·:: ··· ··· ··· European Union ··· ··· ··· Τ Regional policy ······ •s and cohesion ······ · : ·! • · · ·! • · · ··· ·! ·· ·* ·· • · ·· *· ······ ·ζ· 'opment studies ■ Development prospects of the central Mediterranean, ■ , . .' » . regions (MezzOgiorno­Greece) • • European Gommission European Union Regional policy and cohesion Regional development studies Development prospects of the central Mediterranean regions (Mezzogiorno-Greece) European Commission Already published in the series Regional development studies 01 — Demographic evolution in European regions (Demeter 2015). 02 — Socioeconomic situation and development of the regions in the neighbouring countries of the Community in Central and Eastern Europe. 03 — Les politiques régionales dans l'opinion publique. 04 — Urbanization and the functions of cities in the European Community. 05 — The economic and social impact of reductions in defence spending and military forces on the regions of the Community. 06 — New location factors for mobile investment in Europe. 07 — Trade and foreign investment in the Community regions: the impact of economic reform in Central and Eastern Europe. 08 — Estudio prospectivo de las regiones atlánticas. Europa 2000. Study of prospects in the Atlantic regions. Europe 2000. Étude prospective des régions atlantiques. Europe 2000. Estudio prospectivo de las regiones atlántcas. Europa 2000. 09 — Financial engineering techniques applying to regions eligible under Objectives 1, 2 and 5b. 10 — Interregional and cross-border cooperation in Europe. 11 — Estudio prospectivo de las regiones del Mediterráneo Oeste. Évolution prospective des régions de la Méditerranée-Ouest. Evoluzione delle prospettive delle regioni del Mediterraneo occidentale. 12 — Valeur ajoutée et ingénierie du développement local. 14 — Development prospects of the central Mediterranean regions (Mezzogiorno-Greece). 18 — The prospective development of the northern seaboard. 20 — Evolución prospectiva de las regiones interiores (y de los espacios rurales de baja densidad de población en la Comunidad). Évolution prospective des régions intérieures (et des espaces ruraux de faible densité de population de la Communauté). 24 — Cohesion and the development challenge facing the lagging regions. 25 — In den Regionen für die Regionen Europas / Über die Aneignung eines neuen gewerk• schaftlichen Arbeitsfeldes. Forthcoming publications in this series 13 — Impact of the development of the Nordic countries on regional development and spatial organization in the Community. 15 — The spatial consequences of the integration of the new German Länder into the Community. 16 — The impact of the development of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe on the Community territory. 17 — Étude prospective des régions de l'arc alpin et périalpin. Studio delle prospettive delle regioni dell'Arco alpino e prealpino. 19 — L'impact sur le développement régional et l'aménagement de l'espace communautaire des pays du sud et de l'est méditerranéens (PSEM). 21 — The regional impact of the Channel Tunnel throughout the Community. 22 — The perspective development of the central and capital cities and regions. 23 — Guide to planning tourism development in regional and local economies. Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1995 ISBN 92-826-8789-9 © ECSC-EC-EAEC, Brussels · Luxembourg, 1995 Reproduction is authorized, except for commercial purposes, provided the source is acknowledged Printed in Germany Preface Each year, the Directorate-General for Regional Policy and Cohesion of the European Commission launches a number of studies in the field of regional policy and regional planning. These studies mainly aim at providing a basis for policy formulation internally, as well as the preparation of programmes and initiatives and a basis for analysing the impact of current or planned activities. The most interesting or innovative of these are published in a series entitled Regional development studies. With this series, the Directorate-General hopes to stimulate discussion and action in a wider sphere on the research results received. The publication of the studies is addressed to politicians and decision-makers at European, regional and local level, as well as to academics and experts in the broad fields of issues covered. It is hoped that by publicizing research results the Commission will enrich and stimulate public debate and promote a further exchange of knowledge and opinions on the issues which are considered important for the economic and social cohesion of the Union and therefore for the future of Europe. Readers should bear in mind that the study reports do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Commission but first and foremost express the opinion of those responsible for carrying out the study. Contents Part I — Summaries 