org-cdr-cover-final 280306.qxd 17/05/2007 14:24 Page 1 OxfordResearchGroup building bridges for global security In collaboration with Beyond Trident OxfordResearchGroup Oxford Research Group (ORG) is an independent non-governmental organisation (NGO) which works to develop effective methods for people to bring about positive change on issues of national and international security by non-violent means. Established in 1982, it is a registered charity and a “This report covers public company limited by guarantee. In 2003 its founder director Scilla Elworthy was awarded the Niwano Peace Prize for her work with ORG, and in April 2005 The Independent newspaper named the nuclear debate ORG one of the top 20 think tanks in the UK undertaking “blue skies” thinking. comprhensively from all sides of the We carry out and commission research into realistic non-military alternatives to current security THE FUTURE argument. orthodoxy. We publish and disseminate our findings through reports, seminars, consultations and Regardless of their private dialogues. Our practice is to make accurate information available so that open public debate OF BRITAIN’S convictions, the can take place. We also seek to foster dialogue between policy-makers and their critics, to help build bridges of understanding as a means of developing new ideas and making possible significant policy authors make a shifts. ORG seeks to promote more transparent, accountable and informed decision-making compelling case for processes in UK and overseas governments. NUCLEAR a wider debate in Britain about the WEAPONS: future of our About this report nuclear weapon This report is published in the context of a series of inquiries taking place within the Defence capability. They Committee of the House of Commons on “The Future of the Strategic Nuclear Deterrent: the Strategic EXPERTS also show that there Context”. All the contributors to the debates published within the covers of this report are prominent is plenty of time to experts who take very differing views about what British nuclear policy should be at the beginning come to of the 21st century. The report provides a platform for the authors to set out their contrasting positions “I welcome a debate on the future of Britain’s REFRAME a considered on key aspects of the debate, and respond to each other’s concerns. nuclear weapons. The military case has gone decision. Every The report opens with a technical and scientific account by Dr. Frank Barnaby, one of the report’s with the end of the Cold War. The issue is now THE DEBATE Member of co-editors, of Britain’s current nuclear weapons force, including comments on possible future the political one – whether or not France should Parliament should nuclear weapons developments, and concludes with an integrative assessment and conclusions by be the only nuclear power in Europe.” read it.” Professor Ken Booth, the report’s other co-editor. Contributors: Rt. Hon. Lord Healey of Riddlestone, Air Marshal The Lord ORG offers this report as a partner in a year-long collaborative initiative called “Beyond Trident” Secretary of State for Defence (1964 – ‘70); Dr. Liam Fox MP Garden KCB, Liberal with three other independent UK-based non-governmental organisations (NGOs), whose shared Opposition Spokesman of Foreign & Commonwealth Affairs (1980 – ‘87) Dr. Caroline Lucas MEP Democrat Spokesperson purpose is to raise public awareness at all levels, foster public and parliamentary debate, and create on Defence, pressure for a high-level, non-partisan investigation into nuclear weapons policy, placed in the context Admiral Sir Raymond Lygo House of Lords; author of of Britain’s current and future security needs, and our global security and international legal “A powerful, balanced and informative General Sir Hugh Beach Can Deterrence Last? obligations.In particular, a key objective of Beyond Trident is to ensure the process is open, informed contribution to a vital debate. Both sides of and accountable. We hope this report will make a positive contribution to this process. the argument combine passion, conviction and Professor Nick Grief Dr. Steven Haines knowledge. They share a desire for a peaceful world. The challenge is how we get there.” Rt. Hon. Clare Short MP Commodore Tim Hare Rt. Hon Sir Malcolm Rifkind, Secretary of State for Defence (1992 –’95) and Dr. Julian Lewis MP Oxford Research Group Foreign Affairs (1995 – ’97) Dr. Mary Midgley 51 Plantation Road Oxford OX2 6JE United Kingdom T +44 (0)1865 242 819 F +44 (0)1865 794 652 E [email protected] www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk Edited by Professor Ken Booth and Dr. Frank Barnaby CURRENT DECISIONS REPORT Registered Charity No. 299436 With a foreword by Dr. John Sloboda MARCH 2006 org-cdr-cover-final 280306.qxd 17/05/2007 14:24 Page 2 Published by Oxford Research Group, 2006 RECENT PUBLICATIONS FROM OXFORD RESEARCH GROUP Oxford Research Group Iran: Consequences of a War, Paul Rogers, ORG,February 2006 51 Plantation Road This briefing paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the likely nature of US or Israeli Oxford OX2 6JE military action that would be intended