Vol. 12, 2018-12 | March 08, 2018 | http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2018-12 Establishing an expert advisory commission to assist the G20’s energy transformation processes Andreas Löschel and Philipp Großkurth et al. Abstract The ongoing transformation of the world’s energy systems requires an international monitoring to evaluate the transformation processes and to identify transferable leading practice policies. For this purpose, an independent scientific expert commission should be established for the G20. By actively involving political decision-makers in the discussion of the final results a broad basis of support can be ensured. The Climate and Energy Action Plan for Growth agreed at the G20 Summit in Hamburg recognizes explicitly the main proposals of this paper. The paper provides a broader discussion how to assist the G20’s energy transformation processes and describes steps towards implementation. (Published as Global Solutions Paper) JEL Q01 Q48 Q58 Keywords Monitoring; G20; energy transformation; impact evaluation Authors Andreas Löschel (University of Münster, Germany / Expert Commission on the Monitoring Process “Energy of the future”), [email protected] Philipp Großkurth (RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen, Germany) Michel Colombier (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), Paris, France) Patrick Criqui (Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory, CNRS, Université Grenoble-Alpes, France) Du Xiangwan (Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing, China) Christoph Frei (World Energy Council, London, United Kingdom) Carl Friedrich Gethmann (University of Siegen, Germany / acatech) John Gummer, Lord Deben (Committee on Climate Change, London, United Kingdom) Baroness Brown of Cambridge DBE FREng (Julia King) (Committee on Climate Change, London, United Kingdom) Franck Lecocq (Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement, Paris, France) Jyoti Parikh, (Integrated Research and Action for Development IRADe, New Delhi, India) Dirk Uwe Sauer (RWTH Aachen, Germany / acatech) Robert Schlögl (Fritz Haber Institute of the Max Planck Society, Berlin, Germany / acatech) Christoph M. Schmidt (RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen, Germany / acatech) Frithjof Staiß (Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW), Stuttgart, Germany/Expert Commission on the Monitoring Process “Energy of the future”) Cyril Stephanos (acatech – National Academy of Science and Engineering, Berlin, Germany) Kanako Tanaka (LCS, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Tokyo, Japan) Tian Zhiyu (CAE / Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing, China) Eberhard Umbach (acatech – National Academy of Science and Engineering, Berlin, Germany) Matt Wenham (Australian Academy of Technology and Engineering, Melbourne, Australia) Koichi Yamada (LCS, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Tokyo, Japan) Yu Cong (CAE / Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing, China) Citation Andreas Löschel and Philipp Großkurth et al. (2018). Establishing an expert advisory commission to assist the G20’s energy transformation processes. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 12 (2018-12): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2018-12 Received November 17, 2017 Published as Economics Discussion Paper December 11, 2017 Revised February 22, 2018 Accepted March 6, 2018 Published March 8, 2018 © Author(s) 2018. Licensed under the Creative Commons License - Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 12 (2018–12) Global Solutions Papers Challenge The commitments of the Paris Climate Agreement – which has so far been signed by 197 countries (February 2017) – cannot be met unless the energy systems around the world are fundamentally transformed.1 The key challenge is to encourage immediate action and to ensure that leading practice policies are identified and implemented. In the G20 Energy Ministerial Meeting Beijing Communiqué, the G20 energy ministers “share a common understanding that the global energy architecture needs to continue to evolve to reflect better the changing realities of the global energy landscape” (G20 2016). This is an urgent challenge: The UNFCCC’s Updated synthesis report on the aggregate effect of INDCs finds that the INDCs contribute to lowering the expected temperature levels until 2100 and beyond, but that estimated aggregate annual global emission levels resulting from their full implementation do not fall within the scope of least-cost 2 °C scenarios by 2025 and 2030 (UNFCCC 2016). Creating a global energy architecture of the future that is both just and sustainable is a chal- lenge best met by resorting to scientific approaches. This paper proposes a vision of how the existing energy policy expertise can be implemented and institutionalised in a framework that takes both technological progress and aspects of economic development into account and is ad- justed to the future needs of the international community in the global transition of the energy systems. Proposal Establishing a scientific Expert Advisory Commission to report to the G20 Around the world, there are various different strategies of how the transformation of the energy systems might be approached. They would all benefit from a transparent international monitoring and evaluation process, taking account of the differences between countries, national and regional framework conditions and the heterogeneity in methods and metrics. To be sure, this would require a joint effort and commitment in order to establish a baseline level of information related to the transformation of energy systems. It would, however, allow for the identification of best-practice and leading examples in an international context. We recommend that the G20 mandate a group of independent scientists and policy experts to prepare the evidence base for such a process. This will enable the identification of robust policy options, i.e. _________________________ 1 In the preamble of the Paris Agreement, the Conference of the Parties “recognizes that climate change represents an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human societies and the planet and thus requires the widest possible cooperation by all countries, and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, with a view to accelerating the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions” (United Nations/Framework Convention on Climate Change 2015). www.economics-ejournal.org 2 Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 12 (2018–12) Global Solutions Papers options apt to achieve multiple policy objectives, including access to secure, affordable and sustainable energy. We further recommend a complementary process, aiming at a cooperation between the commission and political decision-makers. This would give the results a wider notoriety and support basis. Once the scientific analyses are concluded, the process should consequently provide for a political discussion of the results, including the joint approval of an executive summary. Such a new forum for exchange would allow for iterative improvements. While respecting the core competencies of both spheres, this collaborative effort would constitute the foundation of a high-level partnership ensuring the relevance of the commission’s work for practical policies. The proposed Expert Advisory Commission should be mandated to fulfil the following tasks: 1. Inform – gather and harmonize Build a comprehensive, validated international database (taking into account technical, economic, environmental and social data) which accounts for differences in data availability and accessibility and which can be used both to monitor and evaluate G20 countries’ energy transformation progress as well as to improve methodologies for future policy assessment. 2. Monitor – design indicators and track progress Identify harmonized methodologies and develop indicators to provide policy makers with a neutral benchmark that is tailored to national circumstances in a way that checks national progress against national ambition based on the specific voluntary goals of the individual country. 3. Evaluate – analyse implementation and impact Undertake a stock-take of relevant policy in (but not limited to) G20 countries, analyse the status of the implementation of policy measures and business models and their impact using ex-ante and ex-post impact evaluation methods. 4. Exchange – share experiences and knowledge Assess the individual national success factors of impactful policies in order to determine their transferability to other countries and create a toolkit for policy makers consisting of leading-practice policy options. www.economics-ejournal.org 3 Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 12 (2018–12) Global Solutions Papers The G20 are in a unique position to champion new ideas on an informal basis. They are also willing and prepared to take on cross-cutting issues of high complexity.2 In terms of relevance, the G20 assemble a variety of countries playing a key role in climate change and energy security matters.3 Since the G20 include countries with different levels of development, any cross- member state consensus on such issues is likely to have a strong signalling effect for the rest of the world.4 1 Inform – data gathering and harmonisation Similar to the efforts undertaken to harmonise the data on climate change