University of Groningen The dynamics of natural gas supply coordination in a New World Boon von Ochssée, Timothy Alexander IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please check the document version below. Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Publication date: 2010 Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database Citation for published version (APA): Boon von Ochssée, T. A. (2010). The dynamics of natural gas supply coordination in a New World: cooperation or competition between gas-exporting countries from a Russian perspective. Clingendael International Energy Programme . Copyright Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). The publication may also be distributed here under the terms of Article 25fa of the Dutch Copyright Act, indicated by the “Taverne” license. More information can be found on the University of Groningen website: https://www.rug.nl/library/open-access/self-archiving-pure/taverne- amendment. Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): http://www.rug.nl/research/portal. For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum. Download date: 29-09-2021 Chapter 9: Gazprom’s investment strategy in an uncertain, competitive gas market Chapter 9 Gazprom’s investment strategy in an uncertain, competi- tive gas market ∗∗∗ 9.1 Introduction This chapter contains the application of the real-options game model discussed in Chapter 8. By means of exploratory research in the form of separate case studies, Gazprom’s investment strategy will be ascertained in light of market outcomes on a sub-regional level by applying the Chapter 8 toolbox and the model. Written from Gazprom’s perspective, the case studies per- tain to the Turkish and various sub-regional European gas markets. This chapter opens with Case study 1, an assessment of Blue Stream, a historical or ex post case. Subsequently, Case study 2 deals with the South Stream pipeline and Case study 3 with the Nord Stream pipeline. The case studies each have a similar structure: they begin with a brief background description of the market in question, followed by a conceptual discussion about market uncertainty. Market uncertainty involves demand-side factors such as potential market demand itself as well as pricing. Then, the various potential gas suppliers to the sub-regional market in question are reviewed and assessed. Other investment variables are then considered in accordance with the conceptual toolbox, such as geopolitical factors, regulatory barriers, etc. This is followed by an overview of the possible or planned institutionalisation of the project in question (and in the case of the Blue Stream its institutionalisation as it really occurred). In all three case studies the real-options game model is then applied, which is a stylised ap- proach to market demand uncertainty and potential gas supply competition in the form of a potential entrant. The model’s outcome, namely the overall value of the various projects in question, is then provided. In Case study 1, where the Blue Stream is discussed, the applica- tion of the model is followed by a discussion of the gas market’s structure as it has evolved since the start of operations of that pipeline in the Turkish gas market. As for the South and Nord Stream pipelines, which are yet to be constructed, potential scenarios (from Gazprom’s perspective) concerning ex-post market structures in the respective sub-regional gas markets are then discussed. Each case study ends with a reflection on the use of the model, the respective outcomes, the model’s assumptions and their limits. ∗ This chapter was co-authored with Tom Smeenk. We thank Christiaan van der Kwaak, student assistant at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Groningen, for his assistance in regards to the modelling work. 249 9.2 CASE STUDY 1: Gazprom versus competition in the Turkish gas market during the 1990s This case study pertains to the Turkish market as it was during the late 1990s. Booming gas demand in Turkey and the construction of the oil BTC pipeline through the Caucasus prompted Russia (Gazprom) to build the Blue Stream pipeline. The pipeline’s construction had a major impact on Turkey’s gas market structure while the pipeline’s commercial value still hangs in the balance, years after its final investment was made (in 2008, approximately half of the total capacity was utilised). Set in the 1990s, this case study is a reconstructive in- vestigation of the strategic value of Blue Stream in view of possible gas flows from newly sov- ereign Central Asian states and Iran to Turkey (and beyond, as will be shown in Case study 2). 9.2.1 Background According to many projections made during the early 1990s, the Turkish gas market was to become a booming growth market. Russian gas already played a role early on during this pe- riod. The Soviet Union had become an important gas supplier to the Turkish market in 1987, after it started its gas exports to large numbers of European countries during the 1960s. In order to accommodate these Soviet supplies, a trunk line was constructed from the Bulgarian border to Ankara in 1986. In 1990, the Turkish government announced that they also desired to purchase LNG from Algeria (and from Nigeria later on), a move that would help to coun- terbalance Turkey’s large purchases from the Soviet Union [Hacisalihoglu 2008]. After the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan became independent and started acting as sovereign net gas-exporting countries with their own goals and strategies. In the early to mid-1990s, their general attitude reflected a desire to break away from Russia. Russia itself entered a brief period of politico-economic chaos. As a result, combined with higher domestic gas prices, gas for Russian demand de- creased during the first part of the 1990s. The key aspect to the behaviour of the Central Asian countries is that they correspondingly sought to export their resources, both oil and gas, through routes other than the ones that led to and through Russia, which dated from the old Soviet days. This was the heritage from the Soviet Union as described in Chapter 5 and 6 in Smeenk [2010]. A westward export strategy seemed a real possibility for the Caspian countries, particularly for Turkmenistan, because Turkey (and Europe) were recognised as the closest hard currency markets. These were ex- pected to have a significant increase in demand for gas in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the same period, Iran was also expected to start its export to Turkey and Europe and to become a considerable supplier. The threat of these projects to Gazprom’s reve- nues in Europe combined with increasing pressure on the Russia’s gas balance, encouraged Gazprom to take pro-active action in developing its value chain. Simultaneously, Turkey was 250 seeking to strengthen its relations with Iran and other Caspian countries [Akdeniz et al. 2002; Hacisalihoglu 2008]. Besides its increasing gas demand, Turkey could and can also be consid- ered as a bridge for gas (and other energy flows) to connect European off-take markets with the Caspian region and the Middle East, see also Case study 2 [Kilic and Kaya 2007]. For a sche- matic overview of the various export routes from the Caspian Sea region to Turkey, see Figure 9.1. Figure 9.1 Schematic overview of competing gas supply and transport routes to the Turkish gas market in 1999 Major Ukraine Moldova Trans-Balkan sales options pipeline Romania Bulgaria CAC Gazprom Russia Caspian Black Sea Sea Azerb. Kazachstan Kazachstan Blue Stream Azer- baijan SCP/TCGP SCP/TCGP LNG Georgia • Algeria Uzbekistan Turkey • Nigeria • Yemen TCGP NIOC Iran • Qatar Iraq* Mediterranean • Egypt Sea China/ Turkmenistan others Egypt Possible markets Planned/proposed transport route Possible delivery points Existing transport route * Iraqi supplies were held up due to UN sanctions aimed at Saddam Hussein’s regime. Note: The overview is schematic (1999) and therefore not accurate. Source: own analysis, company information; figure adapted from StatoilHydro information. 9.2.2 Market demand in Turkey: A booming gas market during the late 1990s Natural gas became important for Turkey during the 1980s, as a new emerging economy, hav- ing been introduced in 1981 as a primary fuel. Turkey’s economic activity has spurred on the need for primary energy, and gas had a substantial share in the primary energy mix in 1999: approximately 15 percent. Power generation played (and still plays) an important role in the demand for gas (in 2000, 60 percent of the total demand for gas, according to Botas). Much of this demand was and is concentrated in the Western (Marmara area) and Southern parts of 251 Turkey, specifically around Ankara, Izmir and Istanbul. 423 For a number of reasons, including environmental, geographic, energy security, economic and political ones, Turkey had chosen natural gas as the preferred fuel for power generation, of which new capacities were to be added [Hacisalihoglu 2008]. Turkey’s gas demand was therefore expected to grow by 5 to 8 percent annually between 2000 and 2020, one of the highest growth rates in the world during that period [privately disclosed company data; Stern 2005].