EDITED BY i AGNIESZKA PIKULICKA-WILCZEWSKA & RICHARD SAKWA Ukraine and Russia People, Politics, Propaganda and Perspectives This e-book is provided without charge via free download by E-International Relations (www.E-IR.info). It is not permitted to be sold in electronic format under any circumstances. If you enjoy our free e-books, please consider leaving a small donation to allow us to continue investing in open access publications: http://www.e-ir.info/about/donate/ i Ukraine and Russia People, Politics, Propaganda and Perspectives EDITED BY AGNIESZKA PIKULICKA-WILCZEWSKA & RICHARD SAKWA ii E-International Relations www.E-IR.info Bristol, England First published 2015 New version 2016 ISBN 978-1-910814-14-7 (Paperback) ISBN 978-1-910814-00-0 (e-book) This book is published under a Creative Commons CC BY-NC 4.0 license. 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E-IR is run by a registered non-profit organisation based in Bristol, England and staffed with an all-volunteer team of students and scholars. iv Abstract The intense and dangerous turmoil provoked by the breakdown in Russo- Ukrainian relations has escalated into a crisis that now afflicts both European and global affairs. Since the beginning of the confrontation, a lot has been written about its root causes, the motivations of the main actors, and possible scenarios for the future. However, few have looked at what came to be called the ‘Ukraine crisis’ from the point of view of Russo-Ukrainian relations, and grasped the perspectives of various groups involved, as well as the discursive processes that have contributed to the developments in and interpretations of the conflict. --- Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska is Blogs Editor with E-International Relations, and a member of the website’s Editorial board. She holds a double MA degree in International Relations from the University of Kent and the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. Since 2012, she has worked in the human rights sector with various non-profit organisations in Ireland and the UK, focusing on areas such as ethnic minority and refugee rights and migration. Richard Sakwa is Professor of Russian and European Politics at the University of Kent, an Associate Fellow of the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, and a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences. His main research interests are Russian domestic and international politics, European international relations and comparative democratisation. Recent books include The Crisis of Russian Democracy: The Dual State, Factionalism, and the Medvedev Succession (Cambridge University Press, 2011), Putin and the Oligarch: The Khodorkovsky - Yukos Affair (I. B. Tauris, 2014), Putin Redux: Power and Contradiction in Contemporary Russia (Routledge, 2014) and Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands (I. B. Tauris, 2015). v Note on transliteration The editors of this collection decided to use the more common, anglicised, version of Russian and Ukrainian words in order to make the publication readable for a diverse audience. Please note that in the case of the word ‘Donbas/Donbass’ we left the choice of transliteration to authors’ discretion. vi Ukraine and Russia: People, Politics, Propaganda and Perspectives Contents INTRODUCTION Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska 1 PART ONE - PEOPLE 1. ETHNIC AND SOCIAL COMPOSITION OF UKRAINE’S REGIONS AND VOTING PATTERNS David Marples 8 2. UNDERSTANDING THE OTHER UKRAINE: IDENTITY AND ALLEGIANCE IN RUSSOPHONE UKRAINE Nicolai N. Petro 18 3. BROTHERS GRIMM OR BROTHERS KARAMAZOV: THE MYTH AND THE REALITY OF HOW RUSSIANS AND UKRAINIANS VIEW THE OTHER Olga Onuch 35 4. ROOTS AND FEATURES OF MODERN UKRAINIAN NATIONAL IDENTITY AND NATIONALISM Denys Kiryukhin 57 5. EVERYDAY LIFE AFTER ANNEXATION: THE AUTONOMOUS REPUBLIC OF CRIMEA Greta Uehling 66 6. CRIMEA: PEOPLE AND TERRITORY BEFORE AND AFTER ANNEXATION Ivan Katchanovski 76 7. RUSSIANS IN UKRAINE: BEFORE AND AFTER EUROMAIDAN Mikhail Pogrebinskiy 85 PART TWO - POLITICS 8. UKRAINIAN POLITICS SINCE INDEPENDENCE Andrew Wilson 96 Contents vii 9. THE ORIGINS OF PEACE, NON-VIOLENCE, AND CONFLICT IN UKRAINE Taras Kuzio 103 10. THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON TRANSFORMING RUSSIAN NATIONALISM LANDSCAPE Marlene Laruelle 117 11. AN UNNECESSARY WAR: THE GEOPOLITICAL ROOTS OF THE UKRAINE CRISIS Peter Rutland 122 12. BETWEEN EAST AND WEST: NATO ENLARGEMENT AND THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE UKRAINE CRISIS Edward W. Walker 134 PART THREE - PROPAGANDA 13. ‘HYBRID WAR’ AND ‘LITTLE GREEN MEN’: HOW IT WORKS, AND HOW IT DOESN’T Mark Galeotti 149 14. PUTIN’S NATIONALISM PROBLEM Paul Chaisty & Stephen Whitefield 157 15. VLADIMIR PUTIN: MAKING OF THE NATIONAL HERO Elena Chebankova 164 16. DOMINANT NARRATIVES IN RUSSIAN POLITICAL AND MEDIA DISCOURSE DURING THE UKRAINE CRISIS Stephen Hutchings & Joanna Szostek 173 17. THE UKRAINE STORY IN WESTERN MEDIA Marta Dyczok 186 18. RUSSIA AS UKRAINE’S ‘OTHER’: IDENTITY AND GEOPOLITICS Mikhail A. Molchanov 195 PART FOUR - PERSPECTIVES 19. WESTERN ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AND RUSSIA’S PLACE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Richard Connolly 212 20. DEMOCRACY AND GEOPOLITICS: UNDERSTANDING UKRAINE’S THREAT TO RUSSIA Paul D’Anieri 221 viii Ukraine and Russia: People, Politics, Propaganda and Perspectives 21. PERSPECTIVES FOR RUSSIA’S FUTURE: THE CASE FOR NARRATIVE ANALYSIS Edwin Bacon 229 22. DIVERSITY POLICY IN UKRAINE AND ITS NEIGHBOURS: RUNNING ON THE SPOT AGAIN? Alexander Osipov 238 CONCLUSION Richard Sakwa 247 CONTRIBUTORS 258 NOTE ON INDEXING 266 1 Ukraine and Russia: People, Politics, Propaganda and Perspectives Introduction AGNIESZKA PIKULICKA-WILCZEWSKA E-INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS When, on 21 November 2013, former Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych decided to postpone the EU Association Agreement, few would have predicted that this, in consequence, would lead to a prolonged inter- communal conflict in Europe’s borderland. What started as a peaceful demonstration of support for Ukraine’s pro-European course by thousands of people in Maidan Square in Kiev has developed into a vicious confrontation dividing families, communities and the Ukrainian nation. According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), since the beginning of the conflict, over 500,000 people have left their homes looking for a safe place elsewhere in the country, and hundreds of thousands have fled from Ukraine, mainly to Russia. By February 2015, over 5,000 have been killed and well over 10,000 seriously injured in the conflict in the Donbass. The scale of the human tragedy is immense and, at the time of writing, the conflict is getting increasingly intense and militarised, despite the official ceasefire imposed as a result of the Minsk Accords of 5 September 2014 and various subsequent agreements. Since the beginning of the confrontation, a lot has been written about its root causes, the motivations of the main actors, and possible scenarios for the future. However, in spite of the large number of analyses produced, few have looked at what came to be called the ‘Ukraine crisis’ from the point of view of Russo-Ukrainian relations, and grasped the perspectives of various groups involved, as well as the discursive processes that have contributed to the developments in and interpretations