Global Wind Energy Expansion: Gauging Vulnerabilities to Climate Change Submitted by: Eric Joseph Teeters Project Advisor: Rhey Solomon The Johns Hopkins University May 2013 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Environmental Science and Policy Concentration in Environmental Management Abstract Global demand for low emission renewable energy production continues to intensify. Wind turbine power plants, which harness the kinetic energy from wind to generate electricity, continue to proliferate due to the technology’s high scalability, ease of deployment, capacity for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, ability to diversify energy portfolios, and for meeting world energy demands. Herein a review is conducted of the investments being made in wind energy technologies by the United States of America, the European Union, the People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of India. As technology advances Geographic Information Systems are being utilized to quantify the wind resources in a given region and to locate the best possible sites for wind energy development. Many renewable energy technologies, including wind energy, are dependent on many factors of which climatic conditions are essential. As the climate changes, the wind resource is vulnerable to positively or negatively change on a regional basis and as such the total electricity output from wind turbines could be directly impacted. As the investment in renewable energies has become a determining factor in the adaptation and mitigation of climate change, in addition to addressing rising global energy demands, it is necessary for future wind siting assessments to consider how a changing climate may jeopardize the continued exploitation of wind energy and the security of investments. II | Page Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... II Table of Contents ...........................................................................................................................III List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. V List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ VI List of Global Climate Models ..................................................................................................... VI List of Equations ........................................................................................................................... VI List of Abbreviation ..................................................................................................................... VII Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................... IX 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................1 2.0 Background ................................................................................................................................2 3.0 The Evolution of Harnessing Wind ...........................................................................................2 3.1 History ....................................................................................................................................2 3.2 Wind Energy Production ........................................................................................................3 4.0 Regional Wind Energy Expansion .............................................................................................4 4.1 Global Wind Energy ...............................................................................................................4 4.2 United States of America .......................................................................................................7 4.3 European Union ......................................................................................................................8 4.4 People’s Republic of China ..................................................................................................10 4.5 Republic of India ..................................................................................................................11 5.0 Utilizing Wind Energy Data Resources ...................................................................................12 5.1 Oak Ridge National Laboratory ...........................................................................................13 5.2 National Renewable Energy Laboratory ..............................................................................13 5.3 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ............................................................14 5.4 American Wind Energy Association ....................................................................................14 5.5 IPCC Data Distribution Center ............................................................................................15 6.0 Wind Energy and GIS-based Case Studies ..............................................................................15 6.1 Northern California ..............................................................................................................15 6.1.1 Background....................................................................................................................15 6.1.2 Methodology..................................................................................................................15 III | Page 6.1.3 Results ...........................................................................................................................15 6.2 Poland – Kujawska-Pomorshie Voivodeship ......................................................................16 6.2.1 Background....................................................................................................................16 6.2.2 Methodology..................................................................................................................16 6.2.3 Results ...........................................................................................................................17 6.3 India .....................................................................................................................................17 6.2.1 Background....................................................................................................................17 6.2.2 Methodology..................................................................................................................17 6.2.3 Results ...........................................................................................................................18 6.4 Western Turkey ...................................................................................................................19 6.2.1 Background....................................................................................................................19 6.2.2 Methodology..................................................................................................................19 6.2.3 Results ...........................................................................................................................19 6.5 Jiangsu, China .....................................................................................................................20 6.2.1 Background....................................................................................................................20 6.2.2 Methodology..................................................................................................................20 6.2.3 Results ...........................................................................................................................20 7.0 Wind Energy in a Changing Climate .......................................................................................21 7.1 An Uncontrollable Resource ................................................................................................23 7.2 Reporting the Best Climate Science Available ....................................................................24 7.2 Site Availability Changes in High Latitudes ........................................................................24 7.3 Atmospheric Change and the Effect on Wind ......................................................................25 8.0 Wind Climate Change Predictions ...........................................................................................27 8.1 United States ........................................................................................................................27 8.2 European Union ....................................................................................................................28 8.3 China ....................................................................................................................................29 9.0 Climate Change and Wind Energy in the US and China .........................................................30 9.1 Objective ..............................................................................................................................30 9.2 Background ..........................................................................................................................30