Countries compared on public performance Countries compared on public performance A study of public sector performance in 28 countries Jedid-Jah Jonker (ed.) The Netherlands Institute for Social Research | scp The Hague, May 2012 The Netherlands Institute for Social Research | scp was established by Royal Decree of March 30, 1973 with the following terms of reference: a to carry out research designed to produce a coherent picture of the state of social and cultural welfare in the Netherlands and likely developments in this area; b to contribute to the appropriate selection of policy objectives and to provide an assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of the various means of achieving those ends; c to seek information on the way in which interdepartmental policy on social and cultural welfare is implemented with a view to assessing its implementation. The work of the Netherlands Institute for Social Research focuses especially on problems coming under the responsibility of more than one Ministry. As Coordinating Minister for social and cultural welfare, the Minister for Health, Welfare and Sport is responsible for the policies pursued by the Netherlands Institute for Social Research. With regard to the main lines of such policies the Minister consults the Ministers of General Affairs; Security and Justice; the Interior and Kingdom Relations; Education, Culture and Science; Finance; Infrastructure and the Environment; Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation; and Social Affairs and Employment. © The Netherlands Institute for Social Research | scp, The Hague 2012 Editing: Julian Ross, Carlisle, uk dtp: Textcetera, The Hague Figures: Bureau Stijlzorg, Utrecht Cover design: Bureau Stijlzorg, Utrecht isbn 978 90 377 0584 3 nur 740 Distribution outside the Netherlands and Belgium: Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick (usa). The Netherlands Institute for Social Research | scp Parnassusplein 5 2511 vx Den Haag The Netherlands Tel. +31 70 340 70 00 Fax +31 70 340 70 44 Website: www.scp.nl E-mail: [email protected] The authors of scp publications can be contacted by e-mail via the scp website. content Content Foreword 9 Summary 11 1 Framework 21 Notes 32 References 32 2 National resilience barometer 35 2.1 Demographics 36 2.2 Economic situation 44 2.3 Social situation 50 2.4 Public sector 61 2.5 Combined performance 67 2.6 Summary 69 Notes 71 References 71 3 Education 73 3.1 Outcome 74 3.2 Outcome and expenditure 86 3.3 Output in education 90 3.4 Relating output to outcome 102 3.5 Analysing differences in outcome 105 3.6 Confidence in education 117 3.7 Conclusion 118 Notes 120 References 123 4 Health 127 4.1 Goals and challenges in health care 127 4.2 Health care systems 129 4.3 Health outcomes 134 4.4 Cost-effectiveness of the health care system 143 4.5 Output of the health care system 162 4.6 Explaining differences in outcome 174 4.7 Confidence in the health care system 180 4.8 Conclusion 182 Notes 183 References 184 5 countries compared on public performance 5 Social safety 189 5.1 Outcome of social safety: crime rates 193 5.2 Determinants of crime 206 5.3 Use of resources 210 5.4 Deterrence 216 5.5 Organisation of the criminal justice system 225 5.6 Feelings of safety and trust in police and judges 228 5.7 Conclusions 234 Notes 237 References 237 6 Housing 241 6.1 Outcomes 246 6.2 Cost-effectiveness 258 6.3 Analyses of differences in outcome in renting 264 6.4 Summary and reflections 276 Notes 281 References 282 7 Performance of five other sectors 286 7.1 Social protection 287 7.2 Economic affairs and infrastructure 291 7.3 Environmental protection 294 7.4 Recreation, culture and social participation 302 7.5 Public administration 307 7.6 Summary 313 7.7 Improvement and progress in research 315 Notes 316 References 318 8 Overall performance of the public sector 321 8.1 Combined performance of education, health, social safety and housing 321 8.2 Overall outcome performance for nine sectors 324 8.3 Well-being 328 8.4 Conclusion 334 Notes 337 References 338 Samenvatting 339 6 content Appendices (can be accessed online at www.scp.nl/english/publications on the page dedicated to this publication) Appendix A Data used Appendix B1 cofog classification Appendix B2 National resilience barometer Appendix B3 Education Appendix B4 Health Appendix B5 Social safety Appendix B6 Housing Appendix B7 Performance of five other sectors Appendix B8 Overall performance of the public sector Publications of the Netherlands Institute for Social Research | scp in English 348 7 foreword Foreword The performance of the public services is a subject of regular debate. Concerns about public services are not confined to the Netherlands, but exist in other countries, too. The public sector is likely to face major challenges in the next few years; for example, population ageing will lead to increased demand for care services, while dejuvenation will exacerbate staff shortages. Public