COUNTRY REPORT Kuwait Kuwait at a glance: 2001-02 OVERVIEW The political scene will continue to be marked by persistent wrangling among the different elements of the country’s political structures, despite the recent cabinet changes. Differences between the leading branches of the ruling family over issues of power sharing and the succession are likely to persist. The lack of consensus and deep divisions within the National Assembly will continue to delay the passage of legislation needed to implement political and economic reforms, although limited fiscal reform is in prospect. Comfortable trade surpluses and investment income will ensure current-account surpluses of US$8.9bn in both 2001 and 2002. This will be despite an anticipated drop in oil prices, since oil production will rise slightly in 2002. Growth will slow to 2.1% in 2001 from its 2000 level of 4%, but will pick up to 2.5% in 2002. Key changes from last month Political outlook • Relations between the executive and legislature will remain fraught, although a few reform initiatives will be carried through. Kuwaiti concessions to Iraq will be linked to the issue of prisoners of war. Economic policy outlook • Ministerial members have been appointed to a committee to oversee economic reform, but the process will continue to be slow and constrained by political wrangling. Job creation will remain a primary objective of policy, slowing privatisation efforts and driving attempts to attract foreign investment. A new law allowing foreigners to invest in Kuwait without a local sponsor or partner has been passed. Economic forecast • As oil prices are forecast to gradually decline in 2001 and 2002, growth will slow from 4% in 2000 to 2.1% in 2001, but will pick up to 2.5% in 2002 as government spending and oil production rise in that year. Fiscal and current-account surpluses will prevail over the forecast period. 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ISSN 0269-5715 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Patersons Dartford, Questor Trade Park, 151 Avery Way, Dartford, Kent DA1 1JS, UK Kuwait 1 Contents 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 5 Annual indicators 6 Quarterly indicators 7 Outlook for 2001-02 7 Political outlook 8 Economic policy outlook 9 Economic forecast 12 The political scene 16 Economic policy 19 The domestic economy 19 Economic trends 21 Oil and gas 25 Infrastructure and services 27 Foreign trade and payments List of tables 10 International assumptions summary 11 Forecast summary 20 Money supply 22 Trends in spot quotations for selected crudes 23 Crude production and quotas 23 World oil supply and demand: IEA estimates and forecasts 26 Results for selected commercial banks 27 Net foreign assets of local banks 28 Current account List of figures 12 Gross domestic product 12 Kuwaiti dinar real exchange rates 22 Oil prices EIU Country Report June 2001 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2001 . Kuwait 3 Summary June 2001 Outlook for 2001-02 Relations between the executive and legislature will remain fraught, although a few reform initiatives will be carried through. Kuwaiti concessions to Iraq will be linked to the issue of prisoners of war. Job creation will remain a primary objective of economic policy, slowing down privatisation efforts and driving attempts to attract foreign expertise. Healthy oil revenue will produce fiscal surpluses in both 2001 and 2002. The EIU expects that GDP growth will slow to an average annual rate of around 2.3% per year over the forecast period, down from 4% in 2000. Continued healthy trade surpluses will result in current-account surpluses in both 2001 and 2002. The political scene A senior woman media figure has been assassinated in public. The Con- stitutional Court has again upheld the ban on women's political participation. MPs have said they will pursue fraud allegations against a former minister and have continued to resist foreign involvement in the upstream oil sector. Differences with Iraq were not resolved at the Arab summit in Amman. Economic policy Ministerial members have been appointed to a committee to oversee economic reform. A new law was passed that will allow foreigners to invest in Kuwait without a local sponsor or partner. It aims to attract know-how as well as foreign investment, and local commentators have highlighted the volume of Kuwaiti funds that still remain abroad. MPs have complained of a lack of information about “Project Kuwait”. The Kuwait Investment Authority plans to sell half of its share in the Mobile Telecommunications Company. The domestic economy Since oil prices are forecast to decline only gradually over the next two years, real GDP growth should average 2.3% per year over the forecast period, and the budget surplus will narrow. The Kuwait Stock Exchange gained 17% in the year to mid-June 2001. Kuwait has largely complied with its reduced OPEC output quota. Renewal of the Japanese concession in the Neutral Zone has been discussed. The oil minister has offered to prequalify more oil companies for Project Kuwait. Tourism facilities are planned for Failaka and Bubiyan islands. The first non-Kuwaiti purchase of a Kuwaiti bank has been announced. Gulf International Bank's ownership change could prepare it for privatisation. Foreign trade and The current-account surplus nearly trebled to an estimated US$14.1bn in 2000. payments Steps towards an Arab free-trade agreement will include an economic summit in November. Talks on free trade between the EU and Gulf Co-operation Council countries have made little progress. Editors: Merli Baroudi (editor); Hania Farhan (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: June 20th 2001 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule EIU Country Report June 2001 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2001 4 Kuwait Political structure Official name State of Kuwait Form of state Emirate Head of state The emir, chosen from the Al Sabah family. Currently Sheikh Jabr al-Ahmed al-Jabr al-Sabah, who acceded in 1977 Legal system Based on the constitution of 1962, as amended or suspended by emiri decree Legislature Unicameral National Assembly of 50 elected members plus appointed cabinet ministers. The assembly has been dissolved three times by emiri decree, in 1976, 1986 and 1999 National elections July 1999; next election scheduled for October 2003 Political groupings No political parties are allowed, though informal groupings exist. The main ones are two Sunni Islamist groupings (the Islamic Constitutional Movement and the Islamic Popular Grouping, also known as the salafi), and the Shia Islamists of the National Islamic Alliance. The Kuwait Democratic Forum is a secular political group with liberal and Arab nationalist tendencies; the National Democratic Grouping is a newer liberal group. Most deputies sit as independents, and many are primarily loyal to their tribal interests Executive Power is exercised by the emir through a Council of Ministers (last appointed on February 14th 2001), headed by a prime minister who is chosen by the emir Council of Ministers Crown prince & prime minister Sheikh Saad Abdullah al-Salem al-Sabah First deputy prime minister & minister of foreign affairs Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Jabr al-Sabah Deputy prime minister & minister of defence Sheikh Jabr al-Mubarak al-Hamad al-Sabah Deputy prime minister & minister of state for cabinet