ASSESSMENT REPORTS ON EMERGING ECOLOGICAL ISSUES IN CENTRAL ASIA Ashgabat Foreword In December 2006, five Central Asian countries established the Environment Convention as an important initiative for regional co- operation among the member states on sustainable development. The implementation of the Convention requires regular assessment of the state of the environment with a focus on emerging environ- mental issues. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is mandated to regularly assess and monitor major environmental challenges and trends. The rapid socio-economic growth coupled with increase in intensity and frequency of natural disasters have brought many challenging emerging issues to the forefront. The emerging environmental issues are a threat to food security, water security, energy security and sustainable development. This assessment report on the emerging environmental issues in Central Asia is timely and meaningful to the Central Asian region. The report, the first of its kind in Central Asia, identifies key emerging en- vironmental issues in Central Asia – Atmospheric Brown Cloud, Dust Storms, Glacial Melt, Integrated Chemical Management and the Use of Alternative Energy Resources. These issues have been ana- lyzed based on sound science by various experts, including scientists, academics and civil society representatives, to determine their impact on environment and population. Based on the analysis the report identifies the gaps in the existing system to address the emerging environmental issues and provide clear recommendations to fill the gaps. I believe that this report will bring emerging environmental issues to the attention of different stake- holders including the general public. This report will also provide a sound basis for decision makers in Central Asian countries in addressing the emerging environmental issues at the policy level. I hope that this report will help for a collective response through policy intervention. I would like to express my gratitude to the Governments of Central Asia and associated experts, espe- cially the Interstate Sustainable Development Commission and its Scientific Information Centre (SIC) for producing this report through a fruitful collaboration. Surendra Shrestha Regional Director and Representative United Nations Environment Programme for Asia and the Pacific Contents ATMOSPHERIC BROWN CLOUD INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF CHEMICALS INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................3 IN CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES ATMOSPHERIC BROWN CLOUD ........................................4 Priority Rationale .....................................................................25 What is atmospheric brown cloud? .................4 State of the problem in sub-region Effects of atmospheric brown cloud ................5 of Central Asia ...........................................................................26 Where the atmospheric А Ecological consequences brown clouds may be located .............................5 of chemicals’ production and utilization .... 26 Impacts of the atmospheric brown cloud B Current situation in the issues on the natural environment and society ......5 of integrated chemicals management ........35 DUST AND SALT TRANSPORT Indicators of integrated AND ATMOSPHERIC BROWN CLOUD chemicals management .................................................... 38 IN CENTRAL ASIA ........................................................................8 Requirements in resolution of issues Specific features of the dust and salt related to integrated chemicals management transport and atmospheric brown cloud .....8 on the sub-regional level ...................................................38 Sources of the dust and salt transport Concept of project proposals related to issues and atmospheric brown cloud .........................13 of integrated chemicals management on the sub-regional level ...................................................45 Measurements of optical and microphysical characteristics of the dust, Efficiency Evaluation .............................................................45 salt and atmospheric brown cloud by lidar method ..........................................................14 STABILITY OF MOUNTAIN LAKES PROGRAM OF MONITORING OF THE DUST IN CENTRAL ASIA. AND SALT TRANSPORT IMPACT RISKS & UNDERTAKING AND ATMOSPHERIC BROWN CLOUD OF MEASURES IN CENTRAL ASIA .....................................................................17 Monitoring program ...............................................18 Foreword ........................................................................................... 51 Measurable parameters ........................................18 General characteristic of natural conditions of the region .............................................................................. 52 Modelling .......................................................................19 Main socio-economic tendencies Assessment of Impacts ..........................................19 of the regional development ..........................................54 CONCLUSION ................................................................................. 20 Assessment of mountain lakes .......................................55 REFERENCES .................................................................................... 21 Mountain lakes as potential risk sources ..................59 APPENDIX ......................................................................................... 22 Mountain lakes as potential sources for portable water supply, irrigation, recreation and mountain tourism ................................61 Mountain lakes monitoring ..............................................62 RENEWABLE ENERGY Legal and institutional basis in the issues RESOURCES IN CENTRAL ASIA of studying mountain lakes ..............................................64 Introduction .............................................................................101 Mountain lakes nature and factors causing their formation ...................................................... 66 Problem Status (Energy Resources and Power Engineering Development Condition) ....102 Mountain lakes classification .............................66 Estimation of Current Energy Condition ..102 Climatic factors of mountain lakes formation ...........................................................71 Indicators of Estimated Problem .................................105 Impact of Geodynamic Processes National Strategies, Policies Implemented on Formation and Development in the Countries .....................................................................107 of Mountain Lakes ....................................................75 Needs Assessment in Problem Solution .................113 Impact of glaciation on mountain lakes Plan of Measures for the Nearest Outlook .............115 formation and development .............................75 Sequential Steps for Implementation Types of mountain lake dams ...........................76 of the Proposed Plan ..................................................................................115 Evaluation of the Mountain Lake Efficacy Assessment ............................................................118 Breakthrough Risk. Evaluation methods ..........................78 Problems of Impact of Traditional Power Medvezhiy glacier pulsation ..............................79 Engineering on Environment Models of Mountain Lake Breakthroughs. and Ecology Condition ........................................118 Estimation of the Breakthrough Environmental, social and economic Flow Rate ........................................................................80 prerequisites for acceleration of Identification of the damage area renewable energy sources utilization ........119 of the breakthrough flow .....................................87 Conclusion ................................................................................123 Breakthrough risk lakes of Kyrgyzstan ..........89 References ......................................................................................124 Measures undertaken to minimize Abbreviations ...............................................................................125 and to prevent a mountain lake breakthrough risk ....................................................................90 Potential threat of breakthrough at some lakes of Pamirs .........................................93 Conclusions and recommendations .......................... 94 References: ....................................................................................... 96 Foreword Recent researches suggest that there are a number This Report is the first of its nature undertaken in of environmental challenges emerge that will Central Asia. It identifies and suggests the ways of threaten the nature and well-being of the Central addressing sub-regional emerging environmental Asia population unless proactive and immediate issues, such as: Atmospheric Brown Cloud, Glacier actions are undertaken. Central Asia possesses sig- Lakes Outburst Floods, Renewable Energy and nificant amount of mineral resources, abundantly Integrated Chemical Management. These issues endowed with conventional energy wealth and well have been analyzed by various experts, including developed industries. Rising economies of the states scientists, academics and civil society representa- have been posing ever-growing