Covering the Bases Reassessing U.S. Military Deployments in Turkey After the July 2016 Attempted Coup d’État John Cappello, Patrick Megahan, John Hannah, and Jonathan Schanzer Foreword by Ambassador Eric Edelman August 2016 FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES FOUNDATION Covering the Bases Reassessing U.S. Military Deployments in Turkey After the July 2016 Attempted Coup d’État John Cappello Patrick Megahan John Hannah Jonathan Schanzer Foreword by Ambassador Eric Edelman August 2016 FDD PRESS A division of the FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES Washington, DC Covering the Bases Table of Contents Foreword ............................................................................................................................5 Introduction .......................................................................................................................7 History of U.S.-Turkish Security Ties .................................................................................7 U.S. and NATO Assets Currently in Turkey .....................................................................10 Mounting Stresses in U.S.-Turkish Relations ...................................................................14 Assessing Challenges and Opportunities .........................................................................21 RAF Akrotiri, Cyprus .......................................................................................................21 Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan .......................................................................................23 Bases in Iraq .....................................................................................................................25 Irbil International Airport, Iraqi Kurdistan .....................................................................26 Bashur Airfield, Iraqi Kurdistan .......................................................................................27 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................28 Page 3 Covering the Bases Foreword role in U.S. military planning and in maintaining the “northern tier” strategy of blocking Soviet access to the The modern Republic of Turkey remains one of the eastern Mediterranean and Persian Gulf. “pivotal” states in the international system. The country’s role as a U.S. treaty ally sitting astride the division between When the Cold War ended, some analysts questioned Europe and the Middle East, as a Black Sea littoral state the continuing utility of Incirlik and the ongoing U.S. bordering on a revanchist Russia, and an important presence, but the first Gulf War quickly brought that energy hub insures that it will remain a crucial player. debate to an end. President Turgut Ozal’s courageous Since the 9/11 attacks, the U.S.-Turkish relationship has decision, overruling his then chief of defense, to join the been on a rollercoaster ride of highs and lows. U.S.-led coalition to reverse Saddam Hussein’s aggression against Kuwait ushered in an era of very close U.S.- While bumpy patches have been more the norm lately, Turkish collaboration. By the end of the decade, President there have been eras of warm ties. The EU decision to open Bill Clinton proclaimed a U.S.-Turkish “strategic accession talks with Turkey in December 2004 – a long- partnership” in his speech to the Turkish Grand National time objective of U.S. national security policy since the Assembly. Today, in the wake of the failed coup attempt 1960s – stands out in that regard (and it is no coincidence of July 15, 2016, those words seem increasingly hollow. that U.S. standing among the Turkish public, as measured in the Pew Charitable Trust’s poll, was at its highest then). Even before the botched effort by elements of the More often than not, however, the relationship has been military to overthrow the AKP government, Turkey marked by serious differences over the political future of was on a domestic trajectory marked by increasing Iraq (and the best way to deal with the PKK challenge authoritarianism and troubling government relationships to Turkey emanating from the Kurdish north), how to with dangerous Islamist groups. In the wake of the coup, deal with a nuclearizing Iran, and most acutely, the roiling a rising tide of officially sanctioned and, in some cases, conflict in Syria and the rise of the Islamic State (IS). It government-instigated anti-Americanism, coupled with is an unfortunate fact that on occasion these differences the hollowing out of the Turkish military and continuing have given rise to outbursts of popular anti-Americanism terrorist attacks by both Kurdish and Islamist extremists, in the often febrile Turkish media. have once again raised the question of the future utility of America’s continued presence at Incirlik. Even before 9/11, the rise of the Islamist-oriented Justice and Development Party (AKP), and the Although I join most observers in continuing to believe convulsions that followed in the Middle East, the that the U.S.-Turkish relationship is crucial and that U.S.-Turkish relationship had been marked by ups Incirlik’s role is particularly important in the context of and downs. The one steady element in the relationship the anti-IS struggle, it is clearly time to face the possibility always appeared to be the military-to-military ties that that the U.S. may, against its will, be forced to leave. This bound the two countries together. Turkey had the would be a serious discontinuity in the NATO alliance second largest military establishment in NATO, one and the U.S.-Turkish relationship, and it ought not to be of the largest International Military Education and approached in a “fit of absence of mind.” Training (IMET) programs in the world, and important This meticulous Foundation for Defense of Democracies bases near the Soviet Union that made it an important study provides the broader context for considering the military partner for the United States during the Cold prospects for Incirlik’s future. It not only charts the War. In particular, for over 70 years, the Incirlik Air history of the base’s role and our military-to-military ties, Base near Adana in southeastern Turkey played a vital Page 5 Covering the Bases but it lays out the serious issues that would follow from a U.S. exit, and it also canvasses the alternatives. The best outcome would clearly be for the U.S. to remain in Incirlik for reasons that include the effectiveness of the campaign against IS and the ongoing need for U.S. extended nuclear deterrence in Europe. Yet, suggesting that the U.S. has alternatives may serve an important purpose. It can help Turkish officials recognize the importance of the U.S. connection to Turkey. It might even help preserve it. Eric S. Edelman Senior Advisor, Foundation for Defense of Democracies Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Page 6 Covering the Bases Introduction endeavored to address these issues in muted tones. Indeed, access to Turkish facilities have been vital for The Republic of Turkey has been a reliable staging the war against IS and will likely remain so for future point for U.S. forces for more than six decades. Turkish crises. Keeping these installations open and secure are bases have historically provided the U.S. military easy the top priority.1 access to multiple theaters without having to build new infrastructure or forge new agreements. Today, American But continued cooperation does not mean the forces in Turkey are targeting the Islamic State (IS) in continuation of the status quo. In the wake of the coup, Syria and Iraq, manning key components of the European as the Turkish government engages in an extensive integrated missile defense system, providing logistics for purge of domestic foes (both real and imagined), regional operations, and deterring a resurgent Russia. Turkey is unstable and unpredictable. It is now essential to determine if the estimated 3,000 U.S. servicemen However, the attempted coup of July 2016 and the or the sensitive U.S. hardware based in Turkey are in war in Syria have revealed growing fractures in the any way jeopardized. In short, an assessment is needed U.S.-Turkish security relationship. Statements by to examine alternative basing options in the eastern Turkish officials in the wake of the coup suggesting that Mediterranean. Such contingency planning is crucial American officials were behind the failed putsch indicate to protect U.S. interests. But it should not supplant or that trust between the two countries is plummeting. encumber ongoing efforts to restore Turkish-American More worrisome, these statements are now inciting anti- ties to their previous levels of trust. American sentiment across Turkey. Turkey’s decision to shut down U.S. operations against IS in the immediate History of aftermath of the coup, albeit temporarily, was also cause for alarm, even if it was a precautionary measure. U.S.-Turkish Security Ties Even before the failed coup, tensions between the ruling Turkey’s security partnership with the U.S. began with Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by President the Cold War, when the two allies worked closely Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the West were on the rise. together to contain Soviet expansion. Cooperation with At home, Erdogan has been transforming Turkey into a Washington was natural given the increasing threat from more authoritarian and Islamist state, undermining the Moscow, while Turkey’s pro-Western, burgeoning