RUSSIA Fertility, Contraception, Induced Abortion, Infant and Maternal Mortality N. B. Barkalov and Leonid E. Darsky The paper is written with the collaboration of: Boris P. Denisov, Ph.D., Population Studies Center of Moscow University V. Josi Echinique, Ph.D., Population Studies Center of Moscow University L. Vv Gavrilova, Ph.D., M.D. the Deputy Director of the Department of Maternal and Child Care of the Ministry of Health Care of Russia Tatiana L. Khar’kova, Ph.D., Research Institute of the Goscomstat of Russia. OPTIONS II Project The Futures Group International 1050 17th Street NW Washington DC 20036 202-775-9680 March 1994 TABLE OF CONTENTSУ ABSTRACT.......................................................................................................................................... i POPULATION...................................................................................................................................... 3 FERTILITY....................................................................................................................................... 13 INFANT AND MATERNAL MORTALITY.................... ................................................................ 21 CONTRACEPTION........................................................................................................................... 29 INDUCED ABORTION.................................................................................................................... 39 NOTES............................................................................................................................................... 45 REFERENCES.................................................................................................................................. 51 ABSTRACT У Russia is a low fertility country (total fertility rate equals 1.552 for 1992) with a strong pronatalist policy: maternity leave is 18 weeks under full payment, while 3 years with job security and partial payment. The age pattern of fertility is very young, mainly concentrated in the age interval 20-24, and is primarily within marital union. The singulate mean age at marriage equals 20.7 (census of 1989). Childbearing is essentially limited to 1-2 children: only 21 percent have 3 or more children (period cohort of 1989), but the proportion of childless is fewer than 5 percent. The Russian population is essentially homogeneous in terms of fertility. There are no direct data for measuring contraceptive prevalence in Russia. However, the two major independent sources: the supply-side data of the Ministry of Health Care and selected small-sample surveys suggest that the prevalence of modem methods (not counting condom) is at least 22-25 percent, while possibly may be significantly higher. The IUD is a primary method, being promoted by the Ministry in the 1980s as the principal substitution for abortion. It is used mainly as a stopping method after the first or a second child, or to postpone the second one. The prevalence of oral contraception is only 2-4 percent, but is expected to grow rapidly in the near future. Sterilization is essentially permitted only by the most recent Order issued December 28, 1993. The surveys suggest that the overall (any method) contraceptive prevalence is within the 70-80 percent range, though it may be much lower. Induced abortion, not contraception, is the primary method of fertility control in Russia. The reported total abortion rate is about 3.4 (1991), while the abortion ratio (proportion of known pregnancies terminated by abortion) is 0.680. Abortion on request is permitted within the first 12 weeks of pregnancy (Decree of 1955). Abortions by vacuum aspiration in the early stage of pregnancy are included into the officially reported data (at least 23 percent of the total number, 1991), as are some true spontaneous abortions and a significant portion of illegal abortions. This makes the reported level substantially higher (at least 10 percent) than the one truly compatible with other countries. Counting all illegal abortions would add no more than 15 percent to the overall reported level. Abortions are primarily to married women. The age pattern is young (the highest abortion rate is at age 23-27). Abortions are mainly performed to stop childbearing after the first child, or to postpone the second one (1.9 on average, 1988-89), or for stopping after the second child. A relatively small number of abortions is to nulliparous women. The infant mortality rate is moderately high (18.05 in 1992), with the post neonatal (27-364 days) component steadily decreasing (6.59 in 1990). The maternal mortality rate is extremely high (50.8 per 100,000 live births, 1992). The death rate due to induced abortion is rapidly decreasing, because