Modeling the potential of forestation for carbon storage in Southern Africa ___________________________________________________ Shakirudeen Lawal – LWLSHA002 Towards a Master of Science specializing in Climate Change and Sustainable Development, University of Cape Town Supervisor: Dr. Babatunde J. Abiodun Minor dissertation presented for the approval of Senate in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the M.Sc. specializing in Climate Change and Sustainable Development in approved courses and a minor dissertation. I hereby declare that I have read and understood the regulations governing the submission of the M.Sc. specializing in Climate Change and Sustainable Development dissertations, including those relating to length and plagiarism, as contained in the rules of this University, and that this minor dissertation conforms to those regulations. Signature: Date: ii Abstract The present study examines the carbon storage potential of forestation over southern Africa with focus on South Africa, Botswana and Namibia; to investigate how some local species may sequester carbon and thereby provide economic returns to these nations and landowners through the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM). First, this study used the IPCC Tier 2 method to calculate the carbon stored and emitted from forestlands in these three southern Africa countries. The potential net and gross carbon storage values of these forestlands were then estimated using the emissions-storage statistical equations. Second, the CO2FIX V3.1 model which is an IPCC Tier 3 method was used to simulate the carbon storage potential of Acacia karoo, Eucalyptus grandis, E. smithii, E. nitens, Portulacaria afra, Searsia pendulina, Combretum apiculatum and Pinus radiate over a 30-year period. The results show that carbon dioxide (CO2eq) emissions from forestlands were highest in Botswana from 1990-2000 (8000 CO2eq) and 2005-2010 (5800 CO2eq) while Namibia recorded the lowest emissions (2900 CO2eq) in this period. Among the species used for simulations in the CO2FIX model, A. karoo sequestered the highest amount of carbon in South Africa, 138.06 MgC/ha (506.23 MgCO2eq/ha and Euro 2328.65/ha), in Botswana 138.71/ha MgC (508.59 MgCO2eq/ha and Euro 2339.51/ha) and in Namibia, 137.96 MgC/ha (505.59 MgCO2eq/ha and Euro 2326.92/ha) and thus, gave the highest economic value while P. afra has the least potential for carbon storage in the region, sequestering 5% of what A. karoo sequesters although it also showed some promising abilities for carbon storage. The simulations further reveal that a mixed plantation which comprises all these indigenous and exotic species sequestered much more carbon than that of A. karoo by a factor of 4.5 in South Africa (615.59 MgC/ha), 4.6 in Botswana (646.79 MgC/ha) and 5.0 in Namibia (709.99 MgC/ha) and therefore, gave far more economic value (5x higher) than the sum all the monoculture. Key words: Carbon capture and storage, Forestation, Clean Development Mechanism, Afforestation iii Plagiarism Declaration Name: Shakirudeen Lawal Student Number: LWLSHA002 Course: EGS5029H Declaration 1. I know that plagiarism is wrong. Plagiarism is to use another’s work and pretend that it is one’s own. 2. I have used the Harvard convention for citation and referencing. Each contribution and quotation in this dissertation from the works of other people has been attributed and has been cited and referenced. 3. This dissertation is my own work. 4. I have not allowed, and will not allow, anyone to copy this work with the intention of passing it off as his or her own. January 31, 2014 Shakirudeen Lawal iv Dedication This work is dedicated to my beloved mother – Mrs. Silifat Ayo Lawal, my siblings – Habib Lawal, Shakirat Lawal and Baasit Lawal, my cousin- Kashiro Rabiu and my fiancé- Tawakaltu Atinuke Adeleye. v Acknowledgements First and foremost, I thank Almighty Allah who has kept me alive till this day and for making this journey a reality. The success of this work calls for appropriate recognition of those that made diverse and great contributions towards this end. Paramount among who is my supervisor, Dr. Babatunde J. Abiodun who contributed immeasurably and wholesomely to the success of this study. I am eternally grateful for your financial as well as moral support; and most importantly your outstanding tutelage in the course of this work. In the same vein, I appreciate the invaluable role of Dr. Bradley Rink as course convener who was not only a guardian but also a friend. Furthermore, I am also appreciative of the kind gestures I received from Professor Mark New, who despite his busy schedule always made time available to assist me. The large hearted and wholesome support which I received from the staff and students of the Climate System Analysis Group (among whom are Professor