to disable Iran’s nuclear capabilities. It outlines both United Kingdom the immediate consequences in terms of loss of human life, facilities and infrastructure, and also the likely Iranian responses, which would be extensive. Copyright © Oxford Research Group, 2006 All rights reserved. Iraqi Liberation? Towards an Integrated Strategy, ORG, November 2005 This discussion document draws on the expertise of an international high-level consultative ISBN 0 9511361 9 4 panel, including British, Iraqi, Middle Eastern and American experts from the military, foreign service, intelligence community and civil society. It brings together seven key elements of a positive alternative strategy for Iraqi stabilisation and development. About the “Beyond Trident” initiative Oxford Research Group is a partner in a new initiative called “Beyond Trident”, a strategic alliance of four independent UK-based non-governmental organisations (NGOs) over a period of one year to Iraq and the War on Terror: Twelve Months of Insurgency, ORG International Security Report, Paul conduct new and in-depth research, foster debate in Parliament and among stakeholders, raise public Rogers, I.B.Tauris, November 2005 awareness at all levels, and create pressure for a high level, non-partisan investigation and inquiry into Since the start of the Iraq conflict, Professor Paul Rogers has produced a series of monthly reports for UK nuclear weapons policy in the context of actual security needs and objectives. the ORG website scrutinising developments in the occupation, and the Iraqi response. These briefings, from May 2004 to April 2005, have been brought together and published by I.B. Tauris to provide a More information about the Beyond Trident project can be found on the ORG website or the websites of detailed and authoritative analysis of the ‘war on terror’ and related conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan our partner organisations: over the period of that year. The Acronym Institute for Disarmament Diplomacy www.acronym.org.uk Also available from Oxford Research Group: The British American Security Information Council (BASIC) www.basicint.org The WMD Awareness Programme www.comeclean.org.uk Thinking the Unthinkable: Japanese Nuclear Power and Proliferation in East Asia, Frank Barnaby and Shaun Burnie, August 2005 Everyone’s Guide to Achieving Change: A step-by-step approach to dialogue with decision-makers, Acknowledgements May 2005 (4th edition) Oxford Research Group and our Beyond Trident partner organisations are grateful to the Ploughshares Nuclear Weapons Free Zones: The Untold Success Story of Nuclear Disarmament and Fund, the Polden-Puckham Charitable Foundation, the W.A. Southall Trust, the Network for Social Non-Proliferation, February 2005 (with BASIC) Change and the Dulverton Trust for their support of the initiative, of which this publication is one of four major outputs. ORG also gratefully acknowledges the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Tust, the Polden- Cutting the Costs of War: Non-military Prevention and Resolution of Conflict, Puckham Charitable Foundation and our many individual Sustainers and supporters for their core Scilla Elworthy, March 2004 (with Peace Direct) support, without which we would not be able to carry out our work. War Prevention Works: 50 Stories of People Resolving Conflict, Dylan Matthews, September 2001 Our deep appreciation goes to our eminent (and extremely busy) contributors for their enthusiastic engagement with this project, and especially to Professor Ken Booth for taking on the daunting task of Previous Current Decisions Reports include: analysing the many complex arguments and counter arguments put forward in these essays. With consummate skill, he synthesises the widely differing perspectives of the contributors, drawing from Nuclear Terrorism in Britain: Risks and Realities, May 2003 their points of concurrence a powerfully persuasive conclusion. Strategies for Combating International Terrorism, January 2002 American Missile Defence: Views from China and Europe, May 2000 Collective Security: A New Role for Britain, March 2000 www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk For a full list of ORG publications please see www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk Many ORG publications can be purchased online at www.orgshop.org.uk Commissioning editor and report production: Rosie Houldsworh Page layout by James Kemp. Printed on paper from sustainably managed sources usng the environmental waterless offset process, by Seacourt. CDR- text - FINAL - 300306.qxd 17/05/2007 14:01 Page 1 Current Decisions Report The Future of Britain’s Nuclear Weapons: Experts reframe the debate Edited by Professor Ken Booth and Dr. Frank Barnaby March 2006 OxfordResearchGroup CDR- text - FINAL - 300306.qxd 17/05/2007 14:01 Page 2 OxfordResearchGroup The Future of Britain’s Nuclear Weapons Contents Foreword Dr. John Sloboda 3 Background What is “Trident”? The facts and figures of the British nuclear force Dr. Frank Barnaby 7 The Debate About the contributors 14 Debate 1 On the political rationale for the UK retaining its nuclear weapons Rt.