7 Volume 7.8.2 Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment TR010021 APFP Regulation 5(2)(q) Revision 0 Planning Act 2008 Infrastructure Planning (Applications: Prescribed Forms and Procedure) Regulations 2009 April 2016 Page 1 of 197 Silvertown Tunnel Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment Document Reference: 7.8.2 THIS PAGE HAS INTENTIONALLY BEEN LEFT BLANK Page 2 of 197 Silvertown Tunnel Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment Document Reference: 7.8.2 Silvertown Tunnel Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment 7.8.2 Planning Act 2008 Infrastructure Planning The Infrastructure Planning (Applications: Prescribed Forms and Procedure) Regulations 2009 Document Reference: 7.8.2 Internal Code: ST150030-PLN-ZZZ-ZZ-DSD-ZZ-0124 Regulation Number: 5(2)(q) Author: Transport for London Rev. Date Approved By Signature Description 0 29/04/2016 David Rowe (TfL For DCO Lead Sponsor) Application Page 3 of 197 Silvertown Tunnel Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment Document Reference: 7.8.2 Contents List of Abbreviations .............................................................................................. 11 Glossary of Terms .................................................................................................. 21 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 35 1.1 Purpose of the report .................................................................................. 35 1.2 London’s economic potential ....................................................................... 35 1.3 East London’s economic potential ............................................................... 36 1.4 Transport problems at the Blackwall crossing and their economic consequences ...................................................................................................... 37 1.5 The Silvertown Tunnel Scheme .................................................................. 39 1.6 Structure of the report ................................................................................. 39 2. METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................ 41 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 41 2.2 Scenarios .................................................................................................... 42 2.3 Regeneration area definition ....................................................................... 43 3. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRANSPORT AND DEVELOPMENT ........... 47 3.1 Summary ..................................................................................................... 47 3.2 Introduction ................................................................................................. 48 3.3 Relationship between transport improvements and economic growth ........ 48 3.4 Case studies – river crossings generally ..................................................... 52 3.5 Case study – London Docklands ................................................................. 53 3.6 Case study – Tyne Tunnel .......................................................................... 53 4. BASELINE SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND LAND USE CONDITIONS .............. 59 4.1 Summary ..................................................................................................... 59 4.2 Introduction ................................................................................................. 60 4.3 Population and demand for housing ............................................................ 60 4.4 Employment growth .................................................................................... 64 4.5 Labour market profile .................................................................................. 69 4.6 Car ownership ............................................................................................. 72 Page 4 of 197 Silvertown Tunnel Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment Document Reference: 7.8.2 5. BARRIERS AND CONSTRAINTS TO ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND GROWTH ................................................................................................................. 74 5.1 Summary ..................................................................................................... 74 5.2 Introduction ................................................................................................. 74 5.3 Importance of roads to London ................................................................... 75 5.4 Impact of congestion ................................................................................... 75 5.5 Effects on the freight industry ...................................................................... 76 5.6 Journey time reliability issues ...................................................................... 77 5.7 Access to labour market .............................................................................. 77 5.8 Access to customers and suppliers ............................................................. 82 5.9 Summary of transport constraints ............................................................... 83 5.10 Impacts of transport constraints on business location decisions and property markets ................................................................................................................ 83 5.11 Non-transport constraints to economic activity ............................................ 85 6. DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL .................................................................... 89 6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 89 6.2 Development projections and capacity ........................................................ 89 6.3 Developer views of the impact of the Scheme on development sites .......... 94 7. SCHEME IMPACTS .................................................................................... 97 7.1 Summary ..................................................................................................... 97 7.2 Introduction ................................................................................................. 98 7.3 Congestion .................................................................................................. 99 7.4 Reliability ..................................................................................................... 99 7.5 Economic impact of improvements to congestion and reliability ............... 100 7.6 Public transport links ................................................................................. 101 7.7 Change in cross-river people movements ................................................. 103 7.8 Summary of impacts on accessibility ........................................................ 106 7.9 Job creation facilitated by the Scheme ...................................................... 117 7.10 Changes in the number of Regeneration Area residents employed as a result of the Scheme .......................................................................................... 120 Page 5 of 197 Silvertown Tunnel Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment Document Reference: 7.8.2 7.11 The potential for increased levels of development facilitated by the Scheme 122 Appendix A. ACCESSIBILITY ANALYSIS ....................................................... 125 Figure A.1: Change in number of jobs accessible from the regeneration area by car, business users, generalised time, AM peak ................................................ 128 Appendix B. LONDON BOROUGH PROFILES ............................................... 156 Appendix C. LAND-USE AND TRANSPORT INTERACTION MODELLING OVERVIEW 182 Page 6 of 197 Silvertown Tunnel Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment Document Reference: 7.8.2 List of Tables Table 3-1: Commuting flows by mode into Isle of Dogs ........................................... 53 Table 3-2: Number of businesses in Tyneside compared with North East ............... 56 Table 3-3: Employment rate (%) in Tyneside compared with North East ................. 57 Table 3-4: Unemployment rate (%) in Tyneside compared with North East ............. 57 Table 4-1: Annual housing targets, 2015-2025 ........................................................ 63 Table 4-2: House prices 2005 - 2014 ....................................................................... 63 Table 4-3: Workplace jobs, 2013 and growth over decade ...................................... 64 Table 4-4: Change in office-serving employment sectors 2003-2013 ...................... 65 Table 4-5: Change in road dependent employment sectors 2003-2013 ................... 66 Table 4-6 Employment growth in the Regeneration Area ......................................... 67 Table 4-7: GLA employment projection for Greater London (2011-2036), sectors ... 68 Table 4-8: Employment by sector by borough (%) – 2013 ....................................... 69 Table 4-9: Claimant count, change 2006-2015 ........................................................ 70 Table 4-10: NVQs by borough and change between 2005 and 2014 (1) ................. 71 Table 4-11: NVQs by borough and change between 2005 and 2014 (2) ................. 72 Table 4-12: Car ownership by borough .................................................................... 72 Table 5-1: Retail centre catchment sizes, average accessible population ‘000s within 45 minute drive time