NAVIGATING THE TECH STORM THE BUSINESS IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY BEYOND THE HYPE NICKLAS BERGMAN ADVANCE PRAISE “Tis book is an amazing resource and handbook packed with case studies for anyone looking to understand the past, present and future of technology. Not only is it highly inspiring, it also highlights the opportunities presented by the ongoing digital revolution – clearly setting out why the archi- tecture of continuous innovation has become an imperative for any progressive organization navigating the future.” ANNE LISE KJAER Futurist and author of Te Trend Management Toolkit: A Practical Guide to the Future “We live in an age of hyperbole where ‘everything is about to change everything’, especially in the tech sector. Enter Nicklas Bergman, an extremely curious Swedish genius. Navigating the Techstorm is an elegant synthesis of the cur- rent megatrends and a straight-talking manual to help you cut through the blah-blah and create something useful, even impactful, in this exciting age of technological marvels.” MAGNUS LINDKVIST Futurologist and author of Te Attack of the Unexpected and When the Future Begins “Are you looking for an inspirational toolbox on emerging technologies? A catalyst to lif your company’s strategic discussion to a higher, more forward looking but still, operational and concrete level? Built on deep business and technology understanding? Ten, Navigating the Techstorm is the book for you! PIA IRELL Portfolio Development Director, Altor Equity Partners Published by LID Publishing Limited The Record Hall, Studio 204, 16-16a Baldwins Gardens, London EC1N 7RJ, UK 524 Broadway, 11th Floor, Suite 08-120, New York, NY 10012, US [email protected] www.lidpublishing.com A member of: www.businesspublishersroundtable.com All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without the prior written permission of both the copyright owners and the publisher of this book. © Nicklas Bergman, 2019 © LID Publishing Limited, 2019 First edition published in 2016 under the title Surviving the TechstormTM Printed in Great Britain by TJ International ISBN: 978-1-912555-17-8 Cover and page design: Matthew Renaudin NAVIGATING THE TECH STORM THE BUSINESS IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY BEYOND THE HYPE NICKLAS BERGMAN LONDON NEW YORK BOGOTA MADRID BARCELONA BUENOS AIRES MEXICO CITY MONTERREY SHANGHAI WWW.NAVIGATINGTHETECHSTORM.COM Have access to additional resources around the book to help you navigating through the Techstorm. DEDICATION To Anna, Valdemar, Inez and Beata, my strongest supporters and fercest critics… CONTENTS FOREWORD 8 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 12 MEGATRENDS AS DRIVERS OF CHANGE 14 Healthier and Older – Demography 20 Urgent but Hopeful – Environment 31 Both Physical and Mental – Globalization 41 Global Growth and Power Shif – Economics 50 BROADEN YOUR TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVE 56 Te History of Technology 58 Five Technology Waves 62 Te Tree Phases of a Technology Wave 71 Technology Waves and Economic Progress 75 Te Future of Technology 78 BANG – Te Sixth Technology Wave 87 Characteristics of a Paradigm Shif 98 CASE STUDIES 108 Rescuing the Music Industry – Spotify 110 Te Tabloid War – Expressen 115 Computational Power – Wolfram Research 120 Furnishing the World – IKEA 124 CREATE A NEW FRAMEWORK 130 Existing Strategy and Learning Models 138 Te Analyze – Assess – Adapt Model 143 Analyze Technologies 145 Assess Business Implications 161 Adapt to a New Reality 177 EXECUTE IN TIMES OF UNCERTAINTY 192 Leading in Times of Uncertainty 196 Innovating in Times of Uncertainty 205 Organizing in Times of Uncertainty 216 Be Sustainable in Times of Uncertainty 226 THE TECHSTORM 42 EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES 238 ENDNOTES 254 FURTHER READING 267 THE TECHSTORM PLAYLIST 276 ABOUT THE AUTHOR 278 FOREWORD Are we living, today, in a more exciting, danger- ous, dismaying, encouraging time than any other in history? We really do not know, but we do know that each new era and technological paradigm shif presents particular challenges and oppor- tunities. It is a constant struggle to keep up with the fast changing times in which we live, and it is only a minor comfort to realize that, during the 19th century, humankind already felt lef behind and overwhelmed by information overload, glo- balization and technological progress. One of the main reasons people react in this way is that tech- nological developments create opportunities and challenges, simultaneously this is questioning and challenging existing perceptions and behaviours. My grandmother, Selma Olsson, was born in 1900, and gave birth to 17 children between 1920 and 1944. Quite apart from that marvelous achieve- ment, by the time she passed away in 1992, she had also experienced close to a century of amazing technological development. Among other things, she witnessed the