March 2021 Contents World Stock Markets . 2 Global Stock Index . 2 United States . 3 Europe . 8 Asian-Pacific . 13 Global Interest Rates . 20 The Bond Universe . 20 United States . 21 European and Asian-Pacific . 25 International Currency Relationships . 26 Dollar Rates . 26 Other Rates . 29 Cryptocurrencies . 31 Metals & Energy . 32 Gold & Silver . 32 Crude Oil . 32 Natural Gas . 33 Economic, Monetary and Cultural Trends . 34 Economy & Deflation . 34 Cultural Trends . 37 A Capsule Summary of the Wave Principle . 39 Glossary of Terms . 42 March 2021 Issue © March 5, 2021 (data through March 4) Announcements Steven Hochberg will conduct a workshop at the MoneyShow Virtual Expo on March 16 at 12:10pm EST. Steve will discuss GMP’s forecast for stocks, bonds, the U.S. dollar and precious metals. Register here: www.elliottwave.com/ wave/MoneyShow. Join our first-ever crypto trading course, “Crypto Trading Masterclass: Practical Strategies to Capitalize on the Hottest Market.” We start April 6. Get full details here: www.elliottwave.com/wave/CryptoCourse. Our next session of the Certified Elliott Wave Analyst (CEWA) 1 Prep Course has begun. Get the recordings now, and join instructor Jeffrey Kennedy, CEWA-M, for a live Q&A onApril 15. Learn more: www.elliottwave.com/CEWA. Our Customer Care team keeps winning awards! They received the “Best Customer Service 2020” designation from Live Help Now, and they’ve just received back-to-back monthly awards from the same group. We know we have a great team. It’s nice to hear that others think so too. WORLD STOCK MARKETS Asian-Pacific Markets - Bottom Line Most Asian-Pacific markets are correcting their U.S. Markets - Bottom Line advances of the past several months, led by the The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to 32,010 on infotech sector. February 24. This level might be viewed historically in the same way that the 1,000 level was in the late 1960s Global Stock Index through the early 1980s: a capstone for the bull market. By Robert Kelley, Stocks Pro Service If so, the Dow ended the bull meeting the top line of its The index made new all-time highs in February, almost Primary-degree channel. As we’ve discussed over the perfectly reaching the 527.86 (v)=(i) target mentioned course of the long topping process, the accumulation last month. With the pullback of the last two weeks, of bullish sentiment extremes is legion, and the legion Minor wave 3 up from the 2020 low is complete. The grew by leaps and bounds this month. initial decline was three waves, and another leg down European Markets - Bottom Line February’s new all-time high in the DAX remains unconfirmed by other European indexes, while a long-term bearish technical pattern is playing out in the FTSE 100. Sentiment extremes have pushed from optimistic to euphoric, which is commensurate with the high degree of the stock market peak that is forming. The credit markets got roiled in February, and disproportionate damage was inflicted on long-dated debt. Quick spikes in interest rates are problematic when financial institutions are overleveraged as they are today. A long-term trend toward rising interest rates will be a financial condition that hasn’t existed in nearly four decades. Elliott Wave International • www.elliottwave.com [email protected] • 770-536-0309 • 800-336-1618 The Global Market Perspective — March 5, 2021 has begun so a double zigzag appears to be unfolding. A target for the decline lies at 491.00 where both zigzags would be equal. That level is very close to the bottom of wave (iv) at 491.09 so this zone should provide good support if the correction continues. Wave 4 is already comparable in size to wave 2 of the same degree and could end very soon, though it could become more complex and unfold as a triangle. Either way, once wave 4 is done, expect wave 5 to new highs and the potential to form a significant top. U.S. Stock Markets By Steven Hochberg and Peter Kendall, Elliott Wave Finan- cial Forecast EWFF) Elliott Wave Analysis The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to 32,010 intraday on February 24, making a new all-time high. The index spiked above the top trendline of the Primary wave 5 channel and then closed last week at its lowest level of February, completing a brief throw- over (see text, p.73) and creating a weekly buying climax. Throw-overs terminate a trend, occurring September 21, 2020. The decline from 13,900.50, when the fifth wave has come too far, too fast, while a the high on February 15, traced out five waves. This weekly buying climax indicates exhaustion of a rally. impulse pattern is Minute wave 6 of a larger five- Combined, they signal a key inflexion point and the wave decline. Wave 7 ended at 13,328.25 on March potential completion of the bull market. 