Understanding the tipping point of urban conflict: Violence, cities and poverty reduction in the developing world The case of Patna, India Policy Brief 1.0 Conceptual framework situations where a given social process becomes generalised rather than specific, but Cities are inherently conflictual spaces, in that in a rapid rather than gradual manner. A they concentrate large numbers of diverse tipping point therefore inherently embodies a people with incongruent interests within a dynamic temporal dimension, and can contained environment. This conflict is more moreover apply to both increases as well as often than not managed or resolved in a reductions in violence; we denote a process peaceful manner through a range of social, whereby situations of generalised violence cultural and political mechanisms, but move back to circumstances of managed sometimes can generate violence when such conflict as representing a “reversal” of the forms of regulation break down or can no tipping point of urban conflict. longer cope. 1 The broader development literature on urban violence suggests that it is 1.2 Patna as a case study a phenomenon that can be linked to the Patna was chosen as a case study city due to presence of certain specific factors, or its dual association with poverty and urban combination of factors in cities. In particular, violence. The city has long ranked amongst rapid urban growth, high levels of persistent the poorest Tier II urban settlements (i.e. poverty in cities, youth bulges, political between 1-5 million inhabitants) in India, and exclusion, and gender-based insecurity have is located within the state of Bihar that has all been widely correlated with urban violence historically systematically displayed the lowest in recent years. per capital income levels in India (Government There is however a paucity of research of Bihar, 2011). Bihar is furthermore well concerning the causal mechanisms through known for its high levels of violence, which can which such factors might (or might not) cause take on a variety of forms, from Maoist the conflict inherent to everyday urban living to insurgency to dacoity to communal and caste become violent. Getting to grips with this violence. Indeed, Bihar is reported to be the transition is clearly of critical normative second most violent state in India in terms of importance, however, and it is this concern murders, and Patna was notorious for being that lies at the heart of the present research an extremely insecure city during the 1990s project. We conceive of the moment of and early 2000s, to the extent that it was potential movement from conflict to violence in frequently referred to as the “crime capital” of terms of a “tipping point”. The origins of this India.2 notion go back to the 1950s, but at its most Since 2005 and the accession to power of the basic, the idea posits that certain types of reformer politician Nitish Kumar, however, social phenomena can move from being both Bihar has undergone what is sometimes relatively rare occurrences to very common referred to as a “miracle”, whereby violence ones in a rapid and exponential manner has been significantly reduced, and the state (Gladwell, 2000). In other words, it relates to has engaged on a well-managed 2 developmental route associated with high The second phase of research entailed economic growth and infrastructural primary data collection through qualitative improvement. Particularly symbolic of this fieldwork. Three wards deemed representative transformation is the fact that Patna is now of the generally urban dynamics of the city generally considered a peaceful and secure were chosen on the basis of a range of socio- city, in sharp contrast to the past. To this economic indicators, as well as their variable extent, Patna constitutes something of a crime trends, and the factors identified in the “counterfactual” case study of the tipping point media research. These were wards 26, 51 and of urban conflict, offering a view on how a 69 (see map 1). 3 Within each of these, one or situation of chronic urban violence can revert two slum settlements were chosen, insofar as to one of managed conflict, and more broadly 72 percent of the population of Patna lives demonstrating “the contingency of within areas identified for slum upgrading, assumptions that underpin particular reconstruction or resettlement (Government of theoretical constructs”, and facilitate Bihar, 2006: 32), and also to allow for an “imaginative leaps in theory and hypothesis exploration of the relationship between conflict, formation” (Lebow, 2010: 6). violence, and poverty. 