eSelection 81873 Armenian Dairy Development Impact Bond Terms of Reference 1. Background The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (“EBRD” or the “Bank”) and the United Nations Development Programme (“UNDP”) are partnering to structure a pilot development impact bond in Armenia (the “Project”). A development or social impact bond is an innovative financing tool that applies a private sector’s mind-set to the commissioning of certain services. Investors typically fund the delivery of such services and get repaid together with a financial return by an outcome funder (typically a government or a donor) upon successfully delivering the services and achieving pre-defined outcomes. The services are typically implemented by social sector organisations which investors support with working capital and management resource to achieve the best outcomes. The Project aims to tackle one of the key social challenges facing Armenia especially in its remoter regions namely the low productivity in the agriculture sector, and particularly in the dairy sector. This challenge has a particularly negative impact on the populations which are subsisting on small dairy farms and contributes to their poverty. The Project was initiated based on a feasibility study conducted by UNDP which explains why an impact bond structure is appropriate to tackle such challenge and outlines a possible intervention model. In this context, EBRD is seeking to engage a consultant (the “Consultant”) to get the Project to an ‘investment ready’ stage. This is expected to be achieved through two main steps: (i) reviewing UNDP’s feasibility study to validate the “impact bond case” and identify any potential gaps that need further work prior to structuring the Project; and (ii) preparing an investment proposal which will require amongst others to finalise the Project’s intervention model and identify the parties which will implement the Project (e.g. the service providers, the impact bond manager team, etc.) (all together, “the Assignment”). Please refer to Annex 1 for UNDP’s feasibility study. During the Assignment, UNDP will be responsible for coordination of works related to securing the outcome funds from donors. Such outcome funds will repay investors alongside a financial return upon the successful delivery of the Project and achieving pre-agreed results. It is expected that once completed, the Project would be replicated and scaled up to cover others regions of Armenia with outcome funds being provided amongst others by the Government of Armenia. About European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Background - EBRD is an international financial institution established in 1991 with the purpose to facilitate transition towards well-functioning and sustainable market systems in more than 30 countries. EBRD invests in projects (through debt and equity) where it expects to earn a market- based return (sound banking), where it does not crowd out private sources of financing (additionality) and where it expects to have a measurable impact (transition). EBRD and impact bonds - Development and social impact bonds are a new financing instrument for EBRD. In 2018, the Bank’s Board of Directors approved for the first time a pilot investment of up to USD 500,000 in favour of a development impact bond designed to address the issue of youth unemployment in the West Bank & Gaza. With the support of the Slovak Republic through the EBRD-Slovak Republic Cooperation Agreement, the Bank is planning to support the structuring of a development impact bond in Armenia on the back of the UNDP’s feasibility study prepared by UNDP. About United Nations Development Programme (“UNDP”) Background - UNDP works in around 170 countries. Its mains purpose is to help achieve the eradication of poverty, and the reduction of inequalities. UNDP helps countries to develop policies, leadership skills, partnering abilities, institutional capabilities and build resilience in order to sustain development results. UNDP and impact bonds - UNDP has recently partnered with the Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra to support the development of impact bonds and results-based financing mechanisms in Europe and CIS. These efforts have led to the design of six potential impact bonds, including the Project. 2. Objectives of the Assignment The main objective of the Assignment is to lead the Project by leveraging UNDP’s feasibility study and ensuring that it is (i) based on sound fundamentals (e.g. validate the impact bond thesis and establish a baseline); (ii) well designed (e,g, clear cohort, viable intervention model, strong service providers identified, clearly defined and measurable target results, etc.); and (iii) ready to be marketed to private investors and subsequently launched (e.g. project structure, investment report, etc.). 3. Scope of work The Consultant’s tasks and responsibilities shall encompass, but will not be limited to, the following: 1. Review and analysis of UNDP’s feasibility study • Reviewing the proposal and assessing how it fits in the Armenian agribusiness contexts • Commenting on the rationale of the proposal including amongst others the theory of change underlying the Project, the impact thesis and the investment thesis • Commenting on the substance of UNDP’s feasibility study including amongst others the overall Project structure, the proposed intervention model, the proposed target volumes and success rates • Completing a cost/benefit or benchmarking analysis (vs. other projects implemented to tackle the same challenge) to assess a baseline against which the Project’s targets can be compared • Providing conclusive feedback on UNDP’s feasibility study and outlining any potential gaps that may need further work prior to Phase 2 below. 2. Preparing the investment proposal • Finalising the Project’s intervention model • Identifying a pipeline of potential service providers in charge of implementing the Project • Proposing the structure of the team that will act as the Project’s manager during its implementation phase (the “Project’s Management Team”) • Identifying potential candidates for the key members of the Project’s Management Team • Proposing the corporate governance for the Project • Finalising the outcome metrics and proposing outcome payment model (e.g. based on rate card or other methods as appropriate) • Preparing the Project’s financial model and proposed scenario analysis • Proposing a verification methodology to ensure that the Project’s results are effectively achieved and in compliance with the criteria associated with such results • Preparing an investment report • Propose a list of potential investors The Consultant shall collaborate with UNDP throughout the Assignment as follows: • UNDP will provide relevant documents and information to support the Assignment • The Consultant will be able to leverage UNDP’s local network of contacts and sectorial expertise • The Consultant will share relevant analysis with UNDP as required • The Consultant will ensure the proposed interventions comply with UNDP and EBRD Environmental and Social policies, particularly with regard to animal welfare, use of antibiotics and biosafety 4. Implementation Arrangements The Consultant shall report to the SME Finance and Development team (the “EBRD Team”). The EBRD Team is responsible for setting the deliverables for the Consultant, as well as ensuring the implementation of the deliverables by the Consultant. The Consultant will maintain an ongoing communication with the EBRD Team throughout the Assignment. Deliverables will be considered as final only once approved by EBRD as being of an adequate quality. If certain conditions change beyond the control of the Consultant which impact preparation of the deliverables, deadlines may be reconsidered by EBRD. The Consultant is expected to remain in regular contact with the Project Team and provide a monthly update on activities related to the Assignment. Such updates will take place as conference calls or in person, depending on required arrangements. UNDP will be invited to attend such update meetings as observer. Annex 1 Armenia Dairy Impact Bond Feasibility Report Table of Contents Executive Summary ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 1. CONTEXT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------2 1.1. Situational Analysis ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 1.2. The Social Challenge ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2 1.3. Evidence and Types of Intervention – Theory of Change --------------------------------------------------- 3 1.4. Linking the SIB to the SDGs ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 2. SELECTION CRITERIA---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6 2.1. Identifying the geographical area ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 2.2. Identifying the cohort------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7 2.3. Identifying Service Provider(s) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 3. OUTCOME METRICS, MEASUREMENT AND DATA SOURCES-------------------------------------9 3.1. Metrics --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 3.2.