of replacing surgical (curettage) abortions with menstrual regulations, and apparently because of declining share of illegal (self-induced and criminal) abortions, which absorb virtually all the incidents of death. The current maternal mortality rate due to abortion is 12.3 or about 24 percent of the maternal deaths. The population size is stabilizing around 150 million. Its projected dynamics primarily depends on external migration exchange, with the natural increase being negative. The former is determined by the presence of 25.3 million ethnic Russians (36.3 million native Russian speakers) outside the present Russian borders (the 1989 census). The latter is partially because of extremely high mortality of the adult male population (life expectancy equals 62.0 in 1992, with 73.8 for the female population). POPULATION у The recent official estimate of the Goscomstat {’} for the Russia’s population size is 148,294,709 as of the beginning of 1993. (Goscomstat, 1993a). A more precise census enumeration (January, 1989) is shown in Table 1. The estimates for 1992 and 1993 are provisional. More precise numbers will soon be available for 1994, as the data from the Large-Sample demographic survey (reference date — February 1994) will be tabulated {2}. With the population size of its European part accounting for 116.3 million (1992), Russia is the largest country in Europe exceeding the population of the second largest (Germany) by about 50 percent. Population, million Increase, million 4.0 05 ao 25 го 15 ------ Number of births 0,5 Population size ■ ■ ■ Number of 0 deaths ■— Net migration 1950 I960 1970 I960 1990 2000 2010 calendar year Figure 1. Population size and its components of change. Source: Goscomstat (1988, p. 8, 112; 1990a, p. 91; 1992b; 1993a) and Volkovet л/.(1993). For 1993 estimated from the monthly registration for 9 months. Projection is based on the 1992 data. The high projection variant is indicated by dotted line. While the population size grew steadily after World War II, natural increase sharply dropped during the years of theperestroika campaign and the subsequent crises (Figure 1). Starting from 1992 Russia has experienced negative natural increase with the crude birth and death rates equal respectively to 10.7 and 12.2 (1992). Judging from the monthly registered number of births and deaths (available by September 1993), the crude rates for 1993 may be within the range 9-10 and 14-15 respectively {3}. The net migration flow into Russia has been positive since the mid-1970s (Figure 1). It will probably constitute the main source of the future growth or decrease of the Russian population, because of the existence of a very significant number of ethnic Russians (25.3 million by the census of 1989) and native Russian speakers (36.3 million) residing outside the present Russian borders (see side-box Demographic Environment, Table 2, Figure 2). According to the most recent projection completed by the Goscomstat, the natural increase will remain negative for at least 10 years, while the population size may stabilize around 150 million or decrease slightly depending on the migration exchange with the former USSR republics, reflected in the projection scenarios (Table 1, Figure 1) {4}. Table 1. Population Size by Census Enumerations, Latest Available Estimates and Projection. in thousands, at the beginning of the calendar year ' Population size 1979 1989 1992* 1993 1997 2002 Urban 94,942.296 107,959.002 109,672 108,458 n/a n/a Rural 42,467.625 39,062.867 39,032 39,063 n/a n/a Total (high) 137,409.921 147,021,869 148,704 148,295 150,310 150,430 (low) 148,590 147,070 Population aged 0-1 2,106,752 2,326,547 n/a 1,581 n/a n/a Population (high) 10,522.767 12,032.460 10,624 9,759 8,522 8,211 aged 0-4 (low) 8,387 7,975 Women (high) 36.909.294 36,158.586 35,980 36,371 38,929' 39,689 aged 15-49 (low) 38,427 38,683 *) The population age composition is according to a provisional estimate based on the cohort-component extrapolation, while the total population size and the urban-rural composition are from a different estimate based on vital registration data. Source: Goscomstat (1990a, p. 30; 1993a; 1993d, p. 100-101). The projection - Goscomstat (1992b) is based on provisional estimates for the 1992 population age composition. The urban population size increased faster than the rural population for all calendar years after 1950, chiefly due to migration to larger cities, including that caused by the government recruiting programs for qualified low-skilled workers (so called limit). The share of urban population reached 73.9 percent in 1991, up from 44.6 percent in 1951. It declined however in 1991 and 1992 (as the absolute number of the urban population did) because of the decreasing migration flow from rural