15 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 15 RESUME 35 Part II — Analysis 57 1. DEMOGRAPHY AND THE LABOUR FORCE 57 1.1. Introduction 57 1.2. Demography 57 1.2.1. Population trends through the 1970s 57 1.2.2. The new demographic phenomena of the 1980s 57 1.2.2.1. The demographic balance in the central Mediterranean area 57 1.2.2.2. Rising immigration pressure over the 1980s 60 1.2.3. Towards 2000: demographic developments unfolding 62 1.2.3.1. Population ageing 62 1.2.3.2. Population in 2020: ageing continues without significant population growth 63 1.2.3.3. The social, economic and cultural impact of population ageing 63 1.2.3.4. Projecting migratory flows: increasing immigration 64 1.3. The labour-market 66 1.3.1. Characteristics of the central Mediterranean labour-market 66 1.3.2. Participation of women in the labourforce 67 1.3.3. Dynamics of the labour-market into the 1990s 67 1.3.3.1. Growth of labour supply 67 1.3.3.2. Youth employment: low participation 68 1.3.3.3. Unemployment: the biggest unsolved problem in the central Mediterranean 69 1.3.4. The likelihood of rising unemployment 70 1.3.5. The regional labour-market 71 1.4. Labour-market development: the big four variables 72 1.5. Policy conclusions and recommendations 73 Contents 2. SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT 75 2.1. The pattern of growth 75 2.1.1. Sectoral imbalance in the central Meciterranean area 75 2.1.2. The crucial weakness of the industrial sector 76 2.1.3. The anomalous growth of the tertiary sector 79 2.1.4. The heavy hand of inefficient State intervention 80 2.1.5. Into the 1990s: a continuation of current trends would lead to increasing marginalization 81 2.2. Sectoral analysis 82 2.2.1. Introduction 82 2.2.1.1. The central Mediterranean economy 82 2.2.1.2. The regional economy: increasing divergence between dynamic and underdeveloped areas 88 2.2.2. Agriculture 89 2.2.2.1. Utilization of agricultural terrain 89 2.2.2.2. The structural evolution of agriculture: a slow process 89 2.2.2.3. The composition of agricultural production in the central Mediterranean 93 2.2.2.4. Farm size: the excessive number of smallholdings limits agricultural restructuring 94 2.2.2.5. Regional agricultural characteristics 94 2.2.2.5.1. The Mezzogiorno 94 2.2.2.5.2. Greece 94 2.2.2.6. Transformation of the agricultural system: low integration with industry 94 2.2.2.7. The agricultural sector between abandonment and restructuring 95 2.2.3. Trade 96 2.2.3.1. A permanent imbalance 96 2.2.3.2. Financing the trade deficit 97 2.2.3.3. Low foreign trade exposure 97 2.2.3.4. Weak specialization 97 2.2.3.5. Trading partners: a high share of extra-EC trade in Sicily 98 2.2.4. Tourism 99 2.2.4.1. Supply of tourist facilities: a limited and unplanned expansion 99 2.2.4.2. Deteriorating competitiveness 101 2.2.4.3. The predominance of non-registered tourist accommodation 102 2.2.4.4. High spatial concentration of tourist facilities 103 2.2.4.5. The tourism resource: a potential unexploited 103 2.2.5. Small and medium-sized enterprises 104 2.2.5.1. The inflexible characteristics of organization among small firms 104 2.2.5.2. Spatial distribution of activity 105 2.2.5.2.1. The Mezzogiorno 105 2.2.5.2.2. Greece 106 2.2.5.3. 'Problematic enterprises', small-scale production, and the parallel economy In Greece 107 2.3. Recent policies 108 2.3.1. Support policies for the Mezzogiorno regions 108 2.3.1.1. Redistribution effects of fiscal policies 108 2.3.1.2. The 'Intervento straordinario' for the Mezzogiorno 108 2.3.1.3. Industrial policies in the Mezzogiorno 109 2.3.1.4. The policies of the regions of the Mezzogiorno 111 Development prospects of the central Mediterranean regions 2.3.1.5. EC policies in the Mezzogiorno 112 2.3.2. Greece 113 2.3.2.1. Productivity stagnation 113 2.3.2.2. Government investment policy and the Community support framework (CSF) 113 2.4. Policy conclusions and recommendations 115 2.4.1. Introduction 115 2.4.2. Community policy 115 2.4.3. National policy 116 2.4.4. Local policy 117 Statistical annex 119 3. INFRASTRUCTURE 129 3.1. Existing state of development 129 3.2. Prospective developments of infrastructure 130 3.3. Transport 130 3.3.1. Passenger and freight transport patterns 131 3.3.2. Road transportation 133 3.3.3. Rail transportation 135 3.3.4. Sea transportation 137 3.3.4.1. Harbour planning 140 3.3.4.2. Short-term interventions (Greece) 140 3.3.4.3. The recreational harbour system 140 3.3.5. Air transportation 141 3.3.6. Spatial implications of transport 142 3.3.6.1. Spatial implications of planned road and rail networks 144 3.4. Telecommunications and information network 144 3.4.1. Programmes in progress (the Mezzogiorno) 145 3.4.2. Programmes planned (the Mezzogiorno) 145 3.4.3. Programmes in progress (Greece) 145 3.4.4. Programmes planned (Greece) 146 3.5.