service budgets in many countries will also be squeezed in the coming years by austerity measures driven by the economic circum- stances. It is therefore useful to have an insight into the functioning of the public sector. During the Dutch Presidency of the eu in 2004, the Netherlands Institute for Social Research | scp conducted a major international comparative study of the performance of the public sector in different countries. This was followed in 2007 by an abridged study. The present report is therefore the first integral follow-up to the 2004 study. The approach has been broadened in the present study by looking at more sectors, albeit to a more limited extent. The scope of the study has also been broadened by looking not just at one point in time, but tracking developments over a series of years. This report has been compiled in collaboration with the Dutch Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations. Thanks are due in particular to Dr Paul Pestman. The chapter on housing was provided by Dr Marietta Haffner, Christian Lennartz and Kees Dol from the otb Research Institute for the Built Environment at Delft University of Technology. The supervisory committee, comprising Professor Hans de Groot, Dr Wouter Van Dooren and Professor Flip de Kam and chaired by Jaap Uijlenbroek, played a key role in the re- alisation of this project. We would also like to express our thanks for the constructive comments made by the National Strategic Council (Strategieberaad Rijksbreed) chaired by Dr Arnold Jonk. The comments from various ministries on the texts of the individual sector chapters were also very helpful. This study would not have been possible without international comparative data. Wide use has been made of databases compiled by international organisations, especially the oecd, but also Eurostat, the European Values Study, the Dutch Ministry of Justice Research and Documentation Centre (wodc) / Council of Europe, the United Nations, the us Census Bureau and the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (icpsr). The ability to compare data from different countries is improving steadily, but this report confirms that international statistics often still leave much to be desired. Professor Paul Schnabel 9 summary Summary How well is the public sector performing, and are citizens being well served? Simple though these questions may be, answering them is not easy. It is difficult to measure public sector performance in absolute terms, and this report therefore explores the rela- tive performance in different countries. The report compares the performance of nine public services in 28 developed countries over the period 1995-2009. The central research question focuses on how the performance of the public sector has developed over time and what relationships can be discerned between that performance and the resources deployed, the output and the trust placed by citizens in the public sector. Approach Performance is treated in this report as a combination of effects (what is achieved?) and efficiency (at what price?). Effects are measured by looking at outcomes, as far as pos- sible from the perspective of the citizen, in other words what does the citizen notice of the public sector? The report also looks at how closely the effects achieved match the desired outcomes as defined by policymakers. In education, for example, the report looks at the performance of pupils and at the educational attainment of young adults. With health care the focus is on the health status of the population; in the area of social safety the report looks at the level of crime experienced by citizens; and in the hous- ing sector the focus is on the affordability and quality of housing. The report also looks explicitly at how much trust and confidence citizens have in the different public sectors, and examines whether better performance in a sector is also associated with more public confidence in that sector. The process from input of resources to ultimate effects is an extremely complex one, because many factors play a role. For example, a country’s economic status has a major impact on the standard that can be attained by the public sector: in more prosperous countries, provisions are generally of a higher standard. Specific circumstances can also play a role. In a densely populated country such as the Netherlands, for example, it is more difficult to achieve objectives in the area of the environment than for a more thinly populated country such as Sweden. In addition, countries differ in the way they organise sectors, for example in the choices they make that influence accessibility, affordability and quality. The relationship between expenditure and effects is indirect. Expenditure is used to generate output: numbers of pupils, number of patients treated. In turn output should in good circumstances lead to desired effects: greater knowledge and better skills, in- creased life expectancy.