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Box 35097, Dar es Salaam Tanzania Tel: +255-(0)766079061 SEI - Asia 15th Floor, Witthyakit Building 254 Chulalongkorn University Chulalongkorn Soi 64 Phyathai Road, Pathumwan Bangkok 10330 Thailand Tel+(66) 22514415 Stockholm Environment Institute, Project Report 2015-06 SEI - Oxford Suite 193 266 Banbury Road, Oxford, OX2 7DL UK Tel+44 1865 426316 SEI - Stockholm Kräftriket 2B SE -106 91 Stockholm Sweden Tel+46 8 674 7070 SEI - Tallinn Lai 34, Box 160 EE-10502, Tallinn Estonia Tel+372 6 276 100 SEI - U.S. 11 Curtis Avenue Somerville, MA 02144 USA Tel+1 617 627-3786 SEI - York University of York Heslington York YO10 5DD UK Tel+44 1904 43 2897 The Stockholm Environment Institute Developing Sweden’s transmission grid: SEI is an independent, international research institute.It has been engaged in environment and development issuesat local, national, what are the drivers and barriers? regional and global policy levels for more than a quarterofacentury. SEI supports decision making for sustainable development by bridging science and policy. Josefin Wangel sei-international.org Developing Sweden’s transmission grid: what are the drivers and barriers? Josefin Wangel Deliverable D4.4 within the NORSTRAT project Stockholm Environment Institute Linnégatan 87D, Box 24218 104 51 Stockholm Sweden Tel: +46 8 30 80 44 Web: www.sei-international.org Director of Communications: Robert Watt Layout/graphics: Richard Clay Editors: Andy Mash and Tom Gill Cover Photo: © Hakan Dahlstrom / flickr This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes, without special permission from the copyright holder(s) provided acknowledgement of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or other commercial purpose, without the written permission of the copyright holder(s). The research presented in this report is funded by the Nordic Energy Research programme Sustainable Energy Systems 2050. This support is gratefully appreciated. Copyright © June 2015 by Stockholm Environment Institute SUMMARY U climate and energy policy aims to reduce CO2 The bidding areas (i.e. the electricity pricing zones in Eemissions by 80% before 2050. To achieve this, the Sweden) can be seen as a driver of grid development electricity sector will have to be 95–100% decarbonised. because, by translating the spatial mismatch between The NORSTRAT project aims to build knowledge power production and consumption and the resulting about options for a carbon neutral and integrated Nordic congestion in supply into electricity prices, they power system in the period to 2050. To allow further expose a need for further grid investment to even out integration of renewable energy sources (RES), the the price differences. However, it should be noted that transmission grid must be strengthened and expanded the price differences between the bidding areas are on in Sweden, across the Nordic countries, and between average quite small. the Nordic region and Europe. Analysis of Svenska Kraftnät’s internal operations This study focuses on developing the transmission shows that both its core values and long-term grid in Sweden, and identifies drivers that can make planning practices support grid development. Svenska the Swedish transmission grid fit to support a carbon- Kraftnät sees that it has an opportunity to contribute neutral Nordic power system, as well as barriers to to decarbonizing Europe, and thus has a responsibility doing so. The study combined a multi-level perspective to do so, even for grid investments that are not with institutional analysis. profitable for Sweden. While the study shows that Svenska Kraftnät, the Planning practice is also a driver because, through Swedish transmission grid operator, is the main incorporating scenarios of increased volumes of source of drivers for developing the transmission renewable energy (especially from wind power), it grid in Sweden toward integration of RES, it seems is possible to proactively plan grid investment, thus that the most important drivers are indirect. For lowering the risk of future bottlenecks with regard to example, concern over climate change is a strong RES. We also identified key barriers in investment driver for integrating RES, which in turn demands planning, and in the formal institutions and cognitive transmission grid development, while the impetus rules related to the concession process. The latter toward an integrated European market also drives grid include concerns over energy security at the national development as a means to overcome bottlenecks that level, about the performance of national industry, and affect the energy market. about impacts on the local environment and health. In contrast to the indirect drivers mentioned above, these Administrative instruments and legislation that are barriers more directly influence grid development. influencing grid development are linked to these Conflicts between concerns about health and the external drivers. In particular, Directive 