GRA, Incorporated Economic Counsel to the Transportation Industry ACRP Project Number 03-36 Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies Final Report Appendix B: Airport Industry Use of Socioeconomic Data for Air Passenger Demand Studies 6/28/18 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD NAS-NRC Prepared by: GRA, Incorporated With: Atlanta Analytics, LLC and Aviation System Consulting, LLC 115 West Avenue • Suite 201 • Jenkintown, PA 19046 • 215-884-7500 • 215-884-1385 • www.gra-inc.com Table of Contents Page TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................. i LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES ........................................................................................... iii B.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. B-1 B.2 SOURCES OF AIR PASSENGER AND SOCIOECONOMIC DATA ..................... B-3 a. Air Passenger Traffic Data................................................................................... B-3 b. National, State, Regional, and Local Socioeconomic Data ................................ B-7 c. Airport Air Passenger Surveys .......................................................................... B-17 Survey Purposes ..................................................................................................... B-18 Survey Questions and Data Elements .................................................................... B-19 d. Other Surveys ...................................................................................................... B-29 Household and Other Traveler Surveys ................................................................. B-29 Consumer Expenditure Survey .............................................................................. B-47 e. New Sources of Socioeconomic Data ................................................................. B-48 Credit Card Transaction Data ................................................................................ B-48 Cell Phone Data ..................................................................................................... B-49 Other Data Sources ................................................................................................ B-50 B.3 AIRPORT USES OF SOCIOECONOMIC DATA IN AIR PASSENGER DEMAND STUDIES ................................................................................................................................ B-52 a. Contribution of Socioeconomic Factors to Air Travel Demand Forecasting B-52 b. Types and Purposes of Air Passenger Demand Studies .................................. B-53 Projections of Future Demand for Air Travel ........................................................ B-53 Airport Master Plans and Facility Development Plans .......................................... B-54 Airport Air Service Development and Passenger Leakage Studies ....................... B-55 Airport Choice and Airport Ground Access Mode Choice Studies ....................... B-55 Aviation and Airport System Planning Studies ..................................................... B-56 Airport Bond Prospectus Documents and Studies ................................................. B-57 Airline Passenger Demand Studies ........................................................................ B-58 Projections of Future Demand for Aircraft or Other Aviation-Supporting Goods and Services .......................................................................................................... B-58 c. Assessment of the Current State of Practice of Air Passenger Forecasts ...... B-59 Approach ................................................................................................................ B-59 d. Review of Existing Studies ................................................................................. B-59 FAA Terminal Area Forecast ................................................................................ B-59 State Aviation System Plans .................................................................................. B-65 Regional Airport System Plans .............................................................................. B-70 GRA, Incorporated i 6/28/18 Airport Master Plans .............................................................................................. B-91 Metropolitan Regions and Major Airports Outside the U.S. ............................... B-100 Air Service Development Studies and Airport Demand Leakage Studies .......... B-114 Airport Demand Allocation and Ground Access Mode Choice Studies ............. B-115 Airport Choice Models and Airport Demand Allocation Studies ....................... B-116 Airport Bond Prospectus Documents and Studies ............................................... B-123 Airline Passenger Demand Analysis ................................................................... B-132 Industry Air Travel Demand Projections ............................................................. B-133 B.4 ANALYSIS AND CRITIQUE OF AIRPORT USES OF SOCIOECONOMIC DATA ................................................................................................................................................ B-139 a. Socioeconomic Factors Considered in Recent Practice ................................. B-139 b. Relevance and Statistical Significance of Socioeconomic Factors ................ B-140 c. Extent of Use of Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data ..................................... B-141 d. Ease of Availability of Socioeconomic Data for Future Studies ................... B-142 e. Source of Forecast Values of Socioeconomic Variables ................................ B-143 f. Implications for Future Air Passenger Demand Studies ............................... B-143 B.5 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................... B-145 ATTACHMENT B-1 .................................................................................................................... B-155 References for Review of Airport Planning Studies .............................................. B-155 I. Airport Aviation Demand Forecasts.................................................................... B-155 I.1. Large Hubs: ................................................................................................... B-155 I.2. Medium Hubs: ............................................................................................... B-158 I.3. Small Hubs: ................................................................................................... B-159 I.4. Non-Hubs: ..................................................................................................... B-161 I.5. General Aviation: .......................................................................................... B-162 I.6. FAA Guidance - Airport Master Plans: ......................................................... B-162 II. Airport Demand Leakage Studies ...................................................................... B-162 III. State and Regional Airport System Plans - Demand Forecasts ..................... B-163 IV. Non-U.S. Airports Aviation Demand Forecasts............................................... B-164 ATTACHMENT B-2 ..................................................................................................................... B-166 Portland International Airport Master Plan Update Forecast............................. B-166 ATTACHMENT B-3 ..................................................................................................................... B-171 United Kingdom Airports Commission Forecasting Process ............................... B-171 Allocation of National Demand to Analysis Zones................................................. B-174 Peer Reviews of Forecast Methodology and Assumptions .................................... B-175 GRA, Incorporated ii 6/28/18 List of Figures and Tables Figure B-1. Districts and District Banks of the Federal Reserve System ................................... B-9 Figure B-2. Variation of Trip Propensity with Income – Bay Area Air Passengers ................ B-20 Figure B-3. Change in OTTI Survey Respondent Household Income from 2005 to 2011 ...... B-26 Figure B-4. TAF-M Analysis Structure for Domestic Passenger Flows and Commercial Aircraft Operations ......................................................................................................... B-62 Figure B-5. NERASP Air Service Areas for Domestic U.S. O&D Demand............................ B-72 Figure B-6. Independent Variables Used in Final O&D Forecasts for PANYNJ Airports ...... B-78 Figure B-7. Geneva Airport Forecast Model Structure .......................................................... B-103 Figure B-8. Increase in Air Travel Propensity with Income - 2012 ....................................... B-135 Figure B-9. Increase in Air Travel Propensity with Income - 2013 ....................................... B-136 Figure B-10. Increase in Air Travel Propensity with Urbanization ........................................ B-137 Figure B.2-1 Forecast Cumulative Distribution of PDX Enplaned Passengers ......................B-167 Table B-1. Federal Agency Sources of Socioeconomic Data ................................................... B-10 Table B-2. State Agency Sources of Socioeconomic Data ......................................................