1. Wave 8 down is most often the extended wave of an impulse pattern, so the next wave lower should quickly retrace all Minor wave 5. Greater bearish potential exists. The key short-term level for the market’s bearish case is the recent highs. The short-term pattern in the NASDAQ supports the prospective for a major trend change. This next Investor Psychology chart of the E-mini NASDAQ 100 futures shows a EWFF has previously discussed how stock market completed five-wave rally for Minor wave 5 from peaks are driven by “the emotion of hope, which - 3 - The Global Market Perspective — March 5, 2021 Insider column of February 19, written by a young homeowner who says she used to think “paying off debt was the key to retiring early.” She realizes, however, that it “makes more sense to invest more instead.” She says categorically, “The average market return is higher on our investments than the interest rate for our mortgage.” On February 27, MarketWatch announced the arrival of “A New Wave of Fearless Investors” and stated that these bold buyers are “Ready to Pour” billions into stocks. According to an early February Deutsche Bank survey of online brokerage users, 61% are under 34 years of age and 45% are in their first year of investing. “As for the look ahead, the vibe seems positive,” reports Barron’s. “62% believe stocks are currently a good investment, with just 25% neutral,” leaving the bearish camp at 13%, if that. One of our favorite lines is from an investment advisor who urges investors to “Embrace the Optimism.” Over the past month, Google News finds 225 articles with the words “buy the dip” and “stocks.” With stocks is diffuse and often results in a rounded-type top.” immediately rebounding from successively shallower The end of a very long-term bull market, however, setbacks for the entirety of these novices’ investment can bring a finishing psychology that is more like careers, the stage is set for a historic selloff. that of a throw-over in which there is a final sudden Oh, and have we mentioned that the new gunslingers convergence of bullish forces that fades quickly. love to use options? The lower their market When this happens near the end of a fifth wave, trend experience, the more affection they seem have for reversals of high importance follow. The chart above leverage and derivatives. A Deutsche Bank survey shows SentimenTrader.com’s version of the Panic/ found that “The group of new individual investors Euphoria Model, which is an amalgamation of eight exhibits several characteristics which are markedly indicators that range from New York Stock Exchange different from those that have been trading for longer, short interest to individual and advisory sentiment and in particular show greater use of leverage, option surveys and retail gas prices. Prior model extremes trading and reliance on social media for investment occurred at 1.413 on March 24, 2000, the day of the advice.” According to the survey, of those with 1 year top in the S&P 500 that led to a 51% decline, and or less of experience, “more than 50% frequently 1.337 on October 12, 2007, one day after the S&P used options, with the same amount trading more 500 peaked and started a 58% decline. The other two than 10 times a month versus those with more than extremes were 1.427 on January 7, 2011 and 1.444 on two years of experience—19%.” The new wave no April 8, 2011, neither of which mattered immediately doubt contributed to the extreme indicator readings to stock prices, but the S&P soon declined 22% from we’ve displayed in recent months. The January May 2, 2011 to October 4, 2011. On February 12, EWFF showed a chart of large trader purchases of 2021, one trading day before the high in the NASDAQ call options to open (50 contracts or more) matching indexes, euphoria clearly got the best of the investment the extreme of March 2000, as small trader purchases public as the model shot to a new record at 1.613 of opening calls (10 contracts or less) surpassed the (Fibonacci rules!). That reading is nearly 12% higher extreme of the same date. In the week ended February than the previous peak level. 12, it happened again. Large traders matched the Qualitatively, the public’s market mindset is peak readings in March 2000, while Small Traders comparable to the extremes surrounding the top in were at 0.54, above the March 2000 high of 0.52. 2000. In March 2000, EWFF offered various quotes This sustained bullishness is critically important, as that we said deserved “preservation in bronze when EWFF noted in January: “The longer the needle stays the bear market is mature.” The same treatment befits pinned to these extremes, the more violent the eventual several quotes that you’ll find in this month’s letter.