The Black Owl Report : An Executive Intelligence Brief Briefing: Tuesday 14, January 2020 Lead: Gut Check time The Toughest “Call” for an Executive to Make We get exposed to a tremendous amount of research as we gather Additional Items we are watching. information to turn into intelligence. One of the big trends we are watching for our clients is in the area of customer experience. • Wuhan SARS Outbreak? The World Health Organization is monitoring an outbreak of I am preparing for a presentation that links 1) macroeconomics to 2) a virus that is behaving much like SARS. industry-specific observations then to 3) company-specific research for a The virus starts with a fever and then client. develops into a respiratory illness or pneumonia. In short, we are trying to paint a picture to help them understand: The World Health Organization has been 1. Will the economy provide them with a tide that “lifts all ships”? given a genetic sequence to use in trying 2. Will their industry experience something unique that makes it float higher than the tide or below the surface? to develop just a test for the strain. At this 3. Is their unique boat taking on water or starting to plane so that it stage, we don’t know exactly how many can rise above the tide and “make way”? cases there are, how fast it’s spreading, what the mortality rate is, etc. In the process of assembling reams of data and information, we came across an interesting piece sent to me by a friend that discusses customer Approximately 41 people have been experience during a downturn. diagnosed with the virus, one has died, seven were discharged and six remain in The graphic below from Forbes and Watermark Consulting shows the critical condition. results of a study that looked at the Great Recession and the S&P 500 and the correlation between growth by companies that had outstanding Details are a little sketchy, but it is customer experiences and those that were offering sub-par experiences. believed that perhaps as many as 7 new The results are astounding. cases have already popped up in Hong Kong. SARs had a significant impact on the global economy back at a time when the world was not as interconnected as it is today. To the degree that it would have a big impact on global trade, it’s important to continue to monitor. • Blackstone Shifting to Green? It was a small story of sorts, but Blackstone will take steps to increase its percentage of holdings in many funds to companies with sustainable footprints. We wrote a bit article about the impact of a “zero- emissions” future on businesses. This is another example of how that is playing out in real terms in financial markets. Your efforts toward sustainability may not save The most difficult decision for an executive to make as the rumors of the planet, but it could boost shareholder recession and an economic slowdown are on the horizon is the one to wealth. continue to invest in customer experience endeavors. According to the data by Watermark, it pays off. Confidential – Armada Executive Intelligence Brief – Confidential - 1 - The Black Owl Report : An Executive Intelligence Brief I’ll be honest, for an executive responsible for finances, it’s a gut-check moment - granted, your businesses may be different depending on competitive pressures and industry environments. You can’t invest in events and marketing if you are a technology company and your products are lagging the industry. Understanding both stated and derived importance (as we have written about in the past) is critical when looking at attributes of your business and what customers value. If you haven’t done a formal consumer value analysis in a while, you need to consider it. The Business Roundtable recently made a statement that they would start to prioritize customer satisfaction and experience over shareholder wealth in the future. It was almost considered to be sacrilege in the sense that we learn in business school that increasing shareholder and stakeholder wealth is the number one most important factor in finance – right? Some statements of fiduciary duty are written as such! I’m including this in the front of today’s brief because we believe that businesses may start to fight an internal and external fight over the next two years between investing in items that directly provide growth, and those activities that create a slower, more gradual ascension into a superior competitive position through increasing customer satisfaction and improving customer experience. US Domestic Economic Items Economic Microbriefs: • 2020/2021 Years of the House. Working on some forecasting information for a few clients, I dove into the outlook for the economy and I see one consistent prediction across the board: housing will be booming. For 2019, residential construction expected to be up @1.1% Y/Y in 2019. Some solid forecasts I see for 2020 show growth of 8% with 2021 following up with a 7.3% growth rate. In any given year, housing can represent as much as 19% of total GDP if you include all-in direct and indirect benefits associated with the housing sector. If you touch the housing sector, services, direct construction materials, fixtures, decorations, etc., your outlook should be optimistic at this time. • Consumer Price Index up 2.3% in December . The CPI headlines are all over the place. The number we need to know is that core inflation was 2.2% in December, down just slightly from a 2.3% rate hit in October and November. The Fed’s target rate is about 2%, but they have constantly said that they want to see inflation at 2.5% or higher for a period of time before they start to get concerned. We also know that we need to watch the Trimmed Mean PCE which is a better average of inflationary pressure. November was the last rate that we have on the TMPCE, and it was at the Fed’s target rate of 2%. In short, inflation is still tame. • Goldman Jumps into the New Era of Banking . Goldman is renaming Clarity Money and relaunching it with new services and products as Marcus. This is the bank’s answer to a trend in banking that is happening fast: mobile banking. It’s not just a way of capturing market share, it’s critical for survival. Recent studies are showing over and over again that Millennials are making banking decisions unlike any generation has before them. It’s based on the mobile banking offering and the access to money, artificial intelligence tools, visibility, ability to get assistance, etc. And, Millennials are wearing off on Confidential – Armada Executive Intelligence Brief – Confidential - 2 - The Black Owl Report : An Executive Intelligence Brief their older-generation predecessors. Gen Xers and Baby Boomers are now starting to look for banking relationships that have more accessibility and ease of engagement. BankRate has one of the most recent rankings of the Top 8 mobile banking apps (August 2019). Not in any particular order, here were the top 8 based on popularity of apps, etc.: • Chase Bank • Bank of America • USAA • Alliant Credit Union • BB&T • Huntington Bank • Chime (Digital banking only) Earlier in the year (April of 2019), MarketWatch issued the following list of it’s top 8 (just for comparison): • Capital One • Chase Mobile • Wells Fargo • Bank of America • Discover • Ally • PNC • Simple Large banks have carved out the mobile banking sector as their battleground, knowing that the winner could be the one that helps control Millennial money. The ability for these banks to spend and invest in tools that are unique and differentiating makes it tougher on smaller banks. Smaller banks can certainly compete, but they are being forced to get creative, pair resources together, and use more strategic partnerships to stay abreast of the big firms. As mentioned, all of the banking sector knows this. Goldman Sachs has hired Michael Dell’s brother, Adam to lead their development of “Marcus” – to create a competitive mobile app to go up against those firms mentioned earlier. However, the biggest competition for all could come from the digital-only sector. Several sources are saying to watch companies like Monzo, an online-only banking app that is taking the UK by storm. Monzo has recently partnered with a US bank to offer its services in the US – and social media and pop culture could lead to a landslide of new customers that flock to the brand. Competition for banks is coming from a variety of directions. Confusion in the sector could be one of the biggest challenges – and biggest opportunities for competing. When it comes to importance, most people would say that managing our money is probably second only to the health and welfare of our family. Some people want to still physically walk into a branch and have a relationship with a bank – even if they then use the mobile apps that bank has to offer afterwards. They like the physical security of knowing that they can walk over and touch their bank. When the world of financial options gets confusing, people will revert back to going to a source they trust (or one that their parent’s trusted). That’s the opportunity for smaller, community banks over the next couple of years. They have the opportunity to offer certainty, customer service and Confidential – Armada Executive Intelligence Brief – Confidential - 3 - The Black Owl Report : An Executive Intelligence Brief troubleshooting, and training to young banking customers and upsell/cross-sell longer term customers on new mobile banking options.