ISSN 0354-8724 (hard copy) | ISSN 1820-7138 (online) Influence of selected climate parameters on tourist traffic of Kopaonik and Zlatibor mountains (Republic of Serbia) Rastislav StojsavljevićA*, Sanja BožićA, Milica KovačevićA, Milka Bubalo ŽivkovićA, Đurđa MiljkovićA Received: July 8, 2016 | Revised: October 13, 2016 | Accepted: December 14, 2016 Abstract Tourism on Kopaonik and Zlatibor mountains had started to develop decades ago, but at the begin- ning of the 21st century, mountain tourism started to develop rapidly and the number of tourists in the mountain regions of Serbia has significantly increased. Constant improvements of tourism offer and nu- merous tourist activities on the Kopaonik and Zlatibor mountains influenced an upward trend of a num- ber of tourists. The principal aim of this paper is to investigate whether the particular relevant climate parameters, such as mean monthly temperature and a number of snowy days, can affect the increase or decrease of the number of tourists and overnight stays in the analyzed two mountains. For this pur- pose, the regression analysis was used. The results indicate that there is a significant impact of selected climate parameters on tourist traffic in the Kopaonik and Zlatibor mountains. Keywords: Kopaonik, Zlatibor, climate, tourism, regression analysis Introduction ing to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Climate itself can be a factor in attracting tourists, Change, 2013) and its AR5 (Fifth Assessment Report), with favorable climate conditions being an important global surface temperature change for the end of the prerequisite for investments in tourism (Šabić, et al., 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C for all scenarios. 2012). Also, the length and quality of tourist season Also, it is likely to exceed 2°C for two scenarios. All of are often affected by local climatic factors (Scott, et al., this indicates that tourism is largely dependent on cli- 2004; Belen Gomez, 2005). This is why studying the mate and its effect can’t be ignored. relationship between climate parameters and tourist Generally, it is agreed that “climate is a natural traffic is of paramount importance for the travel -in tourism resource and it is an element that, thanks to dustry. Understanding local climate conditions is also human intervention, facilitates tourism and the sat- important in various phases of tourism development: isfaction of demand” (Gómez Martín, 2005). In addi- planning the hotel location, an organization of events, tion, the coherence of climate and tourism activities development of infrastructure, but also for maintain- has led to a development of a new branch of climatol- ing the sustainable number of tourist in various part ogy, tourism climatology (Basarin, et al., 2014). This of the year. Many papers indicate that climatic char- discipline is based on applied climatology and human acteristics of destinations, but also climate change can biometeorology (Freitas, 2003; Matzarakis, 2006). have a major influence on tourist flows (Gössling, et Climate factors in mountain tourism influence al., 2006; Hein, et al., 2009; Giannakopoulos, et al., the tourist flows both in summer and winter months 2011; Dinca, et al., 2014; León, Araña, 2016). Accord- through specific parameters and elements. As moun- А University in Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel management * Corresponding author: Rastislav Stojsavlejvić, e-mail: [email protected] 208 Geographica Pannonica • Volume 20, Issue 4, 208–219 (December 2016) Rastislav Stojsavljević, Sanja Božić, Milica Kovačević, Milka Bubalo Živković, Đurđa Miljković tain tourism is strongly dependent on natural and cul- search are mountain centers known especially for win- tural resources, it is also especially dependent on cli- ter tourism, the use of TCI was considered inadequate. mate conditions, which significantly affect tourism Instead, the regression analysis was used to examine development in mountain areas. These areas are also the effects of climate on tourism flows. considered amongst the most threatened ecosystems On contrary, the use of this index has shown satis- by climate changes (Elsasser, Messerli, 2001). factory results when applied to different type of tour- When it comes to Serbia, and its most visited moun- ist sites, such in the study of Basarin et al. (2014). In tain centers Kopaonik and Zlatibor, majority of scientif- their paper, the data covering the period from 1949 ic papers are dealing with tourist traffic with an empha- to 2012 for two meteorological stations, Sombor and size on comparing tourist arrivals and overnight stays Zrenjanin was used to compute the Tourism Climate with other mountain centers, both domestic and for- Index (TCI) for two