2009/28/EC local environment versus issues of national or global and the electricity certificate system clearly stimulate sustainability are common. Other conflicts revolve grid development because they help to establish new around land-use issues. power production from renewable energy sources, which, because Svenska Kraftnät is obliged to connect Our analysis of the formal institutions and cognitive every producer of electricity, forces it to further develop frames related to the concession process revealed the national grid. (The connection obligation is not a uncertainty and ambiguity in several parts of the driver in itself, but is rather a formalized absence of concession process. This increases the risks of conflicts barriers for new power production to get connected.) and appeals, which can delay development projects. iii DEVELOPING SWEDEN’S TRANSMISSION GRID: WHAT ARE THE DRIVERS AND BARRIERS? CONTENTS Summary iii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Aim and research questions 1 1.2 Structure of the report 1 2 Theoretical framework 2 2.1 Multi-level perspective 2 2.2 Understanding the socio-technical regime of transmission grid development 3 2.3 What are the drivers and barriers? 4 3 Methods 6 3.1 Analysing policy and planning documents 6 3.2 Interviews 6 3.3 Looking for conflict 6 4 A historical overview of transmission grid development 7 4.1 What is a transmission grid? 7 4.2 The Swedish power grid today 7 4.3 From local to national grids 8 4.4 Deregulation: from a national to a Nordic electricity market 10 4.5 New regulations: from a Nordic to a European electricity market 10 4.6 Summing up: what can history tell us about transmission grid development? 11 5 Transmission grid development projects and the NORSTRAT target 12 5.1 Background data from the NORSTRAT project 12 5.2 Transmission grid projects in the pipeline 13 5.3 Planned transmission grid projects in relation to the NORSTRAT scenarios 16 6 Drivers of and barriers to developing the transmission grid 18 6.1 Formal institutions 18 6.3 Actors and networks 32 6.4 Technology 32 6.5 Landscape signals 34 6.6 Niche drivers 35 7 Concluding discussion 36 7.1 Research questions revisited 36 References 40 Appendix A: Drivers of and barriers to transmission grid development 43 Appendix B: Transmission grid projects in Sweden 45 iv STOCKHOLM ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE 1 INTRODUCTION he EU 20-20-20 target states that at least 20 % To structure the work a number of subsidiary research Tof the energy used in the European Union should questions were formulated: come from renewable energy sources (RES) by 2020 (Directive 2009/28/EG), which translates into • What have been the drivers of and barriers a RES share of 30–35 % of all electricity production to transmission grid development in Sweden (EURELECTRIC 2011). The 20 % target, however, is historically, and what can be learned from these an average across the EU, and there are specific targets when exploring transmission grid development that apply to each member state. The 20 % target is today and in the future? also broken down into separate targets for electricity, heating and transport. In the long term, the EU climate • What is driving current transmission grid and energy policy aims to reduce CO2 emissions by development projects in Sweden, and are these 80 % before 2050 (European Commission 2011). To in line with the development needed to meet the achieve this, the electricity sector will have to be 95– NORSTRAT target? 100 % decarbonised (ECF 2010). • What are the drivers of and barriers to current The NORSTRAT project aims to build knowledge about transmission grid development projects in Sweden? options for a carbon neutral future and an integrated Nordic power system in the period to 2050. To allow This study does not make policy recommendations. further integration of renewable energy sources, the This will be done at a later stage. Nor does it make any transmission grid must be strengthened and expanded comparisons between the Nordic countries.2 in Sweden, across the Nordic countries and between the Nordic region and Europe. 1.2 Structure of the report 1.1 Aim and research questions Section 2 presents the theoretical framework of the study and introduces a set of hypothetical drivers of The aim of this study is to explore the drivers of and and barriers to transmission grid development. Section barriers to developing a transmission grid that supports 3 describes the methods used. Section 4 provides a the increased integration of RES in Sweden, in order to historical overview of transmission grid development. achieve the long-term target of fossil-fuel-free power Section 5 investigates planned transmission grid production in the Nordic countries by 2050.1 Based on development projects and compares these to the this aim, the following overarching research question NORSTRAT scenarios. Section 6 presents the was formulated: identified drivers of and barriers tor transmission grid development in Sweden.