Bruce Hewitson, Sharon Bernard and Dr Joseph Daron) has also made this study worthwhile. To the all the staff of the African Climate and Development Initiative, particularly, Dr. Muhammad Rahiz, I am grateful for your support and accommodation. I am in no small measure very grateful to my father, Professor Tola Atinmo for his financial and all-rounded support. This might not have been possible without my two best friends – Muideen Adebayo and Oscar Uzoma who encouraged me in every way to undertake this program. Friends in need are friends indeed. You will forever remain my friends and brother and I pray that I am able to fully repay your kindness and selflessness. Similarly, the priceless assistance of Messrs Victor Etokwu, Kazeem Durodoye, Tunde Ezichi, Chief John Edozien, Barrister Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), Messrs. Ayo Akinmade, Victor Eka, Ehima Abiodun, Drs. Gbolahan Elias (SAN), Yemi Ogunbiyi and Sola Adeduntan are highly appreciated. I am also grateful to Drs. Jimoh Saka, Ajewole Opeyemi and Yusuf Sulaimon for the encouragement. A million thanks to all my Classmates, 2013/2014 ACDI Mphil/M.Sc. students for their indulgence and patience while we did this program. I cannot but acknowledge the conducive environment engendered by the cooperation and love from all members of staff of the vi Department of Environmental and Geographical Science- among whom are Professor Mike Meadows (Head of Department), Shahieda Samsodien, Sharon Adams - just to mention a few, for giving me the opportunity to be a part of this department. In like manner, I acknowledge greatly with joy camaraderie of my people: Temitope Egbeleye, AbdulRasheed Adeyemi, Goodnews, Daniel Chinenye Kalu, all members of the Muslim Students Society of Nigeria (MSSN) and the Sigma Club University of Ibadan, Nigeria. My sincere appreciation also goes to the editors of this work – Kamoru Lawal, Myra Naik and Steve Arowolo. The likes of Messrs. AbdRamon Dauda, Rildwan Olatoyinbo and Adepeju Salu rendered me invaluable support. Once again, to my supervisor, Dr Babatunde J. Abiodun who played the role of an excellent teacher in all areas, I am forever indebted. I am forever grateful to all my lecturers from various departments and institutions who at one time or the other have taught and imparted knowledge into me here in UCT or beyond. I am grateful to several others, who for one reason or the other cannot be mentioned or acknowledged appropriately. To my siblings, Habib Lawal, Shakirat Lawal, Baasit Lawal and cousin Kashiro Rabiu, I specially acknowledge your support, perseverance, patience and trust. You are the most wonderful brothers and sister; To my fiancé – Atinuke Adeleye, I say thank you for your love. I am lucky to have you all. My deepest gratitude goes to my mother – Silifat Ayo Lawal. Shakirudeen Abimbola, Lawal January, 2014 vii List of Figures Figure 1a Acacia karoo...............................................................................................................5 Figure 1b Eucalyptus nitens……………………………………………………………………6 Figure 1c Eucalyptus smithii…………………………………………………………………...6 Figure 1d Eucalyptus grandis …………………………………………………………………7 Figure 1e Pinus radiate………………………………………………………………………...7 Figure 1f Combretum apiculatum …………………………………………………………......8 Figure 1g Searsia pendulina…………………………………………………………………………….8 Figure 1h Portulacaria afra…………………………………………………………………….9 Figure 2 Southern African domain showing the topography and land cover pattern over the region…………………………………………………………………………………………...19 Figure 3 Stored carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents in forestlands over 20 years in Botswana, Namibia and South Africa……………………………………………………………………...30 Figure 4 The long term average carbon stock (percentage) in soil and biomass for each of the monoculture and mixed plantation……………………………………………………………...36 Figure 5 The long term average carbon stock (MgC) in soil and biomass for each of the monoculture and mixed plant…………………………………………………………………...37 Figure 6 Total carbon stock (MgC) sequestered for the mixed plantation……………………...38 Figure 7 Advancing means of the net biomass carbon (MgC) balance of the mixed plantation..40 Figure 8 Temporal development of carbon stock (MgC) in the biomass component of the mixed plantation………………………………………………………………………………………..41 Figure 9 Advancing means of the net soil carbon balance of the mixed plantation: soil cohorts Mgc/ha ………………………………………………………………………………………….43 viii Figure 10 Temporal development of the carbon stock (MgC) in the soil component of the mixed plantation………………………………………………………………………………………..44 ix List of Tables Table 1 The dynamics of Rural vulnerability to Global change: Incidence of drought and cereal production in southern Africa…………………………………………………………………11 Table 2 Carbon stock in a tree…………………………………………………………………14