Real estate market assessment report (Revised) Development of land value capture and private investment options Submitted to: The World Bank August 2019 CRISIL Risk & Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. and CBRE (Vietnam) Co. Ltd. | Research & Consulting Services Abbreviations ADR Average Daily Rate A&P Advertising and Promotional Spend CADIF Can Tho Development Investment Fund CAGR Compounded Annual Growth Rate CBD Central Business District CEPIZA City Export Processing and Industrial Zones Authority CTUDRP Can Tho Urban Development and Resilience Project DWT Deadweight Tonnage FAR Floor Area Ratio F&B Food and Beverages FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product GFA Gross Floor Area GRDP Gross Regional Domestic Product HCMC Ho Chi Minh City IPI Industrial Production Index KVIP Korea-Vietnam Incubator Park LVC Land Value Capture MOU Memorandum of Understanding NLA Net Leased Area NUA New Urban Area OCC Occupancy Rate RevPAR Revenue per Available Room SECO Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs UK United Kingdom USD United States Dollars VAT Value Added Tax VND Vietnamese Dong Y-O-Y Year-on-year 2 Contents 1. Executive summary ......................................................................................................................................9 1.1 Introduction .........................................................................................................................................9 1.2 About Can Tho ....................................................................................................................................9 1.3 Key messages ....................................................................................................................................9 2. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 14 2.1 Background ....................................................................................................................................... 14 2.2 About the report ................................................................................................................................ 15 3. City Profile .................................................................................................................................................. 16 3.1 Location ............................................................................................................................................ 16 3.2 Administrative divisions ..................................................................................................................... 17 3.3 Topography ....................................................................................................................................... 18 3.4 Population ......................................................................................................................................... 19 3.5 Connectivity ...................................................................................................................................... 20 3.6 Spatial development .......................................................................................................................... 22 3.7 City level land use analysis ............................................................................................................... 23 3.8 Zoning regulations – city level ........................................................................................................... 27 3.9 Land use along project corridors........................................................................................................ 29 3.10 Zoning regulations along the project corridors ................................................................................... 37 3.11 Major infrastructure projects .............................................................................................................. 38 4. Demographic and macroeconomic assessment for Can Tho .................................................................. 41 4.1 Total population ................................................................................................................................ 41 4.2 District-wise population ..................................................................................................................... 42 4.3 Urbanisation ...................................................................................................................................... 43 4.4 Natural growth rate ............................................................................................................................ 44 4.5 Fertility rate ....................................................................................................................................... 45 4.6 Migration ........................................................................................................................................... 45 4.7 Labor force........................................................................................................................................ 47 4.8 Gross regional domestic product ....................................................................................................... 49 4.9 Income levels .................................................................................................................................... 58 4.10 Trade ................................................................................................................................................ 61 4.11 Foreign direct investment .................................................................................................................. 62 4.12 Competitiveness ............................................................................................................................... 64 4.13 Summary of observations .................................................................................................................. 64 5. Real estate market assessment ................................................................................................................. 67 3 5.1 Can Tho real estate products overview .............................................................................................. 67 5.2 Residential market ............................................................................................................................ 68 5.3 Four and five star hotel market .......................................................................................................... 74 5.4 Office market .................................................................................................................................... 75 5.5 Real estate finance ........................................................................................................................... 76 5.6 Summary of observations .................................................................................................................. 76 6. Annexures ................................................................................................................................................... 78 6.1 Annexure 1: Land use in Ninh Kieu, Cai Rang and Binh Thuy districts ............................................... 78 6.2 Annexure 2: List of industrial parks in Can Tho .................................................................................. 83 6.3 Annexure 3: Landed property market details...................................................................................... 85 6.4 Annexure 4: Condominium market details ......................................................................................... 87 6.5 Annexure 5: Four and five star hotel market details ........................................................................... 89 6.6 Annexure 6: Office market details ...................................................................................................... 91 6.7 Annexure 7: Retail market in Can Tho ............................................................................................... 93 4 List of tables Table 3-1: District-wise population growth ............................................................................................................. 19 Table 3-2: Can Tho land use, 2010 ....................................................................................................................... 24 Table 3-3: Can Tho City - current land use vs. planned land use ........................................................................... 27 Table 3-4: Land use along the Can Tho embankment, 2010 .................................................................................. 33 Table 3-5: Current vs. planned land use along Can Tho embankment ................................................................... 34 Table 3-6: Land use along the CMT8-PH918 connecting route, 2010 .................................................................... 34 Table 3-7: Current vs. planned land use along CMT8-PH918 route ....................................................................... 35 Table 3-8: Land use along Tran Hoang Na street, 2010 ........................................................................................ 35 Table 3-9: Current vs. planned land use along Tran Hoang Na Street ..................................................................