • FLOOD RISK REDUCTION for community meetings held in adjacent community assets, resources, neighborhoods, online engagement, and and critical infrastructure. other activities throughout the study • INVESTMENT in flood risk period. management and approaches Communities, businesses, and interested that also achieve benefits for parties will be asked to help identify top community, environment, and priorities for: economy. ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 FLOOD STUDY AREA Approximately 7½ miles of waterfront between Aquatic Park (to the North) and Heron’s Head Park (to the South)* Aquatic Park • Area based on preliminary assessment of coastal flood risk • Significant cultural, historic and maritime assets • Critical public infrastructure, including local and regional Preliminary estimate of value transit (above ground, of structures and contents in below ground, and ferries) floodplain: $22B and wastewater treatment • Dense residential, commercial, and industrial land use Heron’s Head Park Other areas outside of study area should be a focus of future studies ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 FLOOD STUDY OVERVIEW Approximately three to five year study (2018-2022) of flood risk along the San Francisco Bay shoreline which includes • Army Corps experience and expertise • Funding for the assessment of flood risk and the identification of a preferred alternative that becomes eligible for Federal funding • A requirement to identify risks to Federal interest, which drives the project that can be funded ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 FLOOD STUDY GOALS Understand and develop solutions to lower flood risk Identify community, stakeholder and resource agency priorities/issues Flood management alternatives designed to: • Meaningfully reduce current and future flood risks to 2080 • Consider future conditions to 2130 • Identify critical assets and services in the Federal interest • Identify local priorities ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 UNDERSTANDING THE HAZARDS AT ISLAIS EARTHQUAKE RISK Evaluate existing information to develop an understanding of the seismic risk, including ground shaking and liquefaction in the project area. FLOOD RISK Evaluate extent of coastal flood hazard to estimate damage to exposed The Islais Creek area was once open assets. bay and marshlands that were filled into create lands for industrial functions. ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 UNDERSTANDING ASSETS & SERVICES AT ISLAIS The Port and the Army Corps are collecting information on existing assets with City agencies, partners and community stakeholders. INFRASTRUCTURE URBAN AND CULTURAL PARKS AND ECOSYSTEMS MARITIME DISASTER RESPONSE ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 FLOOD STUDY FUNDING COST OF STUDY DESIGN/CONSTRUCTION Locally preferred plan OF FEDERAL PLAN can be selected, City/Port pays extra cost Port SF Local 50% 35% Army Corps Federal 50% 65% Recommendations for funding the selected alternative will be made in the final Army Corps recommendation to Congress in 2022 or later. ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 FLOOD STUDY OUTCOMES • A refined understanding • Education and outreach of the hazards • Identification of risk • A refined understanding reduction alternatives of the assets and services at risk and the • Selection of a preferred consequences of alternative disruption and damage • Federal expertise and • Engagement with possible funding for that stakeholders to define preferred alternative goals, priorities and issues ISLAIS CREEK BAYVIEW COMMUNITY WATERFRONT RESILIENCE THURSDAY MARCH 14 2019 FLOOD STUDY PUBLIC ENGAGMENT MEETING 1 MEETING 2 MEETING 3 Let’s build this Shape