special nature reserves in Vojvo- eign. If we analyze scientific papers in climatology filed, dina, North Serbia, “Gornje Podunavlje” near Sombor it is important to mention that Vujević (1961) was one and “Carska bara” near Zrenjanin. of the first researchers who investigating bioclimatolo- Furthermore, Surugiu et al. (2010, 2011) analyzed gy of Kopaonik region. Bursać (1991) induced natural the relation between climate variability and tourism conditions for agricultural and forestry development in activity in Predeal resort, one of the most representa- the wider area of Kopaonik mountain. Stanković and tive ski destination in Romania, showing that tourism Ćirković (2002) showed certain characteristics of tour- activity is largely dependent on meteorological pa- ist traffic on Zlatibor, while Marković (2008) was inves- rameters (temperature and snow -cover depth). Their tigating some aspects of hunting tourism on Zlatibor study shows the existence of a negative relationship mountain. Ducić and Radovanović (2005) investigat- between temperatures and tourism, which means that ed climate characteristics of these two mountains in an increase in air temperature will generate a decrease the book “Climate of Serbia”. In terms of physical-geo- in tourism parameters. graphical research Đurović and Menković (2008) stud- Also, Dinca et al. (2014) studied the stakeholder per- ied the piracy of the Duboka River on the eastern slopes spective on the effects of climate change for tourism of Kopaonik. Kadović et al. (2009) explored types activities in Vatra Dornei complex (spa and mountain of soils in Kopaonik, while Pavlović and Jovanović resort in the northern part of Romanian Carpathians). (2009) studied some aspects of eco- and ethno-tour- In this paper, the authors also emphasize that this des- ism on Zlatibor. Tourism of Zlatibor was also a topic tination depends on to a great extent on climate re- of research by Plavša et al. (2009), and Ivanović (2007), sources which show a clear variability of main param- while evaluation of tourist events was made by Romelić eters on which its outdoor activities are based. et al. (2009). Some aspects of tourism on Kopaonik Due to the lack of similar research in mountain re- were analyzed by Bojović and Plavša (2010; 2011) and gions of Serbia, the main goal of this study is to inves- Jovičić (1992), while Bučić et al., (2015) explored the pos- tigate how chosen climate parameters (monthly mean sibilities for congress tourism development on Zlatibor temperatures and number of snowy days) affect tour- mountain. Moreover, Živanović (2015) studied climate ist traffic in the most attractive mountains in Serbia – influences on forest fires on examples of Kopaonik and Kopaonik and Zlatibor. It is important to note that tour- Zlatibor mountains. Based on the overview of previ- ist traffic in this paper is expressed by a number of tourist ous research, it is evident that there were no studies ex- and their overnight stays (both domestic and foreign). ploring the relationship between climate factors and tourism traffic at the analyzed territory (Kopaonik and Zlatibor mountains). Geographic position of the study area However, there are some similar studies in the re- Kopaonik is the largest mountain range of Serbia that gion, which are related to this research. For instance, extends from the northwest to the southeast with the Joksimović et al. (2013) used Tourism climatic index length of about 75 km, while the maximum width (TCI) as a bioclimatic indicator, developed by Miecz- reaches 40 km in its central part. Kopaonik Mountain kowski (1985) to determine the impact of climate on the is located between Ibar and Sitnica rivers in the west physical comfort of tourists. However, the value of TCI, and southwest, Lab and Toplica in the south and east as also stated by Joksimović et al. (2013), does not in- and Jošanica and medium flow of Rasina at the north. clude the qualitative characteristics of rainfall for the At the northwest, Kopaonik continues in Željin, Goč needs of winter recreation tourism. In their paper, the and Stolovi. The total area of ​​this region is about 2.750 climate conditions during winter months in Žabljak km² (Bursać, 1991). Kopaonik has a good geographi- and Kolašin were ranked as undesirable. However, the cal position. The Ibar magisterial road passes through fact that winter months are suitable for winter tourism, Kopaonik, and this mountain is also connected with were neglected. As the study areas of the current re- the roads to the valley of the South Morava. Distance Geographica Pannonica • Volume 20, Issue 4, 208–219 (December 2016) 209 Influence of selected climate parameters on tourist traffic of Kopaonik and Zlatibor mountains (Republic of Serbia) taken from