2.0 Research methods In ward 26, two slum settlements, Buddha Colony Thana Ke Aage basti and North Research was conducted by a joint University Mandiri basti, made up respectively of 12 and of Manchester-Institute for Human 42 households, were chosen. In ward 51, the Development team made up of Dennis New Ambedkar Colony area was chosen, Rodgers, Shivani Satija, Balendushekhar which was made up of three slums: New Mangalmurty, Sagarika Chowdhary, and Alakh Ambedkar Colony, the Musahartoli slum, and Sharma, in three phases between April-July the Dhom Khana slum, composed respectively 2011. The first phase of the research involved of 303, 17, and 14 households. Finally, in ward obtaining secondary data concerning crime 69, the Mansoorganj Musahartoli slum, made and violence in Patna from a range of sources up of 100 households, was chosen. including the National Crime Records Bureau, the Patna Police, the Patna Municipal Each slum case study involved a walking tour Corporation, as well as surveying media of the slum in order to observe its physical reports on crime and violence in the city. This features, and identify potential issues about suggested that contrarily to the general which to ask questions and through which to rhetoric concerning a “miraculous” reduction in begin discussions. The latter involved a violence, overall crime rates in both Bihar and mixture of focused group discussions (FGDs) Patna have actually increased since 2005. and one-on-one interviewing with slum dwellers. Interviews were also carried out with At the same time, the statistics also show a local ward councillors, NGO workers, priests variable trend regarding violent and non- and imams, and local Police officers. The violent crimes. While violent crimes such as primary objective of the FGDs and the murder, kidnapping, or robbery have declined interviews was to explore both the potential significantly since 2005, non-violent crimes sources of conflict as well as violence trends in such as theft and burglary have increased. Patna from a local-level perspective, as well Disaggregated crime data collected from local as the links between them. In each slum, police stations in the city highlight a significant FGDs were carried out with mixed groups and spatial variability in this trend across the city, various interest groups (e.g. women, youth, however. This can potentially be attributed to a and locally significant groups such as range of factors including the segregated landowners, Scheduled Caste, Muslims, etc.), spatial distribution of caste and religious while interview were conducted with locally groups within Patna, the city’s uneven and prominent individuals (e.g. a local landowner, deficient infrastructure, as well as the city’s a school teacher, etc.), or else to follow up on economic boom and private property key issues with a particularly articulate development, Hindu-Muslim tensions, and focused group discussant. rising rural-urban migration. 3 Map 1: Case study wards Source: DFID India (Patna office) The third phase of the research involved constituting almost 60% of all occupations. administering a census survey to all 771 The modal monthly household income was households in the four slums studied. 86% of between 2,501-5,000 INR, although there was households (664) were successfully surveyed, significant variation between slums. 59% of and the sample was overall deemed the households did not have any access to representative. The survey focused on conflict drainage, and 22% reported that their and violence, but also included questions members had to resort to open defecation. about the socio-economic status of 3.0 Major research findings households. In this respect, the four slums contained a total population of some 4,300 Although the different slums studied displayed people, for an average household size of specific characteristics and trends, a number between 5 and 6 persons per household. Over of common violence trends emerged. Firstly, 90% of survey respondents reported having Nitish Kumar’s accession to power in 2005 been living in their slum settlement for more was perceived by 88% of households as than 10 years. 52% of the slum population was having constituted a turning point in Patna’s male, and 48% female. Over 70% was under history of violence, which was generally the age of 30, with 15-29 year olds – i.e. youth considered to have declined significantly. At – making up 30 percent. 80% of the slum the same time, however, 76% of survey population was scheduled caste, 11 percent respondents claimed that conflict and violence backwards caste, and 5 percent forward caste. continued to be a regular and significant Almost 80% of households were Hindu, and feature of life in their slum. This paradox can 20 percent were Muslims. In terms of be explained by the fact that the reduction in education, 80% of the households claimed that violent crime in Patna has been achieved all their male members had completed their through forms of highly targeted policing, primary education, while 48% of households which have had both intended and unintended reported that their female members had not consequences. received any schooling at all. 80% of those In particular, the Nitish Kumar government who work are unskilled, with daily wage work proudly – and rightly – publicises its track 4 record of having broken the back of organised generating conflicts reported in the slums criminality in Patna through campaigns of studied.