LEBANESE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY The Syrian Conflict: Through the Lens of Realpolitik By Alexander Ortiz A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of Master of Arts in International Affairs School of Arts and Sciences January 2014 To loved ones v Acknowledgments To Professors Salamey, Skulte-Ouasis, and Baroudi. Thank You for everything. Your guidance and help over the length of the program has been much appreciated. To Professor Rowayheb, thank you for being on my thesis board. vi The Syrian Conflict: Through the Lens of Realpolitik Alexander Ortiz Abstract This thesis examines power relations in the security vacuum created by the Syrian conflict. The conflicting nature of Syrian domestic politics has created a political stalemate that needs outside support to be resolved. Inaction on the part of the greater international community has allowed for regional powers to become highly entrenched in the conflict. Regional involvement and the demographics of Syrian parties have been used by popular mediums to describe the conflict as sectarian by nature. The central point of this thesis is to show that the veneer of sectarianism by all parties, both Syrian and regional, is primarily a by-product of competitive self-interest. This is done by showing that the relationships made between Syrian groups and their patrons are based on self-interest and the utility provided in these temporary unions. The seminal political theories of Locke and Hobbes concerning the foundations of political power show the Syrian groups to be acting upon political necessity, not sect. The ambitions of regional powers are analyzed through realist theory to explain power relations in an unregulated political environment both in Syria and in the region. As such nations must act upon their own initiative to dictate their security. This thesis rejects sectarianism as an explanation for regional politics in the Syrian conflict. Keywords: Syrian conflict, Arab Spring, Proxy War, Realpolitik, Realist political theory. vii Table of Contents Chapter One ................................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 Significance.................................................................................................................................... 4 Challenges ...................................................................................................................................... 6 Research ......................................................................................................................................... 7 The Structure of the Thesis ............................................................................................................ 8 Chapter Two ............................................................................................................................... 11 The Syrian Conflict‟s Context ..................................................................................................... 11 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 11 Current Literature: The Conflicts Sectarian Roots....................................................................... 12 Instances of Domestic Syrian Sectarianism ................................................................................. 12 The Assad Government and its Supporters .......................................................................... 12 The Syrian Opposition ......................................................................................................... 14 Regional Powers and Sectarianism .............................................................................................. 17 Pro-Assad Regional Parties .................................................................................................. 18 Pro-Opposition Regional Parties .......................................................................................... 19 Varying Regional Approaches Creating a Fragmented Domestic Opposition ............................ 24 Regional Focus Outplays International in Syria .......................................................................... 26 Remaining Issues ......................................................................................................................... 28 Hypothesis ................................................................................................................................... 28 Chapter Three ............................................................................................................................ 30 Methodology/ Research Plan ....................................................................................................... 30 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 30 Research Questions ...................................................................................................................... 31 Research Design........................................................................................................................... 31 Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 32 Further Methodology ........................................................................................................... 34 Data Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 35 What Domestic Causes Created the Current Syrian Conflict? ............................................. 36 How are the Syrian Conflict and Regional Power Connected? ........................................... 38 viii What are the Causes and Effects of the Foreign-Domestic Relationships in the Syrian Conflict? ............................................................................................................................... 40 Chapter Four .............................................................................................................................. 43 The Syrian Conflict and the Fight for Power: .............................................................................. 43 Findings and Analysis .................................................................................................................. 43 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 43 What Domestic Causes Created the Current Syrian Conflict? ..................................................... 43 The Assad Government and its Domestic Supporters .......................................................... 44 The Opposition to the Assad Government ........................................................................... 60 The Lead up to Revolt .......................................................................................................... 63 The Opposition‟s Current Form and Style of Operation ...................................................... 67 The Opposition‟s Execution in Theory and in Action ......................................................... 83 Analysis of the Syrian Opposition ....................................................................................... 89 The Syrian Conflicts Product to Date .................................................................................. 94 Regional Powers: How are the Syrian Conflict and Regional Power Connected? ..................... 95 Regional Pro- Assad Allies .................................................................................................. 96 Regional Pro-Opposition Allies ......................................................................................... 104 What are the Causes and Effects of the Foreign-Domestic Relationships in the Syrian Conflict? An Analysis of the Relationships ............................................................................................... 121 Other Considerations for the Region and Future Study ............................................................. 136 Chapter Five ............................................................................................................................. 144 Conclusion and Generalization .................................................................................................. 144 Limitations and Recommendations ............................................................................................ 151 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 154 ix TABLES USED: Methodology: Data Triangulation p. 39 x Glossary of Abbreviations Used AQ: al Qaeda N.D.: No Date AQAP: al Qaeda on the Arabian P5+1: The 5 permanent member of the Peninsula United Nations Security Council plus Iran AQI: al Qaeda in Iraq PKK: Kurdistan Workers Party CENTCOM: United States Central Command PUK: Patriotic Union of Kurdistan GCC: Gulf Cooperation Council PYD: Democratic Union Party FSA: Free Syrian Army R2P: Responsibility to Protect GDP: Gross Domestic Product SIF: Syrian Islamic