mainstream adoption of the tele- phone and electricity, the arrival of radio and televi- sion, new means of transportation with cars and air travel, the conquering of space, as well as the inven- tion of the computer. She lived her whole life in the countryside of the Swedish west coast, and although 8 My grandmother Selma Olsson, circa 1920. Credit: Private she was a curious and open minded person, she never really embraced all the new technolo- gies, instead being very content with her way of living. Te lives of my children, born at the begin- ning of the 21st century, could not be more diferent. We are entering an era in which technology will redefne who we are, and it is no longer just a question of what technology can do for us, but what should we allow technology to do. For more than 20 years I have worked as an entre- preneur, technology investor and futurist, focusing mostly on investments and business development in emerging markets, IT software and hardware, instrumentation, nanotechnol- ogy and new materials as well as new media art. 9 Currently, I have more than 10 direct and indirect technology investments. Te constant challenge is to choose a technological path and to time devel- opment and/or market introduction. Tis involves identifying key indicators that can be of help in these decision-making processes; ofen the com- panies or projects end up having to make major decisions based on very limited information. Over the past 10 years, I have spent a signifcant amount of time and energy trying to gain some deeper understanding of the decision-making processes under these complicated and uncertain circumstances. Tis book is an attempt to create a framework for how we relate to these times of enormous technological turbulence. By combining a historical perspective with technological curiosity and strategic business insight, it is possible to gain a clear view of both the opportunities and challenges coming out of the approaching techstorm. Enjoy the read, and please let me know if you have any comments or suggestions. Email me at [email protected] or visit www.naviga- tingthetechstorm.com for additional resources. Stockholm, November 2018 10 With fellow board members on a visit to the MC2 clean room at the Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg, Sweden. Credit: M Shafiq Kabir 11 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS A book is defnitely not a solo project and, although I am fully and solely responsible for everything in it, I have lots of people to thank for their help, insights, comments and guidance. First, thanks to Magnus Lindkvist for introduc- ing me to LID Publishing, and thanks to Martin Liu, Sara Taheri, Caroline Li, Niki Mullin, Amrita Brard and Tasneem Mahmoud at LID Publishing for taking care of me during this whole project. I really look forward to continuing working with you guys. Tanks to Niclas Josefsson for your endless support and for opening lots of doors. Tanks to Anders Bergkvist, Hugh Courtney, Niklas Hagberg, Pia Irell, Jakob Lindberg and David Stiernholm for bouncing ideas and being patient early in the pro- cess when I tried to visualize my ideas. Also thanks to Yury Boshyk, Scott Bourke, Brian David John- son, Anne-Lise Kjaer, Ramez Naam, Andreas Uhr and Amy Zalman for your input and giving me a diferent perspective on the future. Tanks to Lars-Johan Jarnheimer at IKEA, Mar- tin Lorentzon and Angela Woods at Spotify, Tomas Mattsson at Expressen and Stephen Wolfram at Wolfram Research for the interviews and help with case material. 12 Tanks to Dag Wetterberg and Pauline Riccius for helping me understand the publishing industry. Also, thanks to Valdemar, Inez and Beata for accepting that your dad has been physically and mentally unavailable for long periods of time. Finally, thanks to my wife Anna for her strong sup- port and for being a great discussion partner in all parts of the book project – you are the best! 13 MEGATRENDS AS DRIVERS OF CHANGE Over the next 50 years, society will need to respond to myriad issues relating to the proper use and con- sequences of unprecedented developments, and the insights these provide. With every technologi- cal advance mankind makes, there are potentially thousands of questions that will be generated, the majority concerning the appropriate uses and appli- cation of that technology and determining whether the benefts are worth the price the planet ends up paying. In the coming years and decades, it will no longer be a question of what technology can do for us, but rather what we should allow technology to do. It will be increasingly important that society, taking account of individual beliefs as well as joint values, discusses and agrees on our technological future. It’s an ongoing revolution, and we have to take control. In the coming years and decades, it will no longer be a question of what technology can do for us, but rather